Earthquake predictions, long term forecasts

Forecasts of Largest Regional Earthquakes
for Full Moon and New Moon Periods of

the Lunar Month Ahead

Breakthrough in Research (August 2008)

All new Long-term tables now include the expected dates for each earthquake forecast (column 2 below). This is being made possible by a very important breakthrough in the author's research which is being publicly tested and refined through the earthquake forecasts posted here. The expected dates are indicative only, and not binding.

These earthquake forecasts will now form the basis of any specific short-term predictions (for 10-day periods) which may be made on pages dedicated to the specific regions elsewhere on this web site. These short-term predictions will be subject to reviews of magnitude and timing as events unfold.

NOTES for Long-term Forecast tables below:

The largest earthquakes for each period are likely to fall within the magnitude ranges listed below (probability >85% when magnitude accuracy is compared to the mid range for each case).

Interim events given in the tables are subject to review if a larger
event occurs by the end of the forecast period. However, the forecasts in the first column will generally remain unchanged. If an early review becomes necessary for a given region the date of the review will be shown. Readers should see the dedicated pages for specific regions where short-term predictions, for periods below, may be updated and reviewed.

COLOR CODING of cell backgrounds in column #1 indicates those regions which currently have short-term prediction tables on their respective pages (see side menu above).

The expected dates (in column 2) are indicative only, and not binding. For June/July 2009, about 83% of the long-term forecasts are falling within +/-5 days of the forecast date, and about 64% within +/-3 days. These statistics have been steadily improving. Currently, the success rate* for forecasting magnitudes is >85% . Successful forecasts are made up to 39 days in advance, the average being about 20 days ahead.
*where magnitude accuracy, as given in the tables, is equal to at least 80%

Why updates may be necessary... because earthquakes interact in a very dynamic system. Just as in reporting the weather, the latest information must be taken into account to improve forecasting.

                                 CURRENT TABLES
            Tables of Recent Earthquakes and Events Pending

Table 27b. March 1-15* 2010

Full Moon Period (current table)

Table 28a. March 16-29* 2010

New Moon Period (next table)

Table 27a. February 14-28* 2010

New Moon Period (previous table)

Please scroll down...

*Allow approximately +/-1 day for earthquakes that occur on the cusp between moon periods. Forecast events will be posted as they become available, with the times of posting given in the table.
Only the observed events subsequent to posting, or any revision, are valid for judging success.

*All dates are UTC

Please note new email address is: reginaldroberts@bigpond.com

October 2009: The ability to forecast large earthquakes, greater than M6.0, more accurately and many days in
  advance, has been greatly enhanced by a new finding
  that enabled us to forecast the approximate magnitude
  of the Padang, Sumatra, earthquake (30 September)
  two weeks in advance. The Padang earthquake was the
  first test of our new modelling process. It may be a few
months before all the sites below are fully included in
the new modelling, and the benefits become apparent.

LAST UPDATE 1040 HOURS 11th March 2010 (UTC)

Table 27b. Regional forecasts for Full Moon Period

from March 1-15* 2010

REGION	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska Anchorage Region newly defined within only 130 km of Anchorage, at Lat 61.225 and Lon -149.889	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Mar 12+/-3 days (posted 0120 hours 18th Feb)	M3.7	95%	2nd March 2010 Lat 62.405 Lon -149.963 135 km N of Anchorage, Central Alaska (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
California 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M2.1-M4.1 expected about Mar 7+/-3 days (posted 0120 hours 18th Feb)	M3.8	82%	1st March 2010 Lat 36.066 Lon -117.877 226 km N of Los Angeles Civic Center, Central CA (USGS source)
Nth California & Sth Oregon Coast & Off Coast newly defined within 250 km of a center at Lat 41.12 Lon -124.25, 11 km NW of Trinidad, Near Coast of Northern CA	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Mar 9+/-3 days (posted 0324 hours 18th Feb)	M4.5	78%*	6th March 2010 Lat 40.327 Lon -124.705 36 km W of Petrolia, CA (USGS source) forecast 16 days ahead
California 'Southern' newly defined within only 160 km of Glen Avon, 10 km NW of Riverside, Southern CA at Lat 34.012 Lon -117.484	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Mar 12+/-3 days (posted 0120 hours 18th Feb)	M4.0	88%	9th March 2010 77 km ENE of San Diego, Southern California USGS source) forecast 21 days ahead
Caribbean Puerto Rico Area within ≈250 km of center 60 km NNE of San Juan at Lat 19.00 Lon -65.96	M2.8-M4.8 expected about Mar 4+/-3 days (posted 0120 hours 18th Feb)
Caribbean Dominican Republic & Haiti Region New Region within 500 km of Joanneau Haiti (Lat 18.478 and Lon -72.10). The region includes parts of Cuba and Jamaica.	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Mar 14+/-3 days (posted 0912 hours 27th Feb)	M4.1	85%	11th March 2010 Lat 19.760 Lon -71.577 225 km NW of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
Chile Northern Region within 400 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Mar 4+/-3 days (posted 0120 hours 18th Feb)	M6.3	68%*	4th March 2010 Lat -22.330 Lon -68.340 255 km NE of Antofagasta, Chile (USGS source) forecast 16 days ahead
Chile Central Region New Region (posted 28 February after the M8.8 earthquake) within 500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon 71.359	M4.4-M6.4 expected about Mar 12+/-3 days (posted 1110 hours 28th Feb)	M6.6	82%*	5th March 2010 Lat -36.513 Lon -73.116 35 km N of Conception, Chile (USGS source) forecast 5 days ahead
China Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Mar 11+/-3 days (posted 0120 hours 18th Feb)
China Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Mar 4+/-3 days (posted 0120 hours 18th Feb)	M4.5	96%	10th March 2010 Lat 36.412 Lon 86.881 595 km S of Korla, Xinjiang, Xinjiang-Xizang Border Region, China (USGS source) forecast 20 days ahead
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Mar 4+/-3 days (posted 0120 hours 18th Feb)	M4.9	98%	4th March 2010 Lat 4.834 Lon -75.367 145 km W of Bogota, Colombia (USGS source) forecast 16 days ahead
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Mar 12+/-3 days (posted 0332 hours 19th Feb)	M4.9	94%	4th March 2010 Lat -19.857 Lon -177.748 445 km ESE of Suva, Fiji (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Greece newly defined within 225 km of a center point at Tripolis (Lat 37.53 and Lon 22.382)	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Mar 9+/-3 days (posted 0332 hours 19th Feb)	M4.6	96%	9th March 2010 Lat 38.840 Lon 23.546 95 km N of Athens, Greece (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M4.7-M6.7 expected about Mar 9+/-3 days (posted 1050 hours 19th Feb)
Hawaii New zone within only 85 km of a center point at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on Island of Hawaii	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Mar 7+/-3 days (posted 1050 hours 19th Feb)	M4.4	92%	9th March 2010 Lat 19.846 Lon -155.346 33 km WNW of Hilo, HI (USGS source - subject to review) forecast 18 days ahead
Hokkaido, Japan within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Mar 12+/-3 days (posted 1050 hours 19th Feb)	M4.5	90%	10th March 2010 Lat 42.131 Lon 141.172 55 km NE of Hakodate, Hokkaido, Japan (USGS source) forecast 19 days ahead
Honshu Japan Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Mar 10+/-3 days (posted 1050 hours 19th Feb)
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M2.7-M4.7 expected about Mar 4+/-3 days (posted 1050 hours 19th Feb)	M3.3	89%	7th March 2010 Lat 46.2 Lon 12.55 87 km N of Venice, Italy (EMSC source) forecast 16 days ahead
Islamabad Region, Pakistan within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Mar 7+/-3 days (posted 1050 hours 19th Feb)	M5.7	86%	27th February (2321 hours, on cusp of moon periods) Lat 35.912 Lon 70.051 140 km SSW of Feyzabad, Hindu Kush Region, Afghanistan (USGS source) forecast 8 days ahead
Java - Sunda Strait Region (includes very southern Sumatra, Indonesia) within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Mar 11+/-3 days (posted 0510 hours 22nd Feb)
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Mar 12+/-3 days (posted 1050 hours 19th Feb)	M5.0	90%	2nd March 2010 Lat 42.542 Lon 75.584 75 km ESE of Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Mexico Southern Region Newly defined within ≈550 km of Oaxaca, OAXACA, Mex. Lat 17.064 Lon -96.720	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Mar 11+/-3 days (posted 0510 hours 22nd Feb)
New Britain- New Ireland Region Newly defined within 400 km of a center in the Bismarck Sea to the South of New Ireland at Lat -3.58 Lon 150.73	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Mar 11+/-3 days (posted 0335 hours 24th Feb)
New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Mar 12+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 23rd Feb)
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Mar 10+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 23rd Feb)
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA newly defined within 400 km radius of Tofino, Vancouver Island, BC, Canada, and including Seattle, USA, to the SE. Tofino is at Lat 49.144 and Lon -125.892	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Mar 7+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 23rd Feb)	M4.0	88%	4th March 2010 Lat 51.13 Lon -130.66 209 km WSW of Bella Bella, BC (Earthquakes Canada) forecast 9 days ahead
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Mar 6+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 23rd Feb)
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Mar 4+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 23rd Feb)	M5.7	77%*	2nd March 2010 Lat 18.224 L2on 122.466 430 km NNE of Manila, Philippines (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
Samoa-Tonga Newly defined within only 250 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Mar 11+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 23rd Feb)
Solomons Region Newly defined within ≈450 km of center at Lat -8.912 Lon 157.307, including Guadalcanal Is. in SE to tip of Bougainville (PNG) in NW sector.	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Mar 7+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 23rd Feb)	M4.6	98%	2nd March 2010 Lat -9.672 Lon 159.424 60 km WNW of Honiara, Solomon Islands (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
Spain and Portugal - Southern Regions Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco Newly defined within 450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567	M1.7-M3.7 expected about Mar 12+/-3 days (posted 0218 hours 27th Feb)	M4.1	66%*	5th March 2010 Lat 36.11 Lon -8.55 192 km SW of Huelva, Spain, West of Gibraltar (EMSC source) forecast 6 days ahead
Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Mar 9+/-3 days (posted 0135 hours 23rd Feb)
Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Mar 4+/-3 days (posted 0135 hours 23rd Feb)	M6.5	77%*	5th March 2010 Lat -4.032 Lon 100.806 165 km W of Bengkulu, Southwest of Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead
Taiwan Region Newly defined within 200 km of a center near West Coast of Taiwan at Dacheng, Lat 23.847 Lon 120.308	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Mar 12+/-3 days (posted 0934 hours 23rd Feb)	M6.2	72%*	4th March 2010 Lat 22.903 on 120,826 250 km SSW of T'ai-pei, Taiwan (USGS source) forecast 9 days ahead
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Mar 8+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 23rd Feb)
Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Mar 4+/-3 days (posted 0135 hours 23rd Feb)	M6.5	82%*	4th March 2010 Lat -13.598 Lon 167.164 215 km N of Luganville, Vanuatu (USGS source) forecast 9 days ahead

