Earthquake predictions, long term forecasts

Forecasts of Largest Regional Earthquakes
for Full Moon and New Moon Periods of

the Lunar Month Ahead

Breakthrough in Research (August 2008)

All new Long-term tables now include the expected dates for each earthquake forecast (column 2 below). This is being made possible by a very important breakthrough in the author's research which is being publicly tested and refined through the earthquake forecasts posted here. The expected dates are indicative only, and not binding.

These earthquake forecasts will now form the basis of any specific short-term predictions (for 10-day periods) which may be made on pages dedicated to the specific regions elsewhere on this web site. These short-term predictions will be subject to reviews of magnitude and timing as events unfold.

NOTES for Long-term Forecast tables below:

The largest earthquakes for each period are likely to fall within the magnitude ranges listed below (probability >85% when magnitude accuracy is compared to the mid range for each case).

Interim events given in the tables are subject to review if a larger
event occurs by the end of the forecast period. However, the forecasts in the first column will generally remain unchanged. If an early review becomes necessary for a given region the date of the review will be shown. Readers should see the dedicated pages for specific regions where short-term predictions, for periods below, may be updated and reviewed.

COLOR CODING of cell backgrounds in column #1 indicates those regions which currently have short-term prediction tables on their respective pages (see side menu above).

The expected dates (in column 2) are indicative only, and not binding. For June/July 2009, about 83% of the long-term forecasts are falling within +/-5 days of the forecast date, and about 64% within +/-3 days. These statistics have been steadily improving. Currently, the success rate* for forecasting magnitudes is about 94% (Jan 2010). Successful forecasts are made up to 39 days in advance, the average being 8 days ahead.
*where magnitude accuracy, as given in the tables, is equal to at least 80%

Why updates may be necessary... because earthquakes interact in a very dynamic system. Just as in reporting the weather, the latest information must be taken into account to improve forecasting.

                                 CURRENT TABLES
            Tables of Recent Earthquakes and Events Pending

Table 26b. January 30 - Feb 13

Full Moon Period (current table)

Table 26a. January 15-29* 2010
New Moon Period (previous table)

Table 27a. February 14-28* 2010

New Moon Period (table in construction)

Please scroll down...

*Allow approximately +/-1 day for earthquakes that occur on the cusp between moon periods. Forecast events will be posted as they become available, with the times of posting given in the table.
Only the observed events subsequent to posting, or any revision, are valid for judging success.

*All dates are UTC

Please note new email address is: reginaldroberts@bigpond.com

October 2009: The ability to forecast large earthquakes, greater than M6.0, more accurately and many days in
  advance, has been greatly enhanced by a new finding
  that enabled us to forecast the approximate magnitude
  of the Padang, Sumatra, earthquake (30 September)
  two weeks in advance. The Padang earthquake was the
  first test of our new modelling process. It may be a few
months before all the sites below are fully included in
the new modelling, and the benefits become apparent.

LAST UPDATE 0045 HOURS 9th February 2010 (UTC)

Table 26b. Regional forecasts for Full Moon Period

from January 30 - February 13* 2010

REGION	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska Anchorage Region newly defined within only 130 km of Anchorage, at Lat 61.225 and Lon -149.889	M2.2-M4.2 expected about Feb 11+/-3 days (posted 0335 hours 25th Jan)	M3.0	94%	2nd February 2010 Lat 61.950 Lon -149.878 84 km N of Anchorage, Southern Alaska (USGS source) forecast 8 days ahead
California 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Feb 9+/-3 days (posted 0035 hours 20th Jan)
Nth California & Sth Oregon Coast & Off Coast within 400 km of Crescent City, California Lat 41.76 Lon -124.20	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Feb 9+/-3 days (posted 0335 hours 25th Jan)	M5.9	68%	4th February 2010 Lat 40.431 Lon -124.929 56 km WNW of Petrolia, CA (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead
California 'Southern' newly defined within only 160 km of Glen Avon, 10 km NW of Riverside, Southern CA at Lat 34.012 Lon -117.484	M2.7-M4.7 expected asbout Feb 11+/-3 days (posted 0124 hours 20th Jan)
Caribbean Puerto Rico Area within ≈250 km of center 60 km NNE of San Juan at Lat 19.00 Lon -65.96	M2.6-M4.6 expected about Feb 7+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 20th Jan)	M3.5	97%	2nd February 2010 Lat 19.373 Lon -65.216 134 km NE of Carolina, PR (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Chile Northern Region within 400 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Feb 2+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 20th Jan)
China Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Feb 3+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 20th Jan)
China Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Feb 3+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 20th Jan)
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Feb 11+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 20th Jan)	M4.9	86%	2nd February 2010 Lat 6.772 Lon -73.013 270 km NNE of Bogota, Northern Colombia (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.8-M6.8 expected about Feb 3+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 20th Jan)	M5.8	100%	7th February 2010 Lat -23.306 Lon -179.856 315 SSW of Ndoi Island, Fiji (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Greece within Lat 36-40°N and Lon 20-25°E	M4.4-M6.4 expected about Feb 12+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 20th Jan)
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Feb 5+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 20th Jan)	M4.6	100%	2nd February 2010 Lat 12.141 Lon -87.706 155 km W of Managua, Nicaragua (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Hawaii New zone within only 85 km of a center point at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on Island of Hawaii	M2.2-M4.2 expected about Feb 7+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 20th Jan)	M3.5	91%	2nd February 2010 Lat 19.209 Lon -155.485 1 km NW of Pahala, HI (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Hokkaido, Japan within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M4.7-M6.7 expected about Feb 11+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 20th Jan)
Honshu Japan Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Feb 8+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 20th Jan)
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M2.3-M4.3 expected about Feb 11+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 20th Jan)	M3.5	94%	2nd February 2010 Lat 43.13 Lon 13.39 53 km S of Anacona, Central Italy (EMSC source) forecast 13 days ahead
Islamabad Region, Pakistan within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M5.0-M7.0 expected about Feb 2+/-3 days (posted 0335 hours 25th Jan)
Java - Sunda Strait Region (includes very southern Sumatra, Indonesia) within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Feb 9+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Feb 3+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)
Mexico Southern Region within ≈500 km of Acapulco, Mexico Lat 16.876 Lon -99.89	M3.1-M5.1 expected about Feb 5+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)	M4.8	85%	2nd February 2010 Lat 18.305 Lon -97.884 90 kim SSE of Puebla, Puebla, Mexico (USGS source)
New Britain/ New Ireland/ Bougainville within ≈500 km of Sulu, New Britain at Lat -5.4 Lon 150.9	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Feb 8+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)	M4.7	98%	6th February 2010 Lat -5.251 Lon 152.097 115 km S of Rabaul, New Britain (USGS source) forecast 17 days ahead
New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Feb 3+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)	M4.5	100%	5th February 2010 Lat -39.50 Lon 177.33 40 km E of Napier, Hawke's Bay, North Island, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 16 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Feb 11+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)	M5.1	98%	5th February 2010 Lat -44.73 Lon 167.39 40 km W of Milford Souind, South Island, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 16 days ahead
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA within ≈500 km radius of Forks, W of Seattle, USA Lat 47.95 Lon-124.38	M2.6-M4.6 expected about Feb 11+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Feb 4+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)	M4.9	94%	6th February 2010 Lat -16.747 Lon -73.256 185 km WSW of Arequipa, Near the Coast of Southern Peru (USGS source) forecast 17 days ahead
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Feb 8+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)
Samoa-Tonga Newly defined within only 250 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Feb 12+/-3 days (posted 0035 hours 20th Jan)	M5.6	84%	6th February 2010 Lat -15.740 Lon -172.942 250 km SSW of Apia, Samoa (USGS source) forecast 17 days ahead
Solomons Region Newly defined within ≈450 km of center at Lat -8.912 Lon 157.307, including Guadalcanal Is. in SE to tip of Bougainville (PNG) in NW sector.	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Feb 3+/-3days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)
Spain Region within ≈400 km of Reillo at Lat 39.905 and Lon -1.875	M2.2-M4.2 expected about Feb 5+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)	M3.0	94%	3rd February 2010 Lat 36.47 Lon -4.50 29 km S of Málaga, Strait of Gibraltar (EMSC source) forecast 14 days ahead
Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Feb 5+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)
Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Feb 4+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)	M5.3	92%	31st January 2010 Lat -2.920 Lon 100.863 180 km WNW of Bengkulu, Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Taiwan Region Newly defined within 225 km of a center near East Coast of Taiwan at Lat 23.763 Lon 121.689	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Feb 11+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)	M6.4	75%	7th February 2010 Lat 23.472 Lon 123.713 225 km ESE of Su-ao, Taiwan (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Feb 11+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)
Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Feb 3+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)	M5.1	100%	31st January 2010 Lat 18.751 Lon 169.394 160 km SE of Port-Vila, Vanuatu (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead

