EARTHQUAKE PREDICTIONS here have a strong scientific physical basis and are derived through unique mathematical modeling which has taken over five years to develop and is the intellectual property of Dr Reg Roberts. In due course the author hopes to publish the methodology. However, as recently as October 2009 one of the most important breakthroughs in the author's research impacted positively on predictions reported here, especially with significant improvements in the accuracy of most Long-term Forecasts.
Disclaimer
The earthquake predictions and long-term forecasts published on this website are given in good faith, however the author accepts no responsibility for their use and interpretation, either directly, indirectly, or implied. Any person or organisation that uses the earthquake predictions or forecasts on this website for any purpose whatsoever does so solely in their own discretion and at their own risk. Although the author endeavours to ensure the effectiveness of such predictions or forecasts, the author does not guarantee to any extent the accuracy thereof. Additionally, the display of advertisements on the right hand side of any pages of this website in no way implies that the author of this website approves, supports, endorses or warrants in any way any aspect of the products or services that may be advertised there.©
The author's forecasts do not cover all countries of the world, and nor do they usually cover all regions within a given country. Forecasts are made only for the specific study regions outlined in the Long-term Forecast Tables and the author does not claim to be able to successfully forecast all large earthquakes in each of these regions.
Finally, the author makes no guarantee whatsoever that this website, and the free earthquake forecasting service provided via this website, will be maintained and updated for any period of time in the future
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*The Disclaimer above also applies to all emails from the author.
October 2009: The ability to forecast large earthquakes, greater than M6.0, more accurately and many days in advance, has been greatly enhanced by a new finding that enabled us to forecast the approximate magnitude of the Padang, Sumatra, earthquake (30 September) two weeks in advance. The Padang earthquake was the first test of our new modelling process. It may be a few months before all the sites below are fully included in the new modelling, and the benefits become apparent. |
The earthquake predictions or forecasts are regional in scope and the areas involved generally have a radius of from 225 km (Puerto Rico Region) up to a radius of 900 km (Tibetan Plateau & Himalayan Region). Most of the author's study areas around the Pacific Rim, and in the Mediterranean, European, Caribbean and other regions, have been scaled down in size so that, generally, they do not exceed areas of 500-600 km radius from their selected centers. This greater focus should make the predictive modeling much more relevant to centers of population.
There are now 41 regions of the world included in the Long-term Forecasts, the latest to be added being the Tibetan Plateau and Himalayan Regions.
The latest entries in the list of regions under study are:
(1) The New Madrid Region , Central USA, was added in April 2011. Since 1975 there have been 5 moderate earthquakes (M5.0-M5.4) (USGS/NEIC source).
(2) The Bucharest region of Romania, extending into Northern Bulgaria, was added in August 2011. Since 1975 there have been two strong earthquakes and two major earthquakes (USGS/NEIC source)
(3) The Tibetan Plateau and Himalayan Regions were added in September 2011. Since 1975 these regions have experienced 37 strong earthquakes and 4 major earthquakes (USGS/NEIC source).
The purpose of this web site is to show that the prediction of some 85% of the largest earthquakes for a given region, and for a specified short-term period, is now broadly possible with regard to timing (up to about a month ahead) and magnitude (mostly within 90%), even though the methods used here do not allow prediction of the precise location. All predictions of earthquakes are given in good faith with the aim of aiding seismological research to save lives and property.
The Author Reg Roberts holds a PhD in Entomology from the University of Illinois (1962) and a D.I.C. (Diploma of Imperial College, London (1972). Before his retirement he was a Principal Research Scientist in CSIRO Australia where he studied the population dynamics of pasture insects. Reg is an expert on pattern recognition. Since early in 2005 he has been applying this expertise to studying the ecology and dynamics of earthquakes around the Pacific Rim, the Caribbean, the Mediterranean regions, and parts of Europe and Asia. His research has already yielded astonishing results which bring accurate earthquake predictions a huge step closer to fulfillment. By sharing these predictions the author hopes that other researchers will benefit in the quest to make accurate predictions.
The Tables of Earthquake Predictions or Forecasts for each region (see adjacent menu) give the predicted and observed magnitude (M) of the largest earthquake for a specified period (usually a 10-day window, or up to a month for Long-term Forecasts). The predictions and forecasts presented here are the product of private research and they are subject to intellectual copyright. No person may use these earthquake predictions and forecasts without giving due credit to the author. The observed magnitudes and locations are derived from the web sites of the USGS, EMSC, Geoscience Australia, GeoNet (N.Z.), Google Earth, Earthquakes Canada (Natural Resources Canada), and contributing networks, and this researcher is indebted to their seismologists. No attempt is made here to predict every peak in earthquake activity, because of the constraints of private research. However, all earthquake predictions and forecasts that are made by this author will remain posted on this web site for at least the last 30 days. As research advances, it is hoped the success rate will improve, but at the present time about 15% of earthquakes cannot be forecast and so readers should expect this when studying the tables. There is a special section of the Menu for 2-6 week Long-term Forecasts.
NOTES FOR ALL TABLES:
. EXPECTED RANGE IN MAGNITUDE is now given as the predicted magnitude +/-1 magnitude, or less. Statistical analyses
show that >85% of predictions can be expected to fall within +/-1M of the predicted
values, regardless of the region of the world involved. Any predictions which fall outside these limits by >0.1M will be considered unsuccessful.
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Revised or Cancelled Earthquake Predictions will be clearly indicated within the relevant tables. The original earthquake prediction and date will remain shown together with the revision. Updates may become necessary as more information comes to hand because earthquakes interact in a very dynamic system. Just as in reporting the weather, the latest information must be taken into account to improve earthquake forecasting.
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