*Most forecasts in this table are higher than expected, perhaps due to the Great Earthquake in Chile on 27th February which reportedly shook the whole earth after all these forecasts were made.

Table 28a. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period

from March 16-29* 2010

REGION	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska Anchorage Region newly defined within ≈130 km of Anchorage, at Lat 61.225 and Lon -149.889	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Mar 23+/-3 days (posted 0445 hours 10th Mar)
California 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M2.7-M4.7 expected about Mar 19+/-3 days (posted 0445 hours 10th Mar)
Nth California & Sth Oregon Coast & Off Coast newly defined within 250 km of a center at Lat 41.12 Lon -124.25, 11 km NW of Trinidad, Near Coast of Northern CA	M2.8-M4.8 expected about Mar 19+/-3 days (posted 0445 hours 10th Mar)
California 'Southern' newly defined within only 160 km of Glen Avon, 10 km NW of Riverside, Southern CA at Lat 34.012 Lon -117.484	M1.7-M3.7 expected about Mar 19+/-3 days (posted 0445 hours 10th Mar)
Caribbean Puerto Rico Area within ≈250 km of center 60 km NNE of San Juan at Lat 19.00 Lon -65.96	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Mar 26+/-3 days (posted 0445 hours 10th Mar)
Caribbean Dominican Republic & Haiti Region New Region within 500 km of Joanneau Haiti (Lat 18.478 and Lon -72.10). The region includes parts of Cuba and Jamaica.	M2.8-M4.8 expected about Mar 23+/-3 days (posted 0445 hours 10th Mar)
Chile Northern Region within 400 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M4.9-M6.9 expected about Mar 19+/-3 days (posted 0445 hours 10th Mar)
Chile Central Region New Region (posted 28 February after the M8.8 earthquake) within 500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon 71.359	M4.8-M6.8 expected about Mar 24+/-3 days (posted 0445 hours 10th Mar)
China Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Mar 27+/-3 days (posted 0445 hours 10th Mar)
China Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Mar 21+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 10th Mar)
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Mar 23+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 10th Mar)
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Mar 24+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 10th Mar)
Greece newly defined within 225 km of a center point at Tripolis (Lat 37.53 and Lon 22.382)	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Mar 21+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 10th Mar)
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Mar 25+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 10th Mar)
Hawaii New zone within only 85 km of a center point at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on Island of Hawaii	M1.7-M3.7 expected about Mar 21+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 10th Mar)
Hokkaido, Japan within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Mar 22+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 10th Mar)
Honshu Japan Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Mar 26+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 10th Mar)
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M2.9-M4.9 expected about Mar 20+/-3 days (posted 0050 hours 11th Mar)
Islamabad Region, Pakistan within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Mar 22+/-3 days (posted 0050 hours 11th Mar)
Java - Sunda Strait Region (includes very southern Sumatra, Indonesia) within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Mar 22+/-3 days (posted 0050 hours 11th Mar)
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M4.8-M6.8 expected about Mar 19+/-3 days (posted 0050 hours 11th Mar)
Mexico Southern Region Newly defined within ≈550 km of Oaxaca, OAXACA, Mex. Lat 17.064 Lon -96.720	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Mar 26+/-3 days (posted 0050 hours 11th Mar)
New Britain- New Ireland Region Newly defined within 400 km of a center in the Bismarck Sea to the South of New Ireland at Lat -3.58 Lon 150.73	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Mar 24+/-3 days (posted 0050 hours 11th Mar)
New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Mar 18+/-3 days (posted 0050 hours 11th Mar)
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Mar 26+/-3 days (posted 0050 hours 11th Mar)
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA newly defined within 400 km radius of Tofino, Vancouver Island, BC, Canada, and including Seattle, USA, to the SE. Tofino is at Lat 49.144 and Lon -125.892	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Mar 24+/-3 days (posted 0050 hours 11th Mar)
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Mar 26+/-3 days (posted 0050 hours 11th Mar)
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Mar 19+/-3 days (posted 0123 hours 11th Mar)
Samoa-Tonga Newly defined within only 250 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Mar 21+/-3 days (posted 0123 hours 11th Mar)
Solomons Region Newly defined within ≈450 km of center at Lat -8.912 Lon 157.307, including Guadalcanal Is. in SE to tip of Bougainville (PNG) in NW sector.	M5.5-M7.5 expected about Mar 19+/-3 days (posted 0625 hours 11th Mar)
Spain and Portugal - Southern Regions Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco Newly defined within 450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Mar 26+/-3 days (posted 0625 hours 11th Mar)
Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Mar 18+/-3 days (posted 1040 hours 11th Mar)
Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M4.6-M6.6 expected about Mar 24+/-3 days (posted 1040 hours 11th Mar)
Taiwan Region Newly defined within 200 km of a center near West Coast of Taiwan at Dacheng, Lat 23.847 Lon 120.308	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Mar 25+/-3 days (posted 1040 hours 11th Mar)
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Mar 21+/-3 days (posted 1040 hours 11th Mar)
Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Mar 19+/-3 days (posted 1040 hours 11th Mar)