Table 26a. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period

from January 15-29* 2010

REGION	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska Anchorage Region within ≈500 km of a center point 100km South of Anchorage, at Lat 60.317 and Lon -149.79	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Jan 27+/-3 days (posted 1923 hours 8th Jan)	M4.9	92%	25th January 2010 Lat 58.612 Lon -153.490 354 km SW of Anchorage, Kodiak Island Region, Alaska (USGS source) forecast 17 days ahead
California 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M2.4-M4.4 expected about Jan 27+/-3 days (posted 0555 hours 4th Jan)	M3.4	100%	16th January 2010 Lat 36.038 Lon -117.844 223 N of Los Angeles Civic Center (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
Nth California & Sth Oregon Coast & Off Coast within 400 km of Crescent City, California Lat 41.76 Lon -124.20	M2.4-M4.4 expected about Jan 20+/-3 days (posted 0555 hours 4th Jan)	M4.3	79%	17th January 2010 Lat 43.515 Lon -126.647 280 km NW of Crescent City Off the Coast of Oregon (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
California 'Southern' newly defined within only 160 km of Glen Avon, 10 km NW of Riverside, Southern CA at Lat 34.012 Lon -117.484	M1.7-M3.7 expected about Jan 22+/-3 days (posted 0128 hours 7th Jan)	M4.3	63%	16th January 2010 Lat 33.938 Lon -117.017 114 km E of Los Angeles Civic Center (USGS source) forecast 9 days ahead
Caribbean Puerto Rico Area within ≈250 km of center 60 km NNE of San Juan at Lat 19.00 Lon -65.96	M2.9-M4.9 expected about Jan 22+/-3 days (posted 0943 hours 4th Jan)	M3.8	97%	16th January 2010 Lat 19.354 Lon -66.677 112 NNW of San Juan, PR (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
Chile Northern Region within 400 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Jan 24+/-3 days (posted 0555 hours 4th Jan)	M5.0	100%	18th January 2010 Lat -21.726 Lon -70.293 160 km WNW of Calama, Offshore Antofagasta, Chile (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead
China Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Jan 27+/-3 days (posted 0345 hours 14th Jan)	M5.1	82%	30th January 2010 Lat 30.236 Lon 105.612 35 km SSE of Suining, Eastern Sichuan (USGS source) forecast 16 days ahead
China Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89	M3.1-M5.1 expected about Jan 27+/-3 days (posted 0555 hours 4th Jan)	M3.8	93%	16th January 2010 Lat 35.66 Lon 88.31 578 km NW of Nagqu, Xizang (JOPENS & Google Earth sources) forecast 12 days ahead
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Jan 18+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M4.9	94%	29th January 2010 Lat 4.678 Lon -75.938 205 W of Bogota, Colombia (USGS source) forecast 22 days ahead
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Jan 24+/-3 days (posted 0500 hours 7th Jan)	M5.1	93%	26th January 2010 Lat -17.792 Lon -178.687 520 km NW of Nuku'alofa, Tonga (USGS source) forecast 19 days ahead
Greece within Lat 36-40°N and Lon 20-25°E	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Jan 26+/-3 days (posted 0500 hours 7th Jan)	M5.3	83%	22nd January 2010 Lat 38.42 Lon 22.04 34 km NE of Pátrai, Greece (EMSC source) forecast 15 days ahead
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Jan 27+/-3 days (posted 0500 hours 7th Jan)	M5.8	90%	18th January 2010 Lat 13.718 Lon -90.289 105 km SSE of Guatemala City, Offshore Guatemala (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Hawaii New zone within only 85 km of a center point at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on Island of Hawaii	M2.3-M4.3 expected about Jan 18+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M3.1	94%	18th January 2010 Lat 19.981 Lon -155.848 6 km NNE of Puako, HI (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Hokkaido, Japan within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Jan 27+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M4.9	98%	22nd January 2010 Lat 42.483 Lon 148.855 370 km E of Kushiro, Off the Coast of Kokkaido, Japan (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
Honshu Japan Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Jan 21+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M4.6	92%	20th January 2010 Lat 34.95 Lon 139.50 39 km SW of Yokosuka, Near East Coast of Honshu (EMSC source) forecast 13 days ahead
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Jan 24+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M3.1	89%	15th January 2010 Lat 42.92 Lon 13.15 56 km NE of Terni, Central Italy (EMSC source) forecast 8 days ahead
Islamabad Region, Pakistan within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Jan 18+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M5.0	100%	23rd January 2010 Lat 36.61 Lon 71.53 217 km NW of Mingaora, Hindu Kush Region, Afghanistan (EMSC source) forecast 16 days ahead
Java - Sunda Strait Region (includes very southern Sumatra, Indonesia) within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Jan 24+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M4.9	98%	28th January 2010 Lat -9.84 Lon 108.81 258 km S of Kebumen, Java (EMSC source) forecast 21 days ahead
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Jan 20+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M4.7	85%	19th January 2010 Lat 42.31 Lon 72.03 85 km SE of Taraz, Kyrgyzstan (EMSC source) forecast 12 days ahead
Mexico Southern Region within ≈500 km of Acapulco, Mexico Lat 16.876 Lon -99.89	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Jan 20+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)
New Britain/ New Ireland/ Bougainville within ≈500 km of Sulu, New Britain at Lat -5.4 Lon 150.9	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Jan 27+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M6.2	84%	1st February 2010 Lat -6.102 Lon 154.424 125 km W of Arawa, Bougainville (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Jan 27 +/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M4.9	90%	19th January 2010 Lat -37.130 Lon 176.766 120 km NNE of Rotorua, North Island, NZ (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Jan 14+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M3.8	95%	16th January 2010 Lat -43.21 Lon 173.52 80 km NE of Christchurch, South Island (GNS Science/GeoNet source) forecast 9 days ahead
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA within ≈500 km radius of Forks, W of Seattle, USA Lat 47.95 Lon-124.38	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Jan 27+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M3.7	82%	24th January 2010 Lat 48.92 Lon -129.12 232 km SW of Pt Hardy, BC (Earthquakes Canada) forecast 17 days ahead
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Jan 21+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M5.8	84%	25th January 2010 Lat -8.546 Lon -74.467 20 km SSE of Pucalipa, Central Peru (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Jan 19+/-3 days (posted 1043 hours 7th Jan)	M6.1	82%	27th January 2010 Lat 13.684 Lon 125.440 495 km ESE of Manila, Philippine Islands Region (USGS source) forecast 20 days ahead
Samoa-Tonga New region within 500 km of Apia,Samoa at Lat -13.83 Lon -171.748	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Jan 21+/-3 days (posted 1043 hours 7th Jan)	M5.7	90%	25th January 2010 Lat -18.624 Lon -173.676 35 km E of Neiafu, Tonga (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Solomons Region Newly defined within ≈450 km of center at Lat -8.912 Lon 157.307, including Guadalcanal Is. in SE to tip of Bougainville (PNG) in NW sector.	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Jan 22+/-3 days (posted 1043 hours 7th Jan)	M5.6	91%	24th January 2010 Lat -9.171 Lon 157.714 250 km W of Honiara, Solomon Islands (USGS source) forecast 17 days ahead
Spain Region within ≈400 km of Reillo at Lat 39.905 and Lon -1.875	M2.2-M4.2 expected about Jan 27+/-3 days (posted 0540 hours 8th Jan)	M3.0	94%	21st January 2010 Lat 42.0 Lon -7.97 38 km S of Ourense, Spain (EMSC source) forecast 13 days ahead
Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Jan 16+/-3 days (posted 0540 hours 8th Jan)	M5.0	90%	22 January 2010 Lat 3.045 Lon 93.756 545 km W of Medan, Off the West Coast of Northern Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead
Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Jan 23 +/-3 days (revised 0030 hours 20th Jan)	M5.3	98%	25th January 2010 Lat -4.309 Lon 102.655 75 km SE of Bengkulu, Southern Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 5 days ahead
Taiwan Region Newly defined within 225 km of a center near East Coast of Taiwan at Lat 23.763 Lon 121.689	M4.9-M6.9 expected about Jan 19+/-3 days (posted 0540 hours 8th Jan)	M5.0	85%	19th January 2010 Lat 23.84 Lon 121.70 20 km SE of Hualian, Taiwan (EMSC source) forecast 11 days ahead
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	M2.7-M4.7 expected about Jan 18+/-3 days (posted 0540 hours 8th Jan)	M4.0	92%	25th January 2010 Lat 38.84 Lon 26.95 47 km NW of Manisa, Near Coast of Western Turkey (EMSC source) forecast 17 days ahead
Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Jan 24+/-3 days (posted 0540 hours 8th Jan)	M5.9	93%	29th January 2010 Lat -18.956 Lon 169.627 195 km SE of Port-Vila, Vanuatu (USGS source) forecast 21 days ahead

