EARTHQUAKE PREDICTIONS here have a strong scientific physical basis and are derived through unique mathematical modeling which took three years to develop and is the intellectual property of Dr Reg Roberts. In due course the author will publish the methodology.
The earthquake predictions are regional in scope and the areas involved generally have a radius of 250 km (Los Angeles) or up to a 500 km radius (Tokyo). All the author's study areas around the Pacific Rim, and in the Mediterranean and Caribbean regions, have now been scaled down in size (as of 29 February, 2008) so that they do not exceed areas of 500 km radius from their selected centers, plus an ≈10% error margin on their respective radii to include events which are close to their perimeters. This greater focus should make the predictive modeling much more relevant to centers of population.
The latest entries in the list of regions under study are:
(1) Western Turkey. Earthquake predictions commenced 2 March 2008.
(2) The Mendocino Triple Junction and associated areas of high seismic activity in the southern portion of the Cascadia subduction zone giving rise to earthquake events off the coast of Northern California and Oregon. This very significant region was added on 11 April 2008 to the page for Northern California's predictions.
(3) The Hokkaido Region, Japan, which has experienced two Great Earthquakes since the 1960's. Predictions for this region commenced 21 April 2008.
(4) Southern China - Eastern Sichuan Region. Earthquake predictions for this region commenced 15 May 2008.
(5) The Philippines - Manila Region. Earthquake predictions for the
Philippines commenced 17 May 2008.
(6) Taiwan - Predictions for this region commenced 18 May, 2008.
(7) Columbia, South America - Predictions commenced 12 June 2008 and are temporarily added to the page for Peru, but also in the page for Long-term Forecasts.
The purpose of this web site is to show that the prediction of some 85% of the largest earthquakes for a given region, and for a specified short-term period, is now broadly possible with regard to timing (usually 1-10 days ahead) and magnitude (mostly within 90%), even though the methods used here do not allow prediction of the precise location. All predictions of earthquakes are given in good faith with the aim of aiding seismological research to save lives and property.
The Author Reg Roberts holds a PhD in Entomology from the University of Illinois (1962) and a D.I.C. (Diploma of Imperial College, London (1972). Before his retirement he was a Principal Research Scientist in CSIRO Australia where he studied the population dynamics of pasture insects. Reg is an expert on pattern recognition. Since early in 2005 he has been applying this expertise to studying the ecology and dynamics of earthquakes around the Pacific Rim, the Caribbean, and the Mediterranean regions. His research has already yielded astonishing results which bring accurate earthquake predictions a huge step closer to fulfillment. By sharing these predictions the author hopes that other researchers will benefit in the quest to make accurate predictions.
The Earthquake Prediction Tables for each region (see adjacent menu) are updated frequently and give the predicted and observed magnitude (M) of the largest earthquake for the specified period (a 10-day window, plus an approximate 1-day error margin). The predictions presented here are the product of private research and they are subject to intellectual copyright. No person may use these earthquake predictions without giving due credit to the author. The observed magnitudes and locations are derived from the web sites of the USGS, EMSC, Geoscience Australia, GeoNet (N.Z.), Google Earth, and contributing networks, and this researcher is indebted to their seismologists (see Links below) . No attempt is made here to predict every peak in earthquake activity, because of the constraints of private research. However, all earthquake predictions that are made by this author will remain posted on this web site for at least the last 30 days. As research advances, it is hoped the success rate will improve, but at the present time about 15% of earthquakes cannot be forecast and so readers should expect this when studying the tables. There is a special section of the tables for 2-4 week ' long-term' forecasts. The latest earthquake predictions and events are listed first in the tables.
NOTES FOR ALL TABLES:
. EXPECTED RANGE IN MAGNITUDE is now given as the predicted magnitude +/-1 magnitude (previous to July 2008 it was given as +/-0.5M). Statistical analyses
of over 100 of the latest predictions show that 95% of
them can be expected to fall within +/-1M of the predicted
values, regardless of the region of the world involved. From 14th July 2008, any predictions which fall outside these limits by as little as 0.1M will be considered unsuccessful.
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Disclaimer
The earthquake predictions are given in good faith and with due care, but the author accepts no responsibility for their use, either directly, indirectly, or implied. Any person or organisation who uses these earthquake predictions for any purpose whatsoever, does so at their own risk.
Revised or Cancelled Earthquake Predictions will be clearly indicated within the relevant tables. The original earthquake prediction and date will remain shown together with the revision. Updates may become necessary as more information comes to hand because earthquakes interact in a very dynamic system. Just as in reporting the weather, the latest information must be taken into account to improve earthquake forecasting.
Contact Email for author Reg Roberts
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This web site established October 2007.
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