Table 27a. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period

from February 14-28* 2010

REGION	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska Anchorage Region newly defined within only 130 km of Anchorage, at Lat 61.225 and Lon -149.889	M1.8-M3.8 expected about Feb 25+/-3 days (posted 0525 hours 11th Feb)	M2.9	97%	21st February 2010 Lat 61.56 Lon -149.84 40 km N of Anchorage, Central Alaska (USGS spource) forecast 10 days ahead
California 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M2.7-M4.7 expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)	M4.1	90%	15th February 2010 Lat 36.076 Lon -117.862 227 km N of Los Angeles Civic Center (USGS source) forecast 19 days ahead
Nth California & Sth Oregon Coast & Off Coast within 400 km of Crescent City, California Lat 41.76 Lon -124.20	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)	M3.3	94%	14th February 2010 Lat 43.016 Lon -126.517 236 km NW of Crescent City Off the Coast of Oregon (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
California 'Southern' newly defined within only 160 km of Glen Avon, 10 km NW of Riverside, Southern CA at Lat 34.012 Lon -117.484	M2.1-M4.1 expected about Feb 18+/-3 days (posted 0850 hours 15th Feb)	M3.6	86%	19th February 2010 Lat 34.015 Lon -117.184 98 km E of Los Angeles Civic Center, Greater LA Area (USGS source) forecast 4 days ahead
Caribbean Puerto Rico Area within ≈250 km of center 60 km NNE of San Juan at Lat 19.00 Lon -65.96	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Feb 18+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)	M3.4	85%	26th February 2010 Lat 19.237 Lon -64.527 178 ENE of Carolina, PR, in the Virgin Islands Region (USGS source) forecast 30 days ahead
Chile Northern Region within 400 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)	M5.3	81%	18th February 2010 Lat -23.105 Lon -68.180 235 km ENE of Antofagasta, Chile (USGS source) forecast 22 days ahead
China Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Feb 21+/-3 days (posted 0800 hours 28th Jan)	M5.0	96%	1st March (at 0625 hours, on cusp of moon periods) Lat 32.347 Lon 105.178 60 km W of Guangyuan, Sichuan-Gansu Border Region, China (USGS source) forecast 31 days ahead
China Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89	M3.1-M5.1 expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)	M4.5	91%	23rd February 2010 Lat 35.236 Lon 91.130 365 km WSW of Golmud, Southern Qinghai, China (USGS source) forecast 27 days ahead
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Feb 23+/-3 days (posted 0800 hours 28th Jan)	M4.6	92%	21st February 2010 Lat 6.696 Lon -72.898 265 km NNE of Bogota, Northern Colombia (USGS source) forecast 24 days ahead
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.6-M6.6 expected about Feb 22+/-3 days (posted 0800 hours 28th Jan)	M5.8	97%	22nd February 2010 Lat -21.551 Lon -173.824 155 km ESE of Nuku'alofa, Tonga (USGS source) forecast 25 days ahead
Greece within Lat 36-40°N and Lon 20-25°E	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 27th Jan)	M4.0	93%	21st February 2010 Lat 37.93 Lon 21.46 42 km SW of Pátrai, Southern Greece (EMSC source) forecast 25 days ahead
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)	M5.6	89%	23rd February 2010 Lat 16.095 Lon -91.174 105 km E of Comitan, Chiapas, Mexico &175 km NNW of Guatemala City, Guatemala (USGS source) forecast 27 days ahead
Hawaii New zone within only 85 km of a center point at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on Island of Hawaii	M1.7-M3.7 expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)	M3.4	79%	23rd February 2010 Lat 19.304 Lon -154.921 22 km S of Pahoa, HI (USGS source) forecast 27 days ahead
Hokkaido, Japan within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Feb 23+/-3 days (posted 0800 hours 28th Jan)	M5.1	92%	20th February 2010 Lat 44.313 Lon 148.458 360 km ENE of Kushiro, Hokkaido, Japan forecast 24 days ahead
Honshu Japan Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Feb 19+/-3 days (posted 0800 hours 28th Jan)	M5.6	88%	28th February 2010 Lat 34.867 Lon 141.444 180 km ESE of Tokyo, Off the East Coast of Honshu (USGS source) forecast 31 days ahead
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M2.9-M4.9 expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)	M3.2	82%	20th February 2010 Lat 44.22 Lon 12.35 25 km SE of Ravenna Northern Italy (EMSC source) forecast 24 days ahead
Islamabad Region, Pakistan within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Feb 22+/-3 days (posted 0800 hours 28th Jan)	M4.7	92%	22nd February 2010 Lat 35.984 Lon 70.689 125 km S of Feyzabad, Hindu Kush Region, Afghanistan (USGS source) forecast 25 days ahead
Java - Sunda Strait Region (includes very southern Sumatra, Indonesia) within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Feb 21+/-3 days (posted 0800 hours 28th Jan)	M4.9	100%	20th February 2010 Lat -7.358 Lon 105.907 165 mkm SW of Jakarta, Java (USGS source) forecast 23 days ahead
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Feb 18+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)	M4.7	94%	17th February 2010 Lat 39.55 Lon 75.22 65 km W of Kashi, Southern Xinjiang, China (EMSC source) forecast 21 days ahead
Mexico Southern Region newly defined within ≈500 km of Oaxaca, OAXACA, Mex. Lat 17.064 Lon -96.720	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Feb 19+/-3 days (posted 1239 hours 13th Feb)	M4.3	98%	26th February 2010 Lat 16.382 Lon -96.533 75 km SSE of Oaxaca, Oaxaca, Mexico (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
New Britain/ New Ireland/ Bougainville within ≈500 km of Sulu, New Britain at Lat -5.4 Lon 150.9	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)	M4.9	94%	24th February 2010 Lat -4.66 Lon 153.3 120 E of Kokopo, New Ireland Region, PNG (EMSC source) forecast 28 days ahead
New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Feb 21+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)	M5.0	90%	18th February 2010 Lat -40.17 Lon 173.78 150 km NW of Wellington, North Island, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 22 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Feb 20+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)	M5.1	84%	28th February 2010, (0514 hours, on cusp of moons) Lat -45.680 Lon 166.97 140 km NW of Invercargill, South Island, NZ (USGS source) forecast 32 days ahead
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA newly defined within 400 km radius of Tofino, Vancouver Island, BC, Canada, and including Seattle, USA, to the SE. Tofino is at Lat 49.144 and Lon -125.892	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Feb 20+/-3 days (posted 0805 hours 12th Feb)	M3.8	95%	22nd February 2010 Lat 50.58 Lon -130.41 211 km W of Pt Hardy, BC (Earthquakes Canada) forecast 10 days ahead
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Feb 23+/-3 days (posted 0805 hours 12th Feb)	M4.7	96%	1st March 2010, 0948 hrs (on cusp of moon periods) Lat -7.954 Lon -74.002 75 km NE of Pucallpa, Peru (USGS source) forecast 17 days ahead
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Feb 22+/-3 days (posted 0345 hours 11th Feb)	M5.1	94%	16th February 2010 Lat 19.07 Lon 121.1 495 km N of Manila, Babuyan Islands Region, Philippines (USGS source) forecast 5 days ahead
Samoa-Tonga Newly defined within only 250 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Feb 20+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)	M5.0	100%	19th February 2010 Lat -15.274 Lon -173.492 250 km SW of Apia, Tonga (USGS source) forecast 23 days ahead
Solomons Region Newly defined within ≈450 km of center at Lat -8.912 Lon 157.307, including Guadalcanal Is. in SE to tip of Bougainville (PNG) in NW sector.	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Feb 22+/-3 days (posted 0345 hours 11th Feb)	M4.9	100%	17th February 2010 Lat -8.68 Lon 157.20 309 km W of Honiara, Solomon Islands (USGS source) forecast 6 days ahead
Spain Region within ≈400 km of Reillo at Lat 39.905 and Lon -1.875	M1.2-M3.2 expected about Feb 20+/-3 days (posted 0345 hours 11th Feb)	M3.1	71%	19th February 2010 Lat 43.20 Lon -0.64 92 km NE of Pamplona, Spain (EMSC source) forecast 8 days ahead
Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Feb 20+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 27th Jan)	M5.1	88%	16th February 2010 Lat 4.613 Lon 93.077 270 WSW of Banda Aceh, Off the West Coast of Northern Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 20 days ahead
Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Feb 22+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 27th Jan)	M5.1	94%	22nd February 2010 Lat -3.651 Lon 101.449 92 km W of Bengkulu,. Southern Sumatra (USGS source) forcast 26 days ahead
Taiwan Region Newly defined within 225 km of a center near East Coast of Taiwan at Lat 23.763 Lon 121.689	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)	M5.7	91%	26th February 2010 Lat 23.773 Lon 122.813 195 km SE of T'pai-pei, Taiwan (USGS source) forecast 30 days ahead
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Feb 24+/-3 days (posted 0345 hours 11th Feb)	M4.1	95%	19th February 2010 Lat 40.0 Lon 33.11 23 km E of Ankara, Turkey (EMSC source) forecast 8 days ahead
Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)	M5.4	98%	20th February 2010 Lat -13.625 Lon 166.677 215 km NNW of Luganville, Vanuatu (USGS source) forecast 24 days ahead