TABLE UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Table 27a. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period

from February 14-28* 2010

REGION	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska Anchorage Region newly defined within only 130 km of Anchorage, at Lat 61.225 and Lon -149.889
California 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M2.7-M4.7 expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
Nth California & Sth Oregon Coast & Off Coast within 400 km of Crescent City, California Lat 41.76 Lon -124.20	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
California 'Southern' newly defined within only 160 km of Glen Avon, 10 km NW of Riverside, Southern CA at Lat 34.012 Lon -117.484	M3.1-M4.1 expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
Caribbean Puerto Rico Area within ≈250 km of center 60 km NNE of San Juan at Lat 19.00 Lon -65.96	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Feb 18+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
Chile Northern Region within 400 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
China Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Feb 21+/-3 days (posted 0800 hours 28th Jan)
China Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89	M3.1-M5.1 expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Feb 23+/-3 days (posted 0800 hours 28th Jan)
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.6-M6.6 expected about Feb 22+/-3 days (posted 0800 hours 28th Jan)
Greece within Lat 36-40°N and Lon 20-25°E	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 27th Jan)
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
Hawaii New zone within only 85 km of a center point at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on Island of Hawaii	M1.7-M3.7 expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
Hokkaido, Japan within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Feb 23+/-3 days (posted 0800 hours 28th Jan)
Honshu Japan Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Feb 19+/-3 days (posted 0800 hours 28th Jan)
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M2.9-M4.9 expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
Islamabad Region, Pakistan within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Feb 22+/-3 days (posted 0800 hours 28th Jan)
Java - Sunda Strait Region (includes very southern Sumatra, Indonesia) within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Feb 21+/-3 days (posted 0800 hours 28th Jan)
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Feb 18+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
Mexico Southern Region within ≈500 km of Acapulco, Mexico Lat 16.876 Lon -99.89
New Britain/ New Ireland/ Bougainville within ≈500 km of Sulu, New Britain at Lat -5.4 Lon 150.9	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Feb 21+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Feb 20+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA within ≈500 km radius of Forks, W of Seattle, USA Lat 47.95 Lon-124.38
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.
Samoa-Tonga Newly defined within only 250 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Feb 20+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
Solomons Region Newly defined within ≈450 km of center at Lat -8.912 Lon 157.307, including Guadalcanal Is. in SE to tip of Bougainville (PNG) in NW sector.
Spain Region within ≈400 km of Reillo at Lat 39.905 and Lon -1.875
Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Feb 20+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 27th Jan)
Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Feb 22+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 27th Jan)
Taiwan Region Newly defined within 225 km of a center near East Coast of Taiwan at Lat 23.763 Lon 121.689	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4
Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)

