Seismograph. © Matt Matthews, iStockphotos Inc. All rights reserved.
Long-term Forecasts (3-4 Weeks)
Largest Regional Earthquakes
Success Rate (Tables 1-8): 90% accuracy (188 predictions)
(where accuracy, as given in the tables, is equal to at least 80%) NOTE: We have experienced some
difficulties with our program and hope to restore Tables 1-5 in near future.
Please scroll down to Table 8 for other recent events.
Table 9. Regional Forecasts for 31st August-28th Sept. 2008. The largest earthquakes for this period are likely to fall within the magnitude ranges listed below (probability >90% when magnitude accuracy is compared to the mid range for each case).
These forecasts were made at 2400 hrs on 30th Aug 2008 (UTC). Interim events given in the table are subject to review if a larger event occurs by the end of the forecast period on 28th Sept 2008.
REGION |
Expected
Magnitude
Range |
Observed
Maximum
Magnitude
|
Accuracy compared to mid range (%) |
Date &
Location |
Bougainville P.N.G.
within ≈150
km from Sohano centered at
Lat -5.43 Lon 154.7 |
M4.0-M5.0
|
|
|
|
California- "Northern"
within 250 km
of
San Jose City Hall
Lat 37.3 Lon -121.9 |
M2.7-M3.7 |
M4.0 |
80% |
6th September 2008
Lat 37.9 Lon -122.0
3 km ENE of Alamo
San Francisco Bay Area,
California
|
CA-Oregon
Off Coast
within 350 km
of a centerpoint at
Lat 42.3°
Lon -127°
|
M5.0-M6.0
|
|
|
|
California- "Southern"
within 250 km
of
LA
Civic Center at
Lat 34.0 Lon -118.25 |
M3.0-M4.0
|
M3.3 |
94% |
4th September 2008
Lat 34.0 Lon -117.1
104 km E from
Los Angeles Civic C.
Southern California |
Caribbean
within ≈400 km of
Mayagüez, PR
at
Lat 18.2 Lon -67° |
M4.3-M5.3
|
|
|
|
Chile within ≈300 km of Antofagasta
Lat -23.6 Lon -70.4 |
M4.8-M5.8
|
|
|
|
China Sichuan Region
within 500 km
of a centerpoint at
Lat 31°
Lon 103.4° |
M3.0-M5.0 |
M4.3 |
93% |
5th September 2008
Lat 32.7 Lon 105.5
45 km NW from
Guangyuan, Sichuan
|
Colombia within ≈350 km
of Medellin,
Sth Amer.
Lat 6.24 Lon -75.68 |
M4.0-M5.0
|
M4.8 |
94% |
2nd September 2008
Lat 2.9 Lon -75.9
270 km SW of Bogota
Colombia
|
Fiji Region
within ≈500 km of Suva centered at
Lat -18.14 Lon 178.4 |
M4.4-M5.4
|
|
|
|
Greece
within Lat 36-40°N
and Lon 20-25°E |
M4.5-M5.5
|
|
|
|
Guatemala
within ≈275
km of Guatemala City at
Lat 14.6 Lon -90.5
|
M4.7-M5.7
|
M4.7 |
90% |
4th September 2008
Lat 13.8 Lon -91.0
103 SSW from
Guatemala City |
Hawaii
within ≈250 km
of
a centerpoint at
Lat 19.9
Lon-155.9 on Island of Hawai |
M3.5-M4.5 |
|
|
|
Hokkaido,
Japan
within ≈400 km from
Yubetsu, Hokkaido
Lat 44.2
Lon 155.9 |
M4.5-M5.5
|
M4.7 |
94% |
1st September 2008
Lat 42.6 Lon 141.7
60 km SSE Sapporo
Hokkaido, Japan
|
Honshu,
Japan
within ≈500 km from
Tokyo at Lat 35.7°
and Lon 139.8°
|
M4.7-M5.7
|
M5.3 |
98% |
5th September 2008
Lat 32.6 Lon 137.1
420 km SW of Tokyo
Izu Islands,
Japan Region
|
Java
within ≈500 km from Semarang, Java
Lat -6.97 Lon 110.4
|
M4.5-M5.5
|
|
|
|
Mexico- 'Colima'
within ≈450
km of Guadalajara, Mexico
Lat 20.7 Lon -103.4 |
M3.7-M4.7 |
|
|
|
Mexico- 'Oaxaca'
within ≈350
km of Oaxaca, OAXACA
Lat 17.0 Lon -96.7 |
M4.0-M5.0
|
|
|
|
New Britain/ New Ireland P.N.G.
within ≈300 km Sulu
Lat -5.4 Lon 150.9 |
M5.0-M6.5
|
|
|
|
North Is.