Table 26b. Regional forecasts for Full Moon Period

from January 30 - February 13* 2010

REGION	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska Anchorage Region newly defined within only 130 km of Anchorage, at Lat 61.225 and Lon -149.889	M2.2-M4.2 expected about Feb 11+/-3 days (posted 0335 hours 25th Jan)	M3.0	94%	12th February 2010 Lat 61.429 Lon -151.204 81 km WNW of Anchorage, Southern Alaska (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
California 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Feb 9+/-3 days (posted 0035 hours 20th Jan)	M3.5	81%	8th February 2010 Lat 36.723 Lon -121.364 83 km SE of San Jose City Hall, Central California (USGS source) forecast 19 days ahead
Nth California & Sth Oregon Coast & Off Coast within 400 km of Crescent City, California Lat 41.76 Lon -124.20	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Feb 9+/-3 days (posted 0335 hours 25th Jan)	M5.9	68%	4th February 2010 Lat 40.431 Lon -124.929 56 km WNW of Petrolia, CA (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead
California 'Southern' newly defined within only 160 km of Glen Avon, 10 km NW of Riverside, Southern CA at Lat 34.012 Lon -117.484	M2.7-M4.7 expected asbout Feb 11+/-3 days (posted 0124 hours 20th Jan)	M4.1	90%	13th February 2010 Lat 34.012 Lon -117.168 5 km S of Redlands and 100 km E of Los Angeles Civic Center (USGS source) forecast 24 days ahead
Caribbean Puerto Rico Area within ≈250 km of center 60 km NNE of San Juan at Lat 19.00 Lon -65.96	M2.6-M4.6 expected about Feb 7+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 20th Jan)	M3.5	97%	2nd February 2010 Lat 19.373 Lon -65.216 134 km NE of Carolina, PR (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Chile Northern Region within 400 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Feb 2+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 20th Jan)	M4.6	92%	3rd February 2010 Lat 21.54 Lon -69.44 115 km NW of Calama, Antofagasta, Chile (EMSC source) forecast 14 days ahead
China Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Feb 3+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 20th Jan)	M3.9	91%	11th February 2010 Lat 32.21 Lon 104.61 82 km NNW of Mianyang, Sichuan, China (JOPENS & Google Earth sources) forecast 22 days ahead
China Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Feb 3+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 20th Jan)	M4.0	80%	2nd February 2010 Lat 35.61 Lon 88.15 532 km NW of Nagqu, Xizang, China (JOPENS & Google Earth sources) forecast 13 days ahead
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Feb 11+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 20th Jan)	M4.9	86%	2nd February 2010 Lat 6.772 Lon -73.013 270 km NNE of Bogota, Northern Colombia (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.8-M6.8 expected about Feb 3+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 20th Jan)	M6.3	92%	13th February 2010 Lat -21.915 Lon -174.797 95 km SSE of Nuku'alofa, Tonga, (USGS source) forecast 24 days ahead
Greece within Lat 36-40°N and Lon 20-25°E	M4.4-M6.4 expected about Feb 12+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 20th Jan)	M4.1	76%	10th February 2010 Lat 36.03 Lon 22.25 248 km SW of Piraieús, Greece (EMSC source) forecast 21 days ahead
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Feb 5+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 20th Jan)	M4.8	96%	9th February 2010 Lat 16.080 Lon -92.344 30 km SW of Comitan, Chiapas, Mexico (USGS source) forecast 20 days ahead
Hawaii New zone within only 85 km of a center point at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on Island of Hawaii	M2.2-M4.2 expected about Feb 7+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 20th Jan)	M3.5	91%	2nd February 2010 Lat 19.209 Lon -155.485 1 km NW of Pahala, HI (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Hokkaido, Japan within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M4.7-M6.7 expected about Feb 11+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 20th Jan)	M4.8	98%	13th February 2010 Lat 43.860 Lon 142.050 105 km NNE of Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan (USGS source) forecast 24 days ahead
Honshu Japan Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Feb 8+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 20th Jan)	M4.7	98%	6th February 2010 Lat 32,75 Lon 140.59 293 km S 0f Yokosuka, Izu Islands Region (EMSC source) forecast 17 days ahead
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M2.3-M4.3 expected about Feb 11+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 20th Jan)	M3.5	94%	2nd February 2010 Lat 43.13 Lon 13.39 53 km S of Anacona, Central Italy (EMSC source) forecast 13 days ahead
Islamabad Region, Pakistan within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M5.0-M7.0 expected about Feb 2+/-3 days (posted 0335 hours 25th Jan)	M4.4	73%	5th February 2010 Lat 36.66 Lon 70.87 179 km E of Qunduz, Hindu Kush Region, Afghanistan (EMSC source) forecast 11 days ahead
Java - Sunda Strait Region (includes very southern Sumatra, Indonesia) within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Feb 9+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)	M4.8	96%	11th February 2010 Lat -8.99 Lon 108.50 370 km SSE of Jakarta, Java (USGS source- subject to revision) forecast 22 days ahead
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Feb 3+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)	M4.8	96%	13th February 2010 Lat 40.29 Lon 72.48 38 km SW of Os, Kyrgyzstan (EMSC source) forecast 24 days ahead
Mexico Southern Region within ≈500 km of Acapulco, Mexico Lat 16.876 Lon -99.89	M3.1-M5.1 expected about Feb 5+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)	M5.6	73%	9th February 2010 Lat 16.085 Lon -96.546 110 km S of Oaxaca, Oaxaca, Mexico (USGS source) forecast 20 days ahead
New Britain/ New Ireland/ Bougainville within ≈500 km of Sulu, New Britain at Lat -5.4 Lon 150.9	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Feb 8+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)	M5.7	84%	10th February 2010 Lat -7.161 Lon 154.709 140 km S of Arawa, Bougainville Region, PNG (USGS source) forecast 21 days ahead
New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Feb 3+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)	M5.0	90%	12th February 2010 Lat -40.91 Lon 174.94 40 km N of Wellington, North Island, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 23 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Feb 11+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)	M5.1	98%	5th February 2010 Lat -44.73 Lon 167.39 40 km W of Milford Souind, South Island, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 16 days ahead
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA within ≈500 km radius of Forks, W of Seattle, USA Lat 47.95 Lon-124.38	M2.6-M4.6 expected about Feb 11+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)	M3.3	92%	11th February 2010 Lat 50.72 Lon -130.45 214 km W of Pt Hardy, BC (Earthquakes Canada) forecast 22 days ahead
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Feb 4+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)	M4.8	96%	6th February 2010 Lat -16.69 Lon -73.30 185 km WSW of Arequipa, Near the Coast of Southern Peru (USGS source) forecast 17 days ahead
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Feb 8+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)	M4.7	96%	1st February 2010 Lat 13.83 Lon 120.71 34 km W of Batangas, Mindoro, Philippines (EMSC source) forecast 12 days ahead
Samoa-Tonga Newly defined within only 250 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Feb 12+/-3 days (posted 0035 hours 20th Jan)	M5.9	80%	9th February 2010 Lat -15.053 Lon -173.479 230 km SW of Apia, Samoa (USGS source) forecast 20 days ahead
Solomons Region Newly defined within ≈450 km of center at Lat -8.912 Lon 157.307, including Guadalcanal Is. in SE to tip of Bougainville (PNG) in NW sector.	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Feb 3+/-3days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)	M4.7	85%	7th February 2010 Lat -8.46 Lon 157.34 302 km W of Honiara, Solomon Islands (EMSC source) forecast 18 days ahead
Spain Region within ≈400 km of Reillo at Lat 39.905 and Lon -1.875	M2.2-M4.2 expected about Feb 5+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)	M3.1	97%	13th February 2010 Lat 38.37 Lon -3.22 84 km NE of Jaén, Spain (EMSC source) forecast 24 days ahead
Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Feb 5+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)	M5.0	98%	10th February 2010 Lat 1.527 Lon 97.157 280 km SW of Medan, Nias Region, Indonesia (USGS source) forecast 21 days ahead
Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Feb 4+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)	M5.3	92%	31st January 2010 Lat -2.920 Lon 100.863 180 km WNW of Bengkulu, Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Taiwan Region Newly defined within 225 km of a center near East Coast of Taiwan at Lat 23.763 Lon 121.689	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Feb 11+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)	M6.4	75%	7th February 2010 Lat 23.472 Lon 123.713 225 km ESE of Su-ao, Taiwan (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Feb 11+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)	M3.6	72%	7th February 2010 Lat 39.76 Lon 30.59 7 km SE of Eskisehir, Western Turkey (EMSC source) forecast 18 days ahead
Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Feb 3+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 20th Jan)	M5.1	100%	31st January 2010 Lat 18.751 Lon 169.394 160 km SE of Port-Vila, Vanuatu (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead

Table 26a. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period

from January 15-29* 2010

REGION	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska Anchorage Region within ≈500 km of a center point 100km South of Anchorage, at Lat 60.317 and Lon -149.79	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Jan 27+/-3 days (posted 1923 hours 8th Jan)	M4.9	92%	25th January 2010 Lat 58.612 Lon -153.490 354 km SW of Anchorage, Kodiak Island Region, Alaska (USGS source) forecast 17 days ahead
California 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M2.4-M4.4 expected about Jan 27+/-3 days (posted 0555 hours 4th Jan)	M3.4	100%	16th January 2010 Lat 36.038 Lon -117.844 223 N of Los Angeles Civic Center (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
Nth California & Sth Oregon Coast & Off Coast within 400 km of Crescent City, California Lat 41.76 Lon -124.20	M2.4-M4.4 expected about Jan 20+/-3 days (posted 0555 hours 4th Jan)	M4.3	79%	17th January 2010 Lat 43.515 Lon -126.647 280 km NW of Crescent City Off the Coast of Oregon (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
California 'Southern' newly defined within only 160 km of Glen Avon, 10 km NW of Riverside, Southern CA at Lat 34.012 Lon -117.484	M1.7-M3.7 expected about Jan 22+/-3 days (posted 0128 hours 7th Jan)	M4.3	63%	16th January 2010 Lat 33.938 Lon -117.017 114 km E of Los Angeles Civic Center (USGS source) forecast 9 days ahead
Caribbean Puerto Rico Area within ≈250 km of center 60 km NNE of San Juan at Lat 19.00 Lon -65.96	M2.9-M4.9 expected about Jan 22+/-3 days (posted 0943 hours 4th Jan)	M3.8	97%	16th January 2010 Lat 19.354 Lon -66.677 112 NNW of San Juan, PR (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
Chile Northern Region within 400 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Jan 24+/-3 days (posted 0555 hours 4th Jan)	M5.0	100%	18th January 2010 Lat -21.726 Lon -70.293 160 km WNW of Calama, Offshore Antofagasta, Chile (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead
China Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Jan 27+/-3 days (posted 0345 hours 14th Jan)	M5.1	82%	30th January 2010 Lat 30.236 Lon 105.612 35 km SSE of Suining, Eastern Sichuan (USGS source) forecast 16 days ahead
China Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89	M3.1-M5.1 expected about Jan 27+/-3 days (posted 0555 hours 4th Jan)	M3.8	93%	16th January 2010 Lat 35.66 Lon 88.31 578 km NW of Nagqu, Xizang (JOPENS & Google Earth sources) forecast 12 days ahead
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Jan 18+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M4.9	94%	29th January 2010 Lat 4.678 Lon -75.938 205 W of Bogota, Colombia (USGS source) forecast 22 days ahead
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Jan 24+/-3 days (posted 0500 hours 7th Jan)	M5.1	93%	26th January 2010 Lat -17.792 Lon -178.687 520 km NW of Nuku'alofa, Tonga (USGS source) forecast 19 days ahead
Greece within Lat 36-40°N and Lon 20-25°E	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Jan 26+/-3 days (posted 0500 hours 7th Jan)	M5.3	83%	22nd January 2010 Lat 38.42 Lon 22.04 34 km NE of Pátrai, Greece (EMSC source) forecast 15 days ahead
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Jan 27+/-3 days (posted 0500 hours 7th Jan)	M5.8	90%	18th January 2010 Lat 13.718 Lon -90.289 105 km SSE of Guatemala City, Offshore Guatemala (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Hawaii New zone within only 85 km of a center point at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on Island of Hawaii	M2.3-M4.3 expected about Jan 18+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M3.1	94%	18th January 2010 Lat 19.981 Lon -155.848 6 km NNE of Puako, HI (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Hokkaido, Japan within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Jan 27+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M4.9	98%	22nd January 2010 Lat 42.483 Lon 148.855 370 km E of Kushiro, Off the Coast of Kokkaido, Japan (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
Honshu Japan Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Jan 21+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M4.6	92%	20th January 2010 Lat 34.95 Lon 139.50 39 km SW of Yokosuka, Near East Coast of Honshu (EMSC source) forecast 13 days ahead
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Jan 24+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M3.1	89%	15th January 2010 Lat 42.92 Lon 13.15 56 km NE of Terni, Central Italy (EMSC source) forecast 8 days ahead
Islamabad Region, Pakistan within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Jan 18+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M5.0	100%	23rd January 2010 Lat 36.61 Lon 71.53 217 km NW of Mingaora, Hindu Kush Region, Afghanistan (EMSC source) forecast 16 days ahead
Java - Sunda Strait Region (includes very southern Sumatra, Indonesia) within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Jan 24+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M4.9	98%	28th January 2010 Lat -9.84 Lon 108.81 258 km S of Kebumen, Java (EMSC source) forecast 21 days ahead
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Jan 20+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M4.7	85%	19th January 2010 Lat 42.31 Lon 72.03 85 km SE of Taraz, Kyrgyzstan (EMSC source) forecast 12 days ahead
Mexico Southern Region within ≈500 km of Acapulco, Mexico Lat 16.876 Lon -99.89	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Jan 20+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M4.9	94%	20th January 2010 Lat 17.00 Lon -94.27 580 km ESE of Mexico City, in Oaxaca, Mexico (600 km from Acapulco, but the only earthquake reported) (USGS and Google Earth sources) forecast 13 days ahead
New Britain/ New Ireland/ Bougainville within ≈500 km of Sulu, New Britain at Lat -5.4 Lon 150.9	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Jan 27+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M6.2	84%	1st February 2010 Lat -6.102 Lon 154.424 125 km W of Arawa, Bougainville (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Jan 27 +/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M4.9	90%	19th January 2010 Lat -37.130 Lon 176.766 120 km NNE of Rotorua, North Island, NZ (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Jan 14+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M3.8	95%	16th January 2010 Lat -43.21 Lon 173.52 80 km NE of Christchurch, South Island (GNS Science/GeoNet source) forecast 9 days ahead
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA within ≈500 km radius of Forks, W of Seattle, USA Lat 47.95 Lon-124.38	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Jan 27+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M3.7	82%	24th January 2010 Lat 48.92 Lon -129.12 232 km SW of Pt Hardy, BC (Earthquakes Canada) forecast 17 days ahead
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Jan 21+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 7th Jan)	M5.8	84%	25th January 2010 Lat -8.546 Lon -74.467 20 km SSE of Pucalipa, Central Peru (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Jan 19+/-3 days (posted 1043 hours 7th Jan)	M6.1	82%	27th January 2010 Lat 13.684 Lon 125.440 495 km ESE of Manila, Philippine Islands Region (USGS source) forecast 20 days ahead
Samoa-Tonga New region within 500 km of Apia,Samoa at Lat -13.83 Lon -171.748	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Jan 21+/-3 days (posted 1043 hours 7th Jan)	M5.7	90%	25th January 2010 Lat -18.624 Lon -173.676 35 km E of Neiafu, Tonga (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Solomons Region Newly defined within ≈450 km of center at Lat -8.912 Lon 157.307, including Guadalcanal Is. in SE to tip of Bougainville (PNG) in NW sector.	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Jan 22+/-3 days (posted 1043 hours 7th Jan)	M5.6	91%	24th January 2010 Lat -9.171 Lon 157.714 250 km W of Honiara, Solomon Islands (USGS source) forecast 17 days ahead
Spain Region within ≈400 km of Reillo at Lat 39.905 and Lon -1.875	M2.2-M4.2 expected about Jan 27+/-3 days (posted 0540 hours 8th Jan)	M3.0	94%	21st January 2010 Lat 42.0 Lon -7.97 38 km S of Ourense, Spain (EMSC source) forecast 13 days ahead
Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Jan 16+/-3 days (posted 0540 hours 8th Jan)	M5.0	90%	22 January 2010 Lat 3.045 Lon 93.756 545 km W of Medan, Off the West Coast of Northern Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead
Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Jan 23 +/-3 days (revised 0030 hours 20th Jan)	M5.3	98%	25th January 2010 Lat -4.309 Lon 102.655 75 km SE of Bengkulu, Southern Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 5 days ahead
Taiwan Region Newly defined within 225 km of a center near East Coast of Taiwan at Lat 23.763 Lon 121.689	M4.9-M6.9 expected about Jan 19+/-3 days (posted 0540 hours 8th Jan)	M5.0	85%	19th January 2010 Lat 23.84 Lon 121.70 20 km SE of Hualian, Taiwan (EMSC source) forecast 11 days ahead
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	M2.7-M4.7 expected about Jan 18+/-3 days (posted 0540 hours 8th Jan)	M4.0	92%	25th January 2010 Lat 38.84 Lon 26.95 47 km NW of Manisa, Near Coast of Western Turkey (EMSC source) forecast 17 days ahead
Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Jan 24+/-3 days (posted 0540 hours 8th Jan)	M5.9	93%	29th January 2010 Lat -18.956 Lon 169.627 195 km SE of Port-Vila, Vanuatu (USGS source) forecast 21 days ahead