SAMOA-TONGA REGION has been added to this table

Table 25a. Regional forecasts for Full Moon Period

from January 1-14* 2010

REGION	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska Anchorage Region within ≈500 km of a center point 100km South of Anchorage, at Lat 60.317 and Lon -149.79	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Jan 3+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 22nd Dec)	M3.9	81%	6th January 2010 Lat 57.56 Lon -152.30 340 km SSW of Anchorage (USGS/NEIC & Google Earth sources) forecast 15 days ahead
California 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Jan 5+/-3 days (revised 2345 hours 2nd Jan)	M4.1	89%	7th January 2010 Lat 37.481 Lon -121.799 18 km NNE of San Jose City Hall, San Francisco Bay Area (USGS source) forecast 5 days ahead
Nth California & Sth Oregon Coast & Off Coast within 400 km of Crescent City, California Lat 41.76 Lon -124.20	M2.0-M4.0 expected about Jan 13+/-3 days (posted 2245 hours 22nd Dec)	M6.5	46%	10th January 2010 Lat 40.645 Lon -124.763 43 km W of Ferndale, Offshore Northern CA (USGS source) forecast 19 days ahead NOTE: The latest modellling had not yet been applied to this region, but will apply from Table 26b onwards after a major review has been carried out.
California 'Southern' within 350 km of Escondido, NNE of San Diego, Southern CA at Lat 33.116 Lon -117.083	M2.9-M4.9 expected about Jan 4+/-3 days (posted 2245 hours 22nd Dec)	M4.3	91%	12th January 2010 Lat 33.966 Lon -116.876 127 km E of Los Angeles Civic Center (USGS source forecast 21 days ahead
Caribbean Puerto Rico Area within ≈250 km of a center 60 km NNE of San Juan at Lat 19.00 Lon -65.96	M3.1-M5.1 expected about Jan 6+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 22nd Dec)	M3.7	90%	8th January 2010 Lat 19.567 Lon -66.303 122 km N of San Juan, Puerto Rico (USGS source) forecast 17 days ahead
Chile Northern Region within 400 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Jan 4+/-3 days (posted 2245 hours 22nd Dec)	M4.8	92%	3rd January 2010 Lat -22.523 Lon -68.407 240 km ENE of Antofagasta Chile (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
China Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Jan 11+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 22nd Dec)	M3.9	91%	4th January 2010 Lat 32.13 Lon 105.31 90 km NE of Mianyang, Sichuan, China (JOPENS & Google Earth sources) forecast 13 days ahead
China Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Jan 5+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 28th Dec)	M4.7	96%	1st January 2010 Lat 30.685 Lon 83.743 365 km NNW of Kathmandu, Nepal, but in Western Xizang, China (USGS source) forecast 4 days ahead
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	No forecast	(M4.7)	N/A	11th January 2010 Lat 4.24 Lon -75.72 32 km S of Armenia, Colombia (EMSC source) no forecast was made
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Jan 4+/-3 days (posted 2320 hours 24th Dec)	M5.2	92%	4th January 2010 Lat -21.006 Lon -178.951 420 km SE of Suva, Fiji (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Greece within Lat 36-40°N and Lon 20-25°E	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Jan 4+/-3 days (posted 0815 hours 26th Dec)	M4.3	86%	14th January 2010 Lat 39.23 Lon 22.21 49 km S of Lárisa, Greece (EMSC source) forecast 19 days ahead
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Jan 8+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 28th Dec)	M5.0	94%	6th January 2010 Lat 14.250 Lon -91.879 155 WSW of Guatemala City, Offshore Guatemala, (USGS source) forecast 9 days ahead
Hawaii New zone within only 85 km of a center point at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on Island of Hawaii	M1.0-M3.0 expected about Jan 14+/-3 days (posted 1958 hours 29th Dec)	M1.9	95%	8th January 2010 Lat 19.370 Lon -155.440 15 km SSE of Volcano, HI (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead
Hokkaido, Japan within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Jan 11+/-3 days (posted 0115 hours 30th Dec)	M5.0	98%	14th January 2010 Lat 42.38 Lon 142.959 135 km WSW of Kushiro, Hokkaido, Japan (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
Honshu Japan Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Jan 3+/-3 days (posted 0815 hours 26th Dec)	M4.7	100%	7th January 2010 Lat 36.23 Lon 141.97 124 km E of Hitachi, Near East Coast of Honshu, Japan (EMSC source) forecast 12 days ahead
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M2.3-M4.3 expected about Jan 9+/-3 days (posted 1045 hours 30th Dec)	M4.1	80%	12th January 2010 Lat 43.19 Lon 13.46 46 km S of Ancona, Central Italy (EMSC source) forecast 13 days ahead
Islamabad Region, Pakistan within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Jan 4+/-3 days (posted 0815 hours 26th Dec)	M4.5	96%	6th January 2010 Lat 37.56 Lon 71.11 220 km NE of Qunduz, Hindu Kush Region, Afghanistan (EMSC source) forecast 11 days ahead
Java - Sunda Strait Region (includes very southern Sumatra, Indonesia) within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Jan 5+/-3 days (posted 0115 hours 30th Dec)	M5.0	96%	10th January 2010 Lat -7.830 Lon 107.926 225 km SE of Jakarta, Java (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Jan 5+/-3 days (posted 0115 hours 30th Dec)	M5.3	89%	2nd January 2010 Lat 38.247 Lon 71.495 235 km E of Dushanbe, Tajikistan (USGS source) forecast 3 days ahead
Mexico Southern Region within ≈500 km of Acapulco, Mexico Lat 16.876 Lon -99.89	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Jan 8+/-3 days (posted 0115 hours 30th Dec)	M4.6	98%	6th January 2010 Lat 17.409 Lon -100.551 90 km NW of Acapulco, Guerrero, Mexico (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
New Britain/ New Ireland/ Bougainville within ≈500 km Sulu, New Britain, Lat -5.4 Lon 150.9	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Jan 5+/-3 days (posted 1045 hours 30th Dec)	M5.3	100%	6th January 2010 Lat -4.401 Lon 151.717 55 km WSW of Rabaul, New Britain (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Jan 10+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 28th Dec)	M4.3	96%	3rd January 2010 Lat -38.83 Lon 178.36 30 km SE of Gisborne, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 6 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Jan 10+/-3 days (posted 0115 hours 30th Dec)	M4.6	96%	14th January 2010 Lat -44.12 Lon 168.37 220 km N of Gore, South Island, New Zealand (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 15 days ahead
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA within ≈500 km radius of Forks, W of Seattle, USA Lat 47.95 Lon-124.38	M2.4-M4.4 expected about Jan 10+/-3 days (posted 1045 hours 30th Dec)	M4.1	83%	12th January 2010 Lat 48.68 Lon -128.89 224 km W of Tofino, BC ((Earthquakes Canada) forecast 13 days ahead
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Jan 4+/-3 days (posted 0815 hours 26th Dec)	M5.0	90%	5th January 2010 Lat -16.429 Lon -73.999 330 km SE of Ica, Peru (USGS source) forecast 8 days ahead
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Jan 7+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 28th Dec)	M5.0	96%	12th January 2010 Lat 14.668 Lon 120.506 50 km W of Manila, Luzon, Philippines (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
Samoa-Tonga New region within 500 km of Apia,Samoa at Lat -13.83 Lon -171.748	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Jan 13+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 28th Dec)	M5.5	96%	10th January 2010 Lat -16.735 Lon -174.210 500 km NE of Nuku'alofa, Tonga (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Solomons Region includes region west of Santa Cruz Islands, within ≈500 km of center at Ngalikomba on North Coast of Guadalcanal Island, Solomon Islands at Lat -9.43 Lon 160.31	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Jan 2+/-3 days (posted 0115 hours 30th Dec)	M7.2	69%	3rd January 2010 Lat -8.912 Lon 157.307 295 km WNW of Honiara, Solomon Islands (USGS source) forecast 4 days ahead. NOTE: The latest modellling had not yet been applied to the Solomons, but will apply from Table 26a onwards, and the region has been newly defined for the purpose of these forecasts.
Spain Region within ≈400 km of Reillo at Lat 39.905 and Lon -1.875	M2.1-M4.1 expected about Jan 9+/-3 days (posted 1045 hours 30th Dec)	M3.5	88%	4th January 2010 Lat 37.07 Lon -4.37 39 km N of Málaga, Spain (EMSC source) forecast 5 days ahead
Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Jan 5+/-3 days (posted 0815 hours 26th Dec)	M4.8	96%	4th January 2010 Lat 0.27 Lon 96.82 417 km SW of Medan, Nias Region (EMSC & Google Earth sources) forecast 9 days ahead
Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Jan 4+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 28th Dec)	M4.8	87%	1st January 2010 Lat -2.22 Lon 100.50 142 km S of Padang, Kep. Mentawai Region, Indonesia (EMSC source) forecast 4 days ahead
Taiwan Region Newly defined within 225 km of a center near East Coast of Taiwan at Lat 23.763 Lon 121.689	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Jan 7+/-3 days (posted 0205 hours 25th Dec)	M5.1	88%	12th January 2010 Lat 25.012 Lon 123.324 180 km E of T'ai-pei, Taiwan (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Jan 6+/-3 days (posted 0115 hours 30th Dec)	M3.5	88%	10th January 2010 Lat 37.94 Lon 29.31 27 km NE of Denizli, Western Turkey (EMSC source) forecast 11 days ahead
Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Jan 6+/-3 days (posted 0115 hours 30th Dec)	M5.5	96%	3rd January 2010 Lat -12.898 Lon 166.097 310 km NNW of Luganville, Vanuatu, in Santa Cruz Isl. (USGS source) forecast 4 days ahead