New Zealand
within ≈400
km from Rotorua, North Is.
Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2 |
M4.0-M5.0
|
M5.2 |
86% |
1st September 2008
Lat -39.2
Lon 175.7
115 WNW of Napier
North Island, NZ
(USGS Source)
|
South Is.
New Zealand
(top half) North
of Ashburton which
is at
Latitude -43.9°
|
M2.8-M4.5
|
M5.0 |
73% |
5th September 2008
Lat -42.4 Lon 172.7
130 km N from
Christchurch, NZ
|
South Is.
New Zealand
(bottom half)
between Ashburton
and Lat -47.0° 150 km S of Invercargill
|
M4.5-M6.5
|
|
|
|
Peru
within ≈500 km of Lima, Peru, at
Lat -12.1 Lon -77.0 |
M5.0-M7.0 |
|
|
|
Philippines within ≈300 km from Manila, centered at
Lat 14.6 Lon 121.0 |
M4.5-M5.5
|
|
|
|
'Solomons
Region'
within ≈500
km of Honiara, centered at
Lat -9.25 Lon 159.6
|
M5.0-M6.5
|
M5.2 |
90% |
3rd September 2008
Lat -10.4 Lon
161.3
185 SE of Honiara
Guadalcanal
Solomon Islands
|
Sumatra- Northern
within ≈500
km of Medan, Nth Sumatra
Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67 |
M4.5-M5.5
|
M5.1 |
98% |
2nd September 2008
Lat 0.60 Lon 98.0
310 WNW of Padang
in Nias Region,
Northern Sumatra
|
Sumatra- Southern
within ≈500
km of Lubuktandjung
Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14 |
M4.9-M5.9
|
M5.2 |
96% |
2nd September 2008
Lat -4.4 Lon 101.5
105 km SW Bengkulu
Southern Sumatra
(EMSC Source)
|
Taiwan
within 350
km of
T'ai-pei, Taiwan
at Lat 25.0 Lon 121.5
|
M5.3-M6.3
|
|
|
|
Turkey-
Western
within ≈350
km of Usak, Turkey
Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4
|
M4.0-M5.0
|
|
|
|
Vanuatu
within ≈500
km
Port-Vila centered at
Lat -17.4 Lon 168.2
|
M5.0-M6.0
|
M6.5 |
85% |
8th September 2008
Lat -20.0 Lon 169.0
260 SSE of Port-Vila
Vanuatu
|
Table 8. Regional Forecasts for 6-30 August 2008.
The largest earthquakes for this period are likely to fall within the magnitude ranges listed below (probability >90% when magnitude accuracy is compared to the mid range for each case). These forecasts were made at 0350 hrs on 6th August 2008 (UTC).
Interim events given in the table are subject to review if a larger
event occurs by the end of the forecast period on 30 August 2008.
REGION |
Expected
Magnitude
Range |
Observed
Maximum
Magnitude
|
Accuracy compared to mid range (%) |
Date &
Location |
Bougainville P.N.G.
within ≈150
km from Sohano centered at
Lat -5.43 Lon 154.7 |
M4.0-M5.0
|
M4.3 |
96% |
14th August 2008
Lat -5.6 Lon 154.2
165 km WNW Arawa
Bougainville Region
P.N.G.
|
California- "Northern"
within 250 km
of
San Jose City Hall
Lat 37.3 Lon -121.9 |
M2.8-M3.8 |
M3.7 |
89% |
28th August 2008
Lat 35.8 Lon -121.3
176 km SSE San Jose
Northern California
|
CA-Oregon
Off Coast
within 350 km
of a centerpoint at
Lat 42.3°
Lon -127°
|
M4.0-M6.0
about 13th Aug |
M4.6 |
92% |
17th August 2008
Lat 41.2 Lon -124.2
44 km N of Eureka
Offshore Nth CA |
California- "Southern"
within 250 km
of
LA
Civic Center at
Lat 34.0 Lon -118.25 |
M3.8-M5.0
about 29th Aug |
M3.4 |
77% |
25th August 2008
Lat 33.8 Lon -119.4
106 km W from
Los Angeles Civic C.