SAMOA-TONGA REGION has been added to this table

Table 25a. Regional forecasts for Full Moon Period

from January 1-14* 2010

REGION	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska Anchorage Region within ≈500 km of a center point 100km South of Anchorage, at Lat 60.317 and Lon -149.79	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Jan 3+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 22nd Dec)	M3.9	81%	6th January 2010 Lat 57.56 Lon -152.30 340 km SSW of Anchorage (USGS/NEIC & Google Earth sources) forecast 15 days ahead
California 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Jan 5+/-3 days (revised 2345 hours 2nd Jan)	M4.1	89%	7th January 2010 Lat 37.481 Lon -121.799 18 km NNE of San Jose City Hall, San Francisco Bay Area (USGS source) forecast 5 days ahead
Nth California & Sth Oregon Coast & Off Coast within 400 km of Crescent City, California Lat 41.76 Lon -124.20	M2.0-M4.0 expected about Jan 13+/-3 days (posted 2245 hours 22nd Dec)	M6.5	46%	10th January 2010 Lat 40.645 Lon -124.763 43 km W of Ferndale, Offshore Northern CA (USGS source) forecast 19 days ahead NOTE: The latest modellling had not yet been applied to this region, but will apply from Table 26b onwards after a major review has been carried out.
California 'Southern' within 350 km of Escondido, NNE of San Diego, Southern CA at Lat 33.116 Lon -117.083	M2.9-M4.9 expected about Jan 4+/-3 days (posted 2245 hours 22nd Dec)	M4.3	91%	12th January 2010 Lat 33.966 Lon -116.876 127 km E of Los Angeles Civic Center (USGS source forecast 21 days ahead
Caribbean Puerto Rico Area within ≈250 km of a center 60 km NNE of San Juan at Lat 19.00 Lon -65.96	M3.1-M5.1 expected about Jan 6+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 22nd Dec)	M3.7	90%	8th January 2010 Lat 19.567 Lon -66.303 122 km N of San Juan, Puerto Rico (USGS source) forecast 17 days ahead
Chile Northern Region within 400 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Jan 4+/-3 days (posted 2245 hours 22nd Dec)	M4.8	92%	3rd January 2010 Lat -22.523 Lon -68.407 240 km ENE of Antofagasta Chile (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
China Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Jan 11+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 22nd Dec)	M3.9	91%	4th January 2010 Lat 32.13 Lon 105.31 90 km NE of Mianyang, Sichuan, China (JOPENS & Google Earth sources) forecast 13 days ahead
China Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Jan 5+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 28th Dec)	M4.7	96%	1st January 2010 Lat 30.685 Lon 83.743 365 km NNW of Kathmandu, Nepal, but in Western Xizang, China (USGS source) forecast 4 days ahead
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	No forecast	(M4.7)	N/A	11th January 2010 Lat 4.24 Lon -75.72 32 km S of Armenia, Colombia (EMSC source) no forecast was made
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Jan 4+/-3 days (posted 2320 hours 24th Dec)	M5.2	92%	4th January 2010 Lat -21.006 Lon -178.951 420 km SE of Suva, Fiji (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Greece within Lat 36-40°N and Lon 20-25°E	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Jan 4+/-3 days (posted 0815 hours 26th Dec)	M4.3	86%	14th January 2010 Lat 39.23 Lon 22.21 49 km S of Lárisa, Greece (EMSC source) forecast 19 days ahead
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Jan 8+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 28th Dec)	M5.0	94%	6th January 2010 Lat 14.250 Lon -91.879 155 WSW of Guatemala City, Offshore Guatemala, (USGS source) forecast 9 days ahead
Hawaii New zone within only 85 km of a center point at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on Island of Hawaii	M1.0-M3.0 expected about Jan 14+/-3 days (posted 1958 hours 29th Dec)	M1.9	95%	8th January 2010 Lat 19.370 Lon -155.440 15 km SSE of Volcano, HI (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead
Hokkaido, Japan within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Jan 11+/-3 days (posted 0115 hours 30th Dec)	M5.0	98%	14th January 2010 Lat 42.38 Lon 142.959 135 km WSW of Kushiro, Hokkaido, Japan (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
Honshu Japan Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Jan 3+/-3 days (posted 0815 hours 26th Dec)	M4.7	100%	7th January 2010 Lat 36.23 Lon 141.97 124 km E of Hitachi, Near East Coast of Honshu, Japan (EMSC source) forecast 12 days ahead
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M2.3-M4.3 expected about Jan 9+/-3 days (posted 1045 hours 30th Dec)	M4.1	80%	12th January 2010 Lat 43.19 Lon 13.46 46 km S of Ancona, Central Italy (EMSC source) forecast 13 days ahead
Islamabad Region, Pakistan within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Jan 4+/-3 days (posted 0815 hours 26th Dec)	M4.5	96%	6th January 2010 Lat 37.56 Lon 71.11 220 km NE of Qunduz, Hindu Kush Region, Afghanistan (EMSC source) forecast 11 days ahead
Java - Sunda Strait Region (includes very southern Sumatra, Indonesia) within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Jan 5+/-3 days (posted 0115 hours 30th Dec)	M5.0	96%	10th January 2010 Lat -7.830 Lon 107.926 225 km SE of Jakarta, Java (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Jan 5+/-3 days (posted 0115 hours 30th Dec)	M5.3	89%	2nd January 2010 Lat 38.247 Lon 71.495 235 km E of Dushanbe, Tajikistan (USGS source) forecast 3 days ahead
Mexico Southern Region within ≈500 km of Acapulco, Mexico Lat 16.876 Lon -99.89	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Jan 8+/-3 days (posted 0115 hours 30th Dec)	M4.6	98%	6th January 2010 Lat 17.409 Lon -100.551 90 km NW of Acapulco, Guerrero, Mexico (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
New Britain/ New Ireland/ Bougainville within ≈500 km Sulu, New Britain, Lat -5.4 Lon 150.9	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Jan 5+/-3 days (posted 1045 hours 30th Dec)	M5.3	100%	6th January 2010 Lat -4.401 Lon 151.717 55 km WSW of Rabaul, New Britain (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Jan 10+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 28th Dec)	M4.3	96%	3rd January 2010 Lat -38.83 Lon 178.36 30 km SE of Gisborne, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 6 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Jan 10+/-3 days (posted 0115 hours 30th Dec)	M4.6	96%	14th January 2010 Lat -44.12 Lon 168.37 220 km N of Gore, South Island, New Zealand (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 15 days ahead
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA within ≈500 km radius of Forks, W of Seattle, USA Lat 47.95 Lon-124.38	M2.4-M4.4 expected about Jan 10+/-3 days (posted 1045 hours 30th Dec)	M4.1	83%	12th January 2010 Lat 48.68 Lon -128.89 224 km W of Tofino, BC ((Earthquakes Canada) forecast 13 days ahead
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Jan 4+/-3 days (posted 0815 hours 26th Dec)	M5.0	90%	5th January 2010 Lat -16.429 Lon -73.999 330 km SE of Ica, Peru (USGS source) forecast 8 days ahead
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Jan 7+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 28th Dec)	M5.0	96%	12th January 2010 Lat 14.668 Lon 120.506 50 km W of Manila, Luzon, Philippines (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
Samoa-Tonga New region within 500 km of Apia,Samoa at Lat -13.83 Lon -171.748	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Jan 13+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 28th Dec)	M5.5	96%	10th January 2010 Lat -16.735 Lon -174.210 500 km NE of Nuku'alofa, Tonga (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Solomons Region includes region west of Santa Cruz Islands, within ≈500 km of center at Ngalikomba on North Coast of Guadalcanal Island, Solomon Islands at Lat -9.43 Lon 160.31	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Jan 2+/-3 days (posted 0115 hours 30th Dec)	M7.2	69%	3rd January 2010 Lat -8.912 Lon 157.307 295 km WNW of Honiara, Solomon Islands (USGS source) forecast 4 days ahead. NOTE: The latest modellling had not yet been applied to the Solomons, but will apply from Table 26a onwards, and the region has been newly defined for the purpose of these forecasts.
Spain Region within ≈400 km of Reillo at Lat 39.905 and Lon -1.875	M2.1-M4.1 expected about Jan 9+/-3 days (posted 1045 hours 30th Dec)	M3.5	88%	4th January 2010 Lat 37.07 Lon -4.37 39 km N of Málaga, Spain (EMSC source) forecast 5 days ahead
Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Jan 5+/-3 days (posted 0815 hours 26th Dec)	M4.8	96%	4th January 2010 Lat 0.27 Lon 96.82 417 km SW of Medan, Nias Region (EMSC & Google Earth sources) forecast 9 days ahead
Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Jan 4+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 28th Dec)	M4.8	87%	1st January 2010 Lat -2.22 Lon 100.50 142 km S of Padang, Kep. Mentawai Region, Indonesia (EMSC source) forecast 4 days ahead
Taiwan Region Newly defined within 225 km of a center near East Coast of Taiwan at Lat 23.763 Lon 121.689	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Jan 7+/-3 days (posted 0205 hours 25th Dec)	M5.1	88%	12th January 2010 Lat 25.012 Lon 123.324 180 km E of T'ai-pei, Taiwan (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Jan 6+/-3 days (posted 0115 hours 30th Dec)	M3.5	88%	10th January 2010 Lat 37.94 Lon 29.31 27 km NE of Denizli, Western Turkey (EMSC source) forecast 11 days ahead
Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Jan 6+/-3 days (posted 0115 hours 30th Dec)	M5.5	96%	3rd January 2010 Lat -12.898 Lon 166.097 310 km NNW of Luganville, Vanuatu, in Santa Cruz Isl. (USGS source) forecast 4 days ahead