SAMOA-TONGA REGION has been added to this table

Table 25a. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period

from December 16-31* 2009

REGION	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska Anchorage Region within ≈500 km of a center point 100km South of Anchorage, at Lat 60.317 and Lon -149.79	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 24+/-3 days (posted 0620 hours 12th Dec)	M5.4	93%	18th December 2009 Lat 59.04 Lon -153.40 310 km SW of Anchorage, Southern Alaska (USGS source - Preliminary Report) forecast 6 days ahead
California 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Dec 25+/-3 days (posted 0620 hours 12th Dec)	M4.0	95%	22nd December 2009 Lat 39.777 Lon -123.338 211 km NW of Sacramento, Northern California (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead
Northern California & Sth Oregon Coast & Off Coast within 400 km of Crescent City, California Lat 41.76 Lon -124.20	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Dec 24+/-3 days (posted 0010 hours 14th Dec)	M4.0	100%	22nd December 2009 Lat 39.777 Lon -123.338 211 km NW of Sacramento, Northern California (USGS source) forecast 8 days ahead
California 'Southern' within 350 km of Escondido, NNE of San Diego, Southern CA at Lat 33.116 Lon -117.083	M2.6-M4.6 expected about Dec 21+/-3 days (posted 0620 hours 12th Dec)	M5.8	62%	30th December 2009 Lat 32.467 Lon -115.195 37 km SE of Calexico, CA, in Baja California, Mexico (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Caribbean Puerto Rico Area within ≈250 km of a center 60 km NNE of San Juan at Lat 19.00 Lon -65.96	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Dec 27+/-3 days (posted 0010 hours 14th Dec)	M3.4	76%	24th December 2009 Lat 18.645 Lon -65.384 80 km ENE of San Juan, PR (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead
Chile Northern Region within 400 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Dec 21+/-3 days (posted 0620 hours 12th Dec)	M5.2	88%	28th December 2009 Lat -22.288 Lon -69.996 155 km NNE of Antofagasta, Chile (USGS source) forecast 16 days ahead
China Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Dec 28+/-3 days (revised 2318 hours 26th Dec)	awaiting regional output of data
China Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 27+/-3 days (posted 0010 hours 14th Dec)	M4.2	84%	28th December 2009 Lat 30.48 Lon 83.65 253 km NW of Pokhara, Western Xizang, China (EMSC source) forecast 14 days ahead
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Dec 23+/-3 days (posted 0010 hours 14th Dec)	M5.2	81%	18th December 2009 Lat 3.06 Lon -76.27 50 km SE of Cali, Colombia (EMSC source) forecast 4 days ahead
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 27+/-3 days (posted 0010 hours 14th Dec)	M5.2	96%	19th December 2009 Lat -21.648 Lon -174.524 90 km S of Nuku'alofa, Tonga (USGS source) forecast 5 days ahead
Greece within Lat 36-40°N and Lon 20-25°E	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Dec 26+/-3 days (posted 0620 hours 12th Dec)	M4.5	89%	22nd December 2009 Lat 39.18 Lon 20.43 153 km NW of Pátrai, Greece (EMSC source) forecast 10 days ahead
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 19+/-3 days (posted 0010 hours 14th Dec)	M4.7	94%	29th December 2009 Lat 11.037 Lon -86.292 115 km S of Managua, Near Coast of Nicaragua (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
Hawaii New zone within only 85 km of a center point at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on Island of Hawaii	M1.6-M3.6 expected about Dec 20+/-3 days (posted 0500 hours 15th Dec)	M2.7	96%	19th December 2009 Lat 19.90 Lon -156.05 100 km W of Hilo, Island of Hawaii (USGS source) forecast 4 days ahead
Hokkaido, Japan within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Dec 24+/-3 days (posted 0010 hours 14th Dec)	M5.2	92%	28th December 2009 Lat 43.259 Lon 144.519 35 NNE of Kushiro, Hokkaido, Japan (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead
Honshu Japan Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 21+/-3 days (posted 0620 hours 12th Dec)	M5.3	94%	17th December 2009 Lat 36.392 Lon 139.487 85 km NNW of Tokyo, Eastern Honshu, Japan (USGS source) forecast 5 days ahead
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M2.7-M4.7 expected about Dec 23+/-3 days (posted 0620 hours 15th Dec)	M3.5	94%	21st December 2009 Lat 46.10 Lon 13.37 59 km NW of Trieste, Northern Italy (EMSC source) forecast 6 days ahead
Islamabad Region, Pakistan within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Dec 20+/-3 days (posted 0310 hours 14th Dec)	M4.5	96%	18th December 2009 Lat 36.42 Lon 71.69 65 km NNW of Chitral, Pakistan (USGS source - Preliminary Report) forecast 4 days ahead
Java - Sunda Strait Region (includes very southern Sumatra, Indonesia) within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Dec 18+/-3 days (posted 0620 hours 12th Dec)	M4.7	98%	27th December 2009 Lat -8.00 Lon 106.22 138 km SW of Cibadak, South of Java (EMSC source) forecast 15 days ahead
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 23+/-3 days (posted 0310 hours 14th Dec)	M5.2	96%	22nd December 2009 Lat 41.84 Lon 73.22 140 km NE of Andijon, Kyrgyzstan (EMSC source) forecast 8 days ahead
Mexico Southern Region within ≈500 km of Acapulco, Mexico Lat 16.876 Lon -99.89	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Dec 26+/-3 days (posted 0620 hours 12th Dec)	M4.2	79%	21st December 2009 Lat 17.04 Lon -99.73 30 km NE of Acapulco, Guerrero, Mexico (USGS source) forecast 9 days ahead
New Britain/ New Ireland/ Bougainville within ≈500 km Sulu, New Britain, Lat -5.4 Lon 150.9	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 24+/-3 days (posted 0310 hours 14th Dec)	M5.4	92%	29th December 2009 Lat -5.168 Lon 152.178 120 km SW of Taron, New Ireland (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Dec 21+/-3 days (revised 2120 hours 18th Dec)	M4.7	96%	21st December 2009 Lat -37.64 Lon 177.34 240 km E of Auckland, in Bay of Plenty, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 3 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 23+/-3 days (posted 0310 hours 14th Dec)	M4.6	92%	15th December 2009 at 2250 hours Lat -44.42 Lon 168.19 200 km N of Gore, Fiorland, South Island, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 1 day ahead
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA within ≈500 km radius of Forks, W of Seattle, USA Lat 47.95 Lon-124.38	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Dec 28+/-3 days (posted 0310 hours 14th Dec)	M4.1	85%	23rd December 2009 Lat 50.55 Lon -130.37 208 km W of Pt Hardy, BC (Earthquakes Canada) forecast 9 days ahead
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Dec 28+/-3 days (posted 1100 hours 12th Dec)	M5.5	100%	24th December 2009 Lat -15.76 Lon -73.98 267 km SE of Ica, Southern Peru (EMSC source) forecast 12 days ahead
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	M5.0-M7.0 expected about Dec 22+/-3 days (posted 0020 hours 13th Dec)	M5.4	90%	21st December 2009 Lat 17.303 Lon 121.487 300 km N of Manila, Luzon (USGS source) forecast 8 days ahead
Samoa-Tonga New region within 500 km of Apia,Samoa at Lat -13.83 Lon -171.748	M5.0-M7.0 expected about Dec 29+/-3 days (posted 0800 hours 15th Dec)	M5.6	93%	25th December 2009 Lat -15.936 Lon -173.040 275 km SW of Apia, Samoa & 75 km E of Hihifo, Tonga (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead
Solomons Region includes region west of Santa Cruz Islands, within ≈500 km of center at Ngalikomba on North Coast of Guadalcanal Island, Solomon Islands at Lat -9.43 Lon 160.31	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Dec 24+/-3 days (posted 0310 hours 14th Dec)	awaiting regional output of data
Spain Region within ≈400 km of Reillo at Lat 39.905 and Lon -1.875	M2.1-M4.1 expected about Dec 27+/-3 days (posted 0310 hours 14th Dec)	M2.8	90%	28th December 2009 Lat 43.17 Lon -0.82 78 km NE of Pamplona, Spain (EMSC source) forecast 14 days ahead
Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 28+/-3 days (posted 2305 hours 12th Dec)	M5.1	98%	19th December 2009 Lat 2.709 Lon 96.053 305 km WSW of Medan, Simeulue, Indonesia (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M6.0-M8.0 expected about Dec 25+/-3 days (posted 2305 hours 12th Dec)	M6.0	86%	23rd December 2009 Lat -1.420 Lon 99.439 115 km WSW of Padang, Kep. Mentawai Region, Indonesia (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Taiwan Region within ≈500 km of a center about 300 km E of Taiwan at Lat 23.92 Lon 124.58	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 27+/-3 days (posted 2204 hours 13th Dec)	M6.4	78%	19th December 2009 Lat 23.763 Lon 121.689 145 S of T'ai-pei, Taiwan (USGS source) forecast 6 days ahead
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Dec 29+/-3 days (posted 0620 hours 15th Dec)	M4.0	100%	18th December 2009 Lat 37.04 Lon 29.15 83 km S of Denizli, Western Turkey (EMSC source) forecast 3 days ahead
Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Dec 27+/-3 days (posted 0310 hours 14th Dec)	M5.0	94%	29th December 2009 Lat -12.530 Lon 166.480 340 km NNW of Luganville, Vanuatu, in Santa Cruz Islands Region (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead

Table 24b. Regional forecasts for Full Moon Period

from December 2-15* 2009

REGION	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska Anchorage Region within ≈500 km of a center point 100km South of Anchorage, at Lat 60.317 and Lon -149.79	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Dec 5+/-3 days (posted 0955 hours 12th Nov)	M4.3	94%	6th December 2009 Lat 58.24 Lon -155.85 470 km SW of Anchorage, Alaska Peninsula (USGS source) forecast 24 days ahead
California 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 5+/-3 days (posted 1900 hours 26th Nov)	M3.3	66%	11th December 2009 Lat 35.936 Lon -120.489 6 km NW of Parkfield, CA (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
Nth California & Sth Oregon Coast & Off Coast within 400 km of Crescent City, California Lat 41.76 Lon -124.20	M2.0-M4.0 expected about Dec 10+/-3 days (posted 0315 hours 20th Nov)	M3.5	86%	14th December 2009 Lat 40.417 Lon -125.311 87 km W of Petrolia, CA (USGS source, subject to review) forecast 24 days ahead
California 'Southern' within 350 km of Escondido, NNE of San Diego, Southern CA at Lat 33.116 Lon -117.083	M3.1-M5.1 expected about Dec 6+/-3 days (posted 0210 hours 27th Nov)	M3.7	90%	6th December 2009 12 km ENE of Guadalupe Victoria, Baja CA, Mexico (USGS source) forecast 9 days ahead
Caribbean Puerto Rico Area within ≈250 km of a center 60 km NNE of San Juan at Lat 19.00 Lon -65.96	M3.1-M5.1 expected about Dec 10+/-3 days (posted 0855 hours 29th Nov)	M3.6	88%	7th December 2009 Lat 19.367 Lon -66.307 100 km N of San Juan, PR (USGS source) forecast 8 days ahead
Chile Northern Region within ≈375 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Dec 8+/-3 days (posted 0955 hours 12th Nov)	M4.8	94%	2nd December 2009 Lat -22.889 Lon -70.503 85 km N of Antofagasta, Offshore Antofagasta, Chile (USGS source) forecast 20 days ahead
China Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Dec 9+/-3 days (posted 0855 hours 29th Nov)	M3.7	70%	7th December 2009 Lat 31.41 Lon 103.74 70 km NW of Deyang, Sichuan (Jopens & Google Earth sources) forecast 8 days ahead
China Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Dec 12+/-3 days (posted 0315 hours 20th Nov)	M4.8	100%	6th December 2009 Lat 33.33 Lon 88.73 467 km NW of Lasa, Western Xizang, China (EMSC source) forecast 16 days ahead
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	M3.10-M5.1 expected about Dec 8+/-3 days (posted 0315 hours 20th Nov)	Nil
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Dec 5+/-3 days (posted 0315 hours 20th Nov)	M5.0	96%	2nd December 2009 Lat -17.874 Lon -178.585 320 km E of Suva, Fiji Region (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
Greece within Lat 36-40°N and Lon 20-25°E	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Dec 11+/-3 days (posted 0210 hours 27th Nov)	M4.6	100%	4th December 2009 Lat 38.925 Lon 22.043 180 km NW of Athens, Greece (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 6+/-3 days (posted 0650 hours 30th Oct)	M5.0	100%	7th December 2009 Lat 13.99 Lon -92.41 103 km S of Tapachula, Offshore Guatemala (EMSC source) forecast 38 days ahead
Hawaii within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 19.9 Lon -155.9 on Island of Hawaii	M1.5-M3.5 expected about Dec 15+/-3 days (posted 0855 hours 29th Nov)	M2.9	86%	15th December 2009 Lat 20.104 Lon -155.913 17 km SSW of Hawi, HI (USGS source) forecast 16 days ahead
Hokkaido, Japan within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M4.4-M6.4 expected about Dec 9+/-3 days (posted 0855 hours 29th Nov)	M4.8	89%	16th December 2009 Lat 41.28 Lon 141.43 76 km NE of Aomori, Hokkaido (EMSC source) forecast 17 days ahead
Honshu Japan Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Dec 11+/-3 days (posted 0855 hours 29th Nov)	M5.0	96%	2nd December 2009 Lat 37.234 Lon 141.352 225 km NE of Tokyo, Off the East Coast of Honshu, JAPAN (USGS source) forecast 3 days ahead
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M2.7-M4.7 expected about Dec 8+/-3 days (posted 0315 hours 20th Nov)	M4.2	88%	15th December 2009 Lat 43.04 Lon 12.19 18 km SW of Perugia, Central Italy (EMSC source) forecast 25 days ahead
Islamabad Region, Pakistan within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Dec 12+/-3 days (posted 0315 hours 20th Nov)	M4.0	85%	1st December 2009 Lat 35.84 Lon 70.41 157 km NW of Jalalabad, Hindu Kusg Region, Afghanistan (EMSC source) forecast 11 days ahead
Java - Sunda Strait Region (includes very southern Sumatra, Indonesia) within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Dec 12+/-3 days (posted 0210 hours 27th Nov)	M5.0	92%	8th December 2009 Lat -4.80 Lon 103.10 155 km SSE of Bengkulu, Southern Sumatra ((USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Dec 8+/-3 days (posted 0315 hours 20th Nov)	M5.4	85%	6th December 2009 Lat 35.803 Lon 77.348 185 km N of Leh, Kashmir, Kashmir-Xinjiang Border Region (USGS source) forecast 16 days ahead
Mexico Southern Region within ≈500 km of Acapulco, Mexico Lat 16.876 Lon -99.89	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Dec 7+/-3 days (posted 0855 hours 29th Nov)	M4.7	96%	16th December 2009 Lat 16.86 Lon -94.49 35 km NE of Niltepec, Oaxaca, Mexico (EMSC source) forecast 17 days ahead
New Britain/ New Ireland/ Bougainville within ≈500 km Sulu, New Britain, Lat -5.4 Lon 150.9	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Dec 9+/-3 days (posted 0210 hours 27th Nov)	M5.8	90%	14th December 2009 Lat -6.03 Lon 154.54 115 W of Arawa, Bougainville Region, PNG (EMSC source) forecast 17 days ahead
New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Dec 12+/-3 days (posted 0650 hours 30th Oct)	M5.1	88%	8th December 2009 Lat -40.56 Lon 174.85 80 km N of Wellington, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 39 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Dec 9+/-3 days (posted 0315 hours 20th Nov)	M5.0	84%	12th December 2009 Lat -46.11 Lon 166.40 160 km W of Invercargill, Fiordland, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 22 days ahead
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA within ≈500 km radius of Forks, W of Seattle, USA Lat 47.95 Lon-124.38	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Dec 5+/-3 days (posted 0315 hours 20th Nov)	M3.6	90%	14th December 2009 Lat 47.39 Lon -129.13 308 km WSW of Tofino, BC (Earthquakes Canada) forecast 24 days ahead
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Dec 5+/-3 days (posted 0855 hours 29th Nov)	M4.3	96%	1st December 2009 Lat -17.23 Lon -69.74 100 km NE of Tacna, Southern Peru (USGS preliminary report) forecast 2 days ahead
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	M3.8-M4.8 expected about Dec 10+/- 3 days (posted 0855 hours 29th Nov)	M4.5	84%	6th December 2009 Lat 14.216 Lon 120.768 50 km SSW of Manila, Luzon, Philippines (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
Solomons Region includes region west of Santa Cruz Islands, within ≈500 km of center at Ngalikomba on North Coast of Guadalcanal Island, Solomon Islands at Lat -9.43 Lon 160.31	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 4+/-3 days (posted 0315 hours 20th Nov)	M4.1	82%	2nd December 2009 Lat -10.81 Lon 164.58 135 km W of Lata, Santa Cruz Islands (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
Spain Region within ≈400 km of Reillo at Lat 39.905 and Lon -1.875	M2.6-M4.6 expected about Dec 7+/-3 days (posted 0315 hours 20th Nov)	M2.7	75%	15th December 2009 Lat 43.20 Lon -1.03 66 km NE of Pamplona, Pyrennes (EMSC source) forecast 25 days ahead
Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Dec 6+/-3 days (posted 0650 hours 30th Oct)	M6.0	77%	9th December 2009 Lat 2.788 Lon 95.951 310 km WSW of Medan, Simeulue, Indonesia (USGS source) forecast 40 days ahead
Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 12+/-3 days (posted 0210 hours 27th Nov)	M5.0	100%	8th December 2009 Lat -5.021 Lon 102.906 155 km SSE of Bengkulu, Southern Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Taiwan Region within ≈500 km of a center about 300 km E of Taiwan at Lat 23.92 Lon 124.58	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Dec13+/-3 days (posted 0315 hours 20th Nov)	M4.2	88%	7th December 2009 Lat 22.69 Lon 119.93 37 km W of Zuoying, Taiwan (JOPENS and Google Earth sources) forecast 17 days ahead
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Dec 10+/-3 days (posted 0315 hours 20th Nov)	M5.1	78%	4th December 2009 Lat 37.91 Lon 28.72 35 km WNW of Denizli, Western Turkey (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead
Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 6+/-3 days (posted 0315 hours 20th Nov)	M5.1	98%	11th December 2009 Lat -12.504 Lon 166.583 340 km N of Luganville, Vanuatu (USGS source) forecast 21 days ahead