Channel Islands Reg.
|
Caribbean
within ≈400 km of
Mayagüez, PR
at
Lat 18.2 Lon -67° |
M3.0-M4.5
|
M4.6 |
82% |
13th August 2008
Lat 19.6 Lon -69.9
118 km N from
Santo Domingo
Dominican Republic |
Chile within ≈300 km of Antofagasta
Lat -23.6 Lon -70.4 |
M4.5-M5.5
aound 15th Aug |
M5.4 |
92% |
21st August 2008
Lat -25.3 Lon -68.7
250 km SE from
Antofagasta, Chile |
China Sichuan Region
within 500 km
of a centerpoint at
Lat 31°
Lon 103.4° |
M6.0-M8.0 about 20th Aug
+/- three days
See Table 6 on China page for
all updates |
M5.9 |
84% |
30th August 2008
Lat 26.3 Lon 101.9
35 SSE of Panzhihua
(only 50 km outside
prediction zone)
Sichuan-Yunnan
Border Region
|
Colombia within ≈350 km
of Medellin,
Sth Amer.
Lat 6.24 Lon -75.68 |
M3.5-M4.5
|
M4.6 |
87% |
10th August 2008
Lat 6.7 Lon -72.9
270 km NNE from
Bogota, Colombia
|
Fiji Region
within ≈500 km of Suva centered at
Lat -18.14 Lon 178.4 |
M5.0-M6.0
about 30th Aug |
M5.2 |
94% |
18th August 2008
Lat -19.5 Lon 178.0
220 km SE of Suva,
Fiji Region
|
Greece
within Lat 36-40°N
and Lon 20-25°E |
M4.0-M5.0
about 18th Aug |
M4.5 |
100% |
26th August 2008
Lat 36.1° Lon 21.8°
234 S of Pátrai
Southern Greece
|
Guatemala
within ≈275
km of Guatemala City at
Lat 14.6 Lon -90.5
|
M4.9-M5.9
about 6th Aug |
M4.7 |
87% |
16th August 2008
Lat 14.0 Lon -91.5
130 km WSW from
Guatemala City |
Hawaii
within ≈250 km
of
a centerpoint at
Lat 19.9
Lon-155.9 on Island of Hawai |
M2.8-M4.2 |
M3.3 |
94% |
28th August 2008
Lat 19.3 Lon -155.1
21 km SSE Volcano
Island of Hawaii |
Hokkaido,
Japan
within ≈400 km from
Yubetsu, Hokkaido
Lat 44.2
Lon 155.9 |
M4.5-M5.5
|
M5.4 |
93% |
8th August 2008
Lat 41.2 Lon 142.1
135 ESE of Hakodate
Hokkaido, Japan
|
Honshu,
Japan
within ≈500 km from
Tokyo at Lat 35.7°
and Lon 139.8°
|
M5.5-M6.5
about 23rd Aug
|
M5.1 |
85% |
22nd August 2008
Lat 36.5 Lon 140.4
105 km NNE from
Tokyo, Japan
|
Java
within ≈500 km from Semarang, Java
Lat -6.97 Lon 110.4
|
M5.0-M6.5
about 20th Aug |
M4.8 |
83% |
8th August 2008
Lat -8.1 Lon 107.6
130 km S from
Bandung, Java
|
Mexico- 'Colima'
within ≈450
km of Guadalajara, Mexico
Lat 20.7 Lon -103.4 |
M3.9-M4.9 |
awaiting regional
printout of data
|
|
|
Mexico- 'Oaxaca'
within ≈350
km of Oaxaca, OAXACA
Lat 17.0 Lon -96.7 |
M4.0-M5.5
|
M4.2 |
88% |
23rd August 2008
Lat 15.1 Lon -93.2
125 SSE Tonala,
Offshore Chiapas,
Mexico
|
New Britain/ New Ireland P.N.G.
within ≈300 km Sulu
Lat -5.4 Lon 150.9 |
M4.5-M5.5
about 20th Aug
|
M5.0 |
100% |
12th August 2008
Lat -4.59 Lon 153.5
55 km ESE of Taron
New Ireland
|
North Is.
New Zealand
within ≈400
km from Rotorua, North Is.
Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2 |
M4.0-M5.0
|
M5.6 |
80% |
25th August 2008
Lat -39.4 Lon 176.4
50 km WSW of Napier
North Island, NZ
(Geoscience Aust.)
|
South Is.
New Zealand
(top half) North
of Ashburton which
is at
Latitude -43.9°
|
M4.5-M6.0
about 26th Aug |
M3.2 |
61% |
22 August 2008
Lat -41.7 Lon 174.1
20 km SE Blenheim
Marlborough
South Island NZ
|
South Is.