SAMOA-TONGA REGION has been added to this table

Table 25a. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period

from December 16-31* 2009

REGION	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska Anchorage Region within ≈500 km of a center point 100km South of Anchorage, at Lat 60.317 and Lon -149.79	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 24+/-3 days (posted 0620 hours 12th Dec)	M5.4	93%	18th December 2009 Lat 59.04 Lon -153.40 310 km SW of Anchorage, Southern Alaska (USGS source - Preliminary Report) forecast 6 days ahead
California 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Dec 25+/-3 days (posted 0620 hours 12th Dec)	M4.0	95%	22nd December 2009 Lat 39.777 Lon -123.338 211 km NW of Sacramento, Northern California (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead
Northern California & Sth Oregon Coast & Off Coast within 400 km of Crescent City, California Lat 41.76 Lon -124.20	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Dec 24+/-3 days (posted 0010 hours 14th Dec)	M4.0	100%	22nd December 2009 Lat 39.777 Lon -123.338 211 km NW of Sacramento, Northern California (USGS source) forecast 8 days ahead
California 'Southern' within 350 km of Escondido, NNE of San Diego, Southern CA at Lat 33.116 Lon -117.083	M2.6-M4.6 expected about Dec 21+/-3 days (posted 0620 hours 12th Dec)	M5.8	62%	30th December 2009 Lat 32.467 Lon -115.195 37 km SE of Calexico, CA, in Baja California, Mexico (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Caribbean Puerto Rico Area within ≈250 km of a center 60 km NNE of San Juan at Lat 19.00 Lon -65.96	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Dec 27+/-3 days (posted 0010 hours 14th Dec)	M3.4	76%	24th December 2009 Lat 18.645 Lon -65.384 80 km ENE of San Juan, PR (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead
Chile Northern Region within 400 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Dec 21+/-3 days (posted 0620 hours 12th Dec)	M5.2	88%	28th December 2009 Lat -22.288 Lon -69.996 155 km NNE of Antofagasta, Chile (USGS source) forecast 16 days ahead
China Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Dec 28+/-3 days (revised 2318 hours 26th Dec)	awaiting regional output of data
China Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 27+/-3 days (posted 0010 hours 14th Dec)	M4.2	84%	28th December 2009 Lat 30.48 Lon 83.65 253 km NW of Pokhara, Western Xizang, China (EMSC source) forecast 14 days ahead
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Dec 23+/-3 days (posted 0010 hours 14th Dec)	M5.2	81%	18th December 2009 Lat 3.06 Lon -76.27 50 km SE of Cali, Colombia (EMSC source) forecast 4 days ahead
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 27+/-3 days (posted 0010 hours 14th Dec)	M5.2	96%	19th December 2009 Lat -21.648 Lon -174.524 90 km S of Nuku'alofa, Tonga (USGS source) forecast 5 days ahead
Greece within Lat 36-40°N and Lon 20-25°E	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Dec 26+/-3 days (posted 0620 hours 12th Dec)	M4.5	89%	22nd December 2009 Lat 39.18 Lon 20.43 153 km NW of Pátrai, Greece (EMSC source) forecast 10 days ahead
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 19+/-3 days (posted 0010 hours 14th Dec)	M4.7	94%	29th December 2009 Lat 11.037 Lon -86.292 115 km S of Managua, Near Coast of Nicaragua (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
Hawaii New zone within only 85 km of a center point at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on Island of Hawaii	M1.6-M3.6 expected about Dec 20+/-3 days (posted 0500 hours 15th Dec)	M2.7	96%	19th December 2009 Lat 19.90 Lon -156.05 100 km W of Hilo, Island of Hawaii (USGS source) forecast 4 days ahead
Hokkaido, Japan within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Dec 24+/-3 days (posted 0010 hours 14th Dec)	M5.2	92%	28th December 2009 Lat 43.259 Lon 144.519 35 NNE of Kushiro, Hokkaido, Japan (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead
Honshu Japan Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 21+/-3 days (posted 0620 hours 12th Dec)	M5.3	94%	17th December 2009 Lat 36.392 Lon 139.487 85 km NNW of Tokyo, Eastern Honshu, Japan (USGS source) forecast 5 days ahead
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M2.7-M4.7 expected about Dec 23+/-3 days (posted 0620 hours 15th Dec)	M3.5	94%	21st December 2009 Lat 46.10 Lon 13.37 59 km NW of Trieste, Northern Italy (EMSC source) forecast 6 days ahead
Islamabad Region, Pakistan within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Dec 20+/-3 days (posted 0310 hours 14th Dec)	M4.5	96%	18th December 2009 Lat 36.42 Lon 71.69 65 km NNW of Chitral, Pakistan (USGS source - Preliminary Report) forecast 4 days ahead
Java - Sunda Strait Region (includes very southern Sumatra, Indonesia) within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Dec 18+/-3 days (posted 0620 hours 12th Dec)	M4.7	98%	27th December 2009 Lat -8.00 Lon 106.22 138 km SW of Cibadak, South of Java (EMSC source) forecast 15 days ahead
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 23+/-3 days (posted 0310 hours 14th Dec)	M5.2	96%	22nd December 2009 Lat 41.84 Lon 73.22 140 km NE of Andijon, Kyrgyzstan (EMSC source) forecast 8 days ahead
Mexico Southern Region within ≈500 km of Acapulco, Mexico Lat 16.876 Lon -99.89	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Dec 26+/-3 days (posted 0620 hours 12th Dec)	M4.2	79%	21st December 2009 Lat 17.04 Lon -99.73 30 km NE of Acapulco, Guerrero, Mexico (USGS source) forecast 9 days ahead
New Britain/ New Ireland/ Bougainville within ≈500 km Sulu, New Britain, Lat -5.4 Lon 150.9	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 24+/-3 days (posted 0310 hours 14th Dec)	M5.4	92%	29th December 2009 Lat -5.168 Lon 152.178 120 km SW of Taron, New Ireland (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Dec 21+/-3 days (revised 2120 hours 18th Dec)	M4.7	96%	21st December 2009 Lat -37.64 Lon 177.34 240 km E of Auckland, in Bay of Plenty, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 3 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 23+/-3 days (posted 0310 hours 14th Dec)	M4.6	92%	15th December 2009 at 2250 hours Lat -44.42 Lon 168.19 200 km N of Gore, Fiorland, South Island, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 1 day ahead
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA within ≈500 km radius of Forks, W of Seattle, USA Lat 47.95 Lon-124.38	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Dec 28+/-3 days (posted 0310 hours 14th Dec)	M4.1	85%	23rd December 2009 Lat 50.55 Lon -130.37 208 km W of Pt Hardy, BC (Earthquakes Canada) forecast 9 days ahead
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Dec 28+/-3 days (posted 1100 hours 12th Dec)	M5.5	100%	24th December 2009 Lat -15.76 Lon -73.98 267 km SE of Ica, Southern Peru (EMSC source) forecast 12 days ahead
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	M5.0-M7.0 expected about Dec 22+/-3 days (posted 0020 hours 13th Dec)	M5.4	90%	21st December 2009 Lat 17.303 Lon 121.487 300 km N of Manila, Luzon (USGS source) forecast 8 days ahead
Samoa-Tonga New region within 500 km of Apia,Samoa at Lat -13.83 Lon -171.748	M5.0-M7.0 expected about Dec 29+/-3 days (posted 0800 hours 15th Dec)	M5.6	93%	25th December 2009 Lat -15.936 Lon -173.040 275 km SW of Apia, Samoa & 75 km E of Hihifo, Tonga (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead
Solomons Region includes region west of Santa Cruz Islands, within ≈500 km of center at Ngalikomba on North Coast of Guadalcanal Island, Solomon Islands at Lat -9.43 Lon 160.31	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Dec 24+/-3 days (posted 0310 hours 14th Dec)	M4.6	100%	23rd December 2009 Lat -11.44 Lon 165.53 610 km ESE of centre at Ngalikomba (the only quake, but outside zone by 60 km) forecast 9 days ahead
Spain Region within ≈400 km of Reillo at Lat 39.905 and Lon -1.875	M2.1-M4.1 expected about Dec 27+/-3 days (posted 0310 hours 14th Dec)	M2.8	90%	28th December 2009 Lat 43.17 Lon -0.82 78 km NE of Pamplona, Spain (EMSC source) forecast 14 days ahead
Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 28+/-3 days (posted 2305 hours 12th Dec)	M5.1	98%	19th December 2009 Lat 2.709 Lon 96.053 305 km WSW of Medan, Simeulue, Indonesia (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M6.0-M8.0 expected about Dec 25+/-3 days (posted 2305 hours 12th Dec)	M6.0	86%	23rd December 2009 Lat -1.420 Lon 99.439 115 km WSW of Padang, Kep. Mentawai Region, Indonesia (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Taiwan Region within ≈500 km of a center about 300 km E of Taiwan at Lat 23.92 Lon 124.58	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 27+/-3 days (posted 2204 hours 13th Dec)	M6.4	78%	19th December 2009 Lat 23.763 Lon 121.689 145 S of T'ai-pei, Taiwan (USGS source) forecast 6 days ahead
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Dec 29+/-3 days (posted 0620 hours 15th Dec)	M5.3	75%	22nd December 2009 Lat 35.72 Lon 31.51 375 km SSE of Usak, Western Turkey (USGS/NEIC & Google Earth sources) forecast 7 days ahead
Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Dec 27+/-3 days (posted 0310 hours 14th Dec)	M5.0	94%	29th December 2009 Lat -12.530 Lon 166.480 340 km NNW of Luganville, Vanuatu, in Santa Cruz Islands Region (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead

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