Table 24a. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period

from November 17- December 1* 2009

REGION	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska Anchorage Region within ≈500 km of a center point 100km South of Anchorage, at Lat 60.317 and Lon -149.79	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Nov 27+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M3.4	71%	30th November 2009 Lat 59.941 Lon -152.857 219 km SW of Anchorage, Southern Alaska (USGS source) forecast 19 days ahead
California 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M2.4-M4.4 expected about Nov 28+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M3.7	92%	24th November 2009 Lat 38.818 Lon -122.790 118 km WNW from Sacramento, CA (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Nth California & Sth Oregon Coast & Off Coast within 400 km of Crescent City, California Lat 41.76 Lon -124.20	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Nov 25+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M2.9	74%	21st November 2009 Lat 40.30 Lon -124.53 65 km SSW of Eureka, CA (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead
California 'Southern' within 350 km of Escondido, NNE of San Diego, Southern CA at Lat 33.116 Lon -117.083	M2.4-M4.4 expected about Nov 28+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M3.9	87%	24th November 2009 Lat 32.719 Lon -18.246 103 km W of San Diego, Southern CA (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Caribbean Puerto Rico Area within ≈250 km of a center 60 km NNE of San Juan at Lat 19.00 Lon -65.96	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Nov 24+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M3.9	98%	27th November 2009 Lat 19.492 Lon -66.243 113 km N of San Juan, Puerto Rico (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Chile Northern Region within ≈375 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Nov 24+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M4.9	98%	21st November 2009 Lat -19.68 Lon -70.69 84 km NW of Iquique Offshore Tarapaca, Chile (EMSC source) forecast 10 days ahead
China Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°	M5.0-M7.0 expected about Nov 22+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M5.2	87%	27th November 2009 Lat 31.220 Lon 103.826 65 km NNW of Chengdu, Eastern Sichuan, China (USGS source) forecast 16 days ahead
China Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Nov 24+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M5.1	82%	20th November 2009 Lat 30.745 Lon 83.445 205 km NE of Jumla, Nepal, but in Western Xizang, China (USGS source) forecast 9 days ahead
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Nov 26+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M4.5	91%	19th November 2009 Lat 6.722 Lon -72.980 265 km NNE of Bogota, Northern Colombia (USGS source) forecast 8 days ahead
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Nov 28+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M6.3	87%	22nd November 2009 Lat -17.789 Lon -178.435 335 km E of Suva, Fiji (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Greece within Lat 36-40°N and Lon 20-25°E	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Nov 28+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M5.0	90%	26th November 2009 Lat 36.164 Lon 21.464 285 km SW of Athens, Southern Greece (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Nov 23+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M5.9	81%	26th November 2009 Lat 13.458 Lon -89.924 70 km SW of Santa Ana, El Salvador (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
Hawaii within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 19.9 Lon -155.9 on Island of Hawaii	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Nov 24+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M2.9	83%	24th November 2009 Lat 19.182 Lon -155.469 3 km SSE of Pahala, HI (USGS source, subject to review) forecast 13 days ahead
Hokkaido, Japan within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Nov 24+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M5.0	98%	21st November 2009 Lat 45.710 Lon 142.336 55 km ENE of Wakkanai, Hokkaido, Japan (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead
Honshu Japan Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Nov 23+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M4.9	89%	21st November 2009 Lat 37.025 Lon 139.867 150 km N of Tokyo, Eastern Honshu (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M2.3-M4.3 expected about Nov 20+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M4.7	70%	23rd November 2009 Lat 39.618 Lon 15.348 350 km SE of Rome, Italy (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
Islamabad Region, Pakistan within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Nov 20+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M4.3	86%	22nd November 2009 Lat 35.51 Lon 72.88 94 km NE of Mingaora, Pakistan (EMSC source) forecast 11 days ahead
Java - Sunda Strait Region (includes very southern Sumatra, Indonesia) within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Nov 26+/-3days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M5.4	98%	18th November 2009 Lat -9.350 Lon 107.441 265 km Sof Bandung, Java (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Nov 23+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M4.2	79%	20th November 2009 Lat 39.55 Lon 73.57 129 km SE of Os, Kyrgyzstan (EMSC source) forecast 9 days ahead
Mexico Southern Region within ≈500 km of Acapulco, Mexico Lat 16.876 Lon -99.89	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Nov 27+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M4.6	98%	23rd November 2009 Lat 17.951 Lon -101.310 280 km SW of Mexico City (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
New Britain/ New Ireland/ Bougainville within ≈500 km Sulu, New Britain, Lat -5.4 Lon 150.9	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Nov 22+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M5.2	94%	1st December 2009 Lat -4.933 Lon 151.951 85 km SSW of Rabaul, New Britain Region, PNG (USGS source) forecast 20 days ahead
New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M4.6-M6.6 expected about Nov 22+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M5.1	91%	19th November 2009 Lat -40.42 Lon 175.59 120 NE of Wellington, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 8 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Nov 28+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M5.3	81%	23rd November 2009 Lat -46.48 Lon 165.29 240 km W of Invercargill, Off South Island of NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 12 days ahead
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA within ≈500 km radius of Forks, W of Seattle, USA Lat 47.95 Lon-124.38	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Nov 28+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M3.5	100%	28th November 2009 Lat 49.06 Lon -129.87 253 km WSW of Pt. Hardy, B.C., Canada (Earthquakes Canada) forecast 17 days ahead
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center at Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Nov 28+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M5.1	96%	28th November 2009 Lat -15.636 Lon -74.916 455 km SSE of Lima, Off the Coast of Southern Peru (USGS source) forecast 17 days ahead
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Nov 20+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M5.4	98%	2nd December 2009 Lat 12.22 Lon 125.57 105 km E of Calbayog, Samar, Philippines (USGS source) forecast 21 days ahead
Solomons Region includes region west of Santa Cruz Islands, within ≈500 km of a center at Ngalikomba on North Coast of Guadalcanal Island, Solomon Islands at Lat -9.43 Lon 160.31	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Nov 25+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M5.0	92%	22nd November 2009 Lat -9.978 Lon 161.431 170 km ESE of Honiara, Solomon Islands (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Spain Region within ≈400 km of Reillo at Lat 39.905 and Lon -1.875	M2.4-M4.4 expected about Nov 23+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M2.9	85%	27th November 2009 Lat 37.05 Lon -5.39 54 km SE of Dos hermanas Spain (EMSC source) forecast 16 days ahead
Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Nov 27+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M4.6	96%	26th November 2009 Lat 4.715 Lon 96.252 135 SE of Banda Aceh, Northern Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M4.6-M6.6 expected about Nov 27+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M4.5	80%	25th November 2009 Lat -2.31 Lon 100.73 157 km S of Padang, Kep. Mentawai, Sumatra (EMSC source) forecast 14 days ahead
Taiwan Region within ≈500 km of a center about 300 km E of Taiwan at Lat 23.92 Lon 124.58	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Nov 25+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M4.5	100%	21st November 2009 Lat 24.191 Lon 121.884 105 km SSE of T'ai-pei, Taiwan (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Nov 27+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M4.5	89%	25th November 2009 Lat 37.924 Lon 28.960 20 km NNW of Denizli, Turkey (USGS siource) forecast 14 days ahead
Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15	M4.4-M6.4 expected about Nov 21+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)	M5.7	95%	1st December 2009 Lat -17.02 Lon 167.64 106 km NW of Port-Vila, Vanuatu (EMSC source) forecast 20 days ahead

Table 23b. Regional forecasts for Full Moon Period

from November 3-16* 2009

REGION	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska Anchorage Region within ≈500 km of a center point 100km South of Anchorage, at Lat 60.317 and Lon -149.79	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0440 hours 31st Oct)	M3.9	98%	11th November 2009 Lat 60.231 Lon -153.495 229 km WSW of Anchorage Southern Alaska (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
California 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M2.7-M4.7 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 30th Oct)	M3.7	100%	2nd November 2009* Lat 36.40 Lon -117.87 400 SE of Sacramento, CA (USGS source) forecast 3 days ahead
Nth California & Sth Oregon Coast & Off Coast within 400 km of Crescent City, California Lat 41.76 Lon -124.20	M2.8-M4.8 expected about Nov 13+/-3 days (posted 0440 hours 31st Oct)	M5.3	72%	4th November 2009 Lat 43.460 Lon -126.774 283 km NW of Crescent City Off the Coast of Oregon (USGS source) forecast 4 days ahead
California 'Southern' within 350 km of Escondido, NNE of San Diego, Southern CA at Lat 33.116 Lon -117.083	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Nov 9+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 30th Oct)	M4.6	87%	16th November 2009 Lat 35.549 Lon -117.274 188 km NE of Los Angeles Civic Center, Southern CA (USGS source) forecast 17 days ahead
Caribbean Puerto Rico Area within ≈250 km of center 60 km NNE of San Juan at Lat 19.00 Lon -65.96	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Nov 10+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 30th Oct)	M3.5	78%	10th November 2009 Lat 19.69 Lon -64.22 240 km NE of San Juan, Puerto Rico (USGS and Google Earth sources) forecast 11 days ahead
Chile Northern Region within ≈375 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Nov 9+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 30th Oct)	M4.9	94%	4th November 2009 Lat -25.717 Lon -70.611 230 km S of Antofagasta, Chile (USGS source) forecast 4 days ahead
China Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Nov 12+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 30th Oct)	M3.3	73%	12th November 2009 Lat 33.13 Lon 105.27 94 km NW of Guangyuan, Sichuan, China (JOPENS & Google Earth sources) forecast 13 days ahead
China Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89	M4.4-M6.4 expected about Nov 10+/-3 days (posted 0440 hours 31st Oct)	M5.6	96%	7th November 2009 Lat 29.516 Lon 86.055 215 km NNE of Kathmandu, Nepal, in Westerrn Xizang (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Nov 8+/-3 days (posted 0650 hours 31st Oct)	M5.0	90%	2nd November 2009 Lat 4.55 Lon -76.05 220 km W of Bogota, Colombia (USGS and Google Earth sources) forecast 2 days ahead
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0440 hours 31st Oct)	M7.2	71%	9th November 2009 Lat -17.212 Lon 178.413 100 km N of Suva, Fiji (USGS source) (510 km from nominated center of region) forecast 9 days ahead
Greece within Lat 36-40°N and Lon 20-25°E	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Nov 12+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 30th Oct)	M5.1	84%	11th November 2009 Lat 37.552 Lon 20.268 310 W of Athens, in the Ionian Sea. (EMSC siource) forecast 11 days ahead
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 30th Oct)	M4.5	100%	7th November 2009 Lat 14.017 Lon -91.687 145 km WSW of Guatemala City, Offshore Guatemala (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
Hawaii within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 19.9 Lon -155.9 on Island of Hawaii	M2.0-M4.0 expected about Nov 10+/-3 days (posted 0650 hours 31st Oct)	M2.8	93%	15th November 2009 Lat 20.07 Lon -155.37 3 km N of Paauilo, HI (USGS and Google Earth souces) forecast 15 days ahead
Hokkaido, Japan within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Nov 10+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 30th Oct)	M4.9	96%	9th November 2009 Lat 41.98 Lon 142.36 96 km SE of Tomakomai, Hokkaido, Japan (EMSC source) forecast 10 days ahead
Honshu Japan Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Nov 8+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 30th Oct)	M4.7	94%	13th November 2009 Lat 37.28 Lon 142.17 117 km E of Iwaki, Off East Coast of Honshu, Japan (EMSC source) forecast 14 days ahead
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M2.3-M4.3 expected about Nov 13+/-3 days (posted 0440 hours 31st Oct)	M3.3	100%	9th November 2009 Lat 44.12 Lon 11.02 26 km NW of Prato, Northern Italy (EMSC source) forecast 9 days ahead
Islamabad Region, Pakistan within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Nov 13+/-3 days (posted 0440 hours 31st Oct)	awaiting regional printout of data
Java - Sunda Strait Region (includes very southern Sumatra, Indonesia) within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Nov 13+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 30th Oct)	M5.4	93%	12th November 2009 Lat -4.766 Lon 103.026 140 km SE of Bengkulu, Southern Sumatra, Indonesia (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M4.4-M6.4 expected about Nov 13+/-3 days (posted 0440 hours 31st Oct)	M4.9	91%	15th November 2009 Lat 39.594 Lon 72.887 30 km SW of Sary-Tash, Kyrgyzstan (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
Mexico Southern Region within ≈500 km of Acapulco, Mexico Lat 16.876 Lon -99.89	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 30th Oct)	awaiting regional output of data
New Britain/ New Ireland/ Bougainville within ≈500 km Sulu, New Britain, Lat -5.4 Lon 150.9	M4.7-M6.7 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 30th Oct)	M4.8	98%	15th November 2009 Lat -6.636 Lon 155.103 70 km SW of Arawa, Bougainville Region, PNG (USGS source) forecast 16 days ahead
New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Nov 13+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 30th Oct)	M4.5	96%	4th November 2009 Lat -42.04 Lon 172.76 170 km N of Christchurch, New Zealand (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 4 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	M2.8-M4.8 expected about Nov 9+/-3 days (posted 0440 hours 31st Oct)	M3.0	79%	6th November 2009 Lat -45.09 Lon 169.20 110 km N of Gore, Otago, South Island, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 6 days ahead
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA within ≈500 km radius of Forks, W of Seattle, USA Lat 47.95 Lon-124.38	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Nov 13+/-3 days (posted 0500 hours 31st Oct)	M3.5	70%	11th November 2009 Lat 48.83 Lon -128.90 220 km W of Tofino, BC (Earthquakes Canada) forecast 11 days ahead
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of center at Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Nov 13+/-3 days (posted 0650 hours 31st Oct)	M4.6	98%	5th November 2009 Lat -15.80 Lon -70.82 80 km SW of Juliaca, Southern Peru (EMSC source) forecast 5 days ahead
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Nov 10+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 30th Oct)	M4.2	88%	10th November 2009 Lat 12.41 Lon 126.26 470 km SE of nominated Center. (USGS and Google Earth sources) forecast 11 days ahead
Solomons Region includes region west of Santa Cruz Islands, within ≈500 km of center at Ngalikomba on North Coast of Guadalcanal Island, Solomon Islands at Lat -9.43 Lon 160.31	M4.8-M6.8 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0500 hours 31st Oct)	M4.6	79%	16th November 2009 Lat -11.22 Lon 165.42 587 km ESE of nominated regional center (USGS/NEIC & Google Earth sources) forecast 16 days ahead
Spain Region within ≈400 km of Reillo at Lat 39.905 and Lon -1.875	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Nov 7+/-3 days (posted 0500 hours 31st Oct)	M3.9	93%	5th November 2009 Lat 36.91 Lon -3.92 41 km SW of Granada, Spain, in Strait of Gibraltar (EMSC source) forecast 5 days ahead
Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Nov 7+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 30th Oct)	M4.8	98%	12th November 2009 Lat 0.305 Lon 98.478 250 km WNW from Padang, Nias Region, Indonesia (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Nov 13+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 30th Oct)	M5.4	96%	12th November 2009 Lat -4.766 Lon 103.026 140 km SE of Bengkulu, Southern Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead. NOTE: see Java above, because this earthquake satisfies the forecast for both regions which overlap in the area where this M5.4 occurred
Taiwan Region within ≈500 km of center about 300 km E of Taiwan at Lat 23.92 Lon 124.58	M4.4-M6.4 expected about Nov 13+/-3 days (posted 0500 hours 31st Oct)	M5.7	95%	5th November 2009 Lat 23.77 Lon -120.71 17 km S of Nantou, Taiwan (EMSC source) forecast 5 days ahead
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Nov 10+/-3 days (posted 0500 hours 31st Oct)	M4.4	92%	7th November 2009 Lat 36.04 Lon 31.80 61 km S of Alanya, Western Turkey (EMSC source) forecast 7 days ahead
Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15	M5.0-M7.0 expected about Nov 9+/-3 days (posted 0500 hours 31st Oct)	M5.5	92%	8th November 2009 Lat -15.959 Lon 167.913 95 km ESE of Luganville, Vanuatu (USGS source) forecast 8 days ahead

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Breakthrough in Research (August 2008)