New Zealand
(bottom half)
between Ashburton
and Lat -47.0° 150 km S of Invercargill
|
M4.0-M6.0
about 24th Aug |
M4.7 |
94% |
30th August 2008
Lat -44.3 Lon 167.8
50 km N from
Milford Sound,
Fiordland, NZ |
Peru
within ≈500 km of Lima, Peru, at
Lat -12.1 Lon -77.0 |
M4.0-M5.0 |
M5.2 |
86% |
22nd August 2008
Lat -8.4 Lon -74.2
515 km NE of Lima
Central Peru
|
Philippines within ≈300 km from Manila, centered at
Lat 14.6 Lon 121.0 |
M5.5-M7.0
about 8th Aug |
M5.9 |
94% |
15th August 2008
Lat 12.9 Lon 124.3
405 km ESE of Manila
105 km out of zone |
'Solomons
Region'
within ≈500
km of Honiara, centered at
Lat -9.25 Lon 159.6
|
M6.0-M8.0
about 28th Aug
|
M5.2 |
74% |
20th August 2008
Lat -10.1 Lon 161.3
165km ESE Honiara,
Guadalcanal,
Solomon Islands
|
Sumatra- Northern
within ≈500
km of Medan, Nth Sumatra
Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67 |
M6.0-M8.0
about 14th Aug |
M4.9 |
70% |
7th August 2008
Lat 5.3 Lon 92.8
280 km west from
Banda Aceh, off coast
Northern Sumatra
|
Sumatra- Southern
within ≈500
km of Lubuktandjung
Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14 |
M6.0-M8.0
about 9th Aug |
M5.7 |
81% |
26th August 2008
Lat -6.4 Lon 104.4
140 km SW from
T.-Telukbetung,
Sunda Strait, Ind.
|
Taiwan
within 350
km of
T'ai-pei, Taiwan
at Lat 25.0 Lon 121.5
|
M5.0-M6.5
about 24th Aug
+/- 5 days
(revised 8 Aug
at 0245 hours) |
M5.0 |
87% |
8th August 2008
Lat 21.6 Lon 121.5
390 km S of T'ai-pei
(only 40 km outside
prediction zone)
|
Turkey-
Western
within ≈350
km of Usak, Turkey
Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4
|
M4.5-M5.5
about 15th Aug |
M4.3 |
86% |
27th August 2008
Lat 36.3 Lon 27.8
178 km S of Aydin,
Western Turkey. In
Dodecanese Islands |
Vanuatu
within ≈500
km
Port-Vila centered at
Lat -17.4 Lon 168.2
|
M4.8-M5.8
about 8th Aug |
M5.1 |
96% |
9th August 2008
Lat -14.8 Lon 167.2
350 km NNW from
Port-Vila, Vanuatu |
Table 7. Regional Forecasts for 3rd-31st July 2008.
The largest earthquakes for this period are likely to fall within the magnitude ranges listed below (probability >90% when magnitude accuracy is compared to the mid range for each case). These forecasts were made at 0200 hrs on 3rd July 2008 (UTC).
Interim events given in the table are subject to review if a larger
event occurs by the end of the forecast period on 31 July 2008.
REGION |
Expected
Magnitude
Range |
Observed
Maximum
Magnitude
|
Accuracy compared to mid range (%) |
Date &
Location |
Bougainville P.N.G.
within ≈150
km from Sohano centered at
Lat -5.43 Lon 154.7 |
M3.8-M5.8
revised 2349 hr
17th July UTC
|
M4.3 |
90% |
9th July 2008
Lat -6.2 Lon 154.6
100 km W of Arawa
Bougainville,PNG
|
California- "Northern"
within 250 km
of
San Jose City Hall
Lat 37.3 Lon -121.9 |
M2.8-M3.8 |
M3.7 |
89% |
6th July 2008
Lat 35.6 Lon -120.8
7 km WNW from
Paso Robles, CA |
CA-Oregon
Off Coast
within 350 km
of a centerpoint at
Lat 42.3°
Lon -127°
|
M4.0-M5.0 |
M5.7 |
79% |
17th July 2008
Lat 44.4 Lon -129.4
418 W of Yachats
Off the Coast, Oregon |
California- "Southern"
within 250 km
of
LA
Civic Center at
Lat 34.0 Lon -118.25 |
M3.8-M5.8
revised 2322 hr
17th July UTC |
M5.4 |
89% |
29th July 2008
Lat 34.0 Lon-117.8
46 ESE from
Los Angeles Civic
Center |
Caribbean
within ≈400 km of
Mayagüez, PR
at
Lat 18.2 Lon -67° |
M3.8-M4.8
|
M4.8 |
90% |
4th July 2008
Lat 19.5 Lon -65.3
142 NNE Carolina
Puerto Rico |
Chile within ≈300 km of Antofagasta
Lat -23.6 Lon -70.4 |
M4.0-M5.0 |
M4.9 |
92% |
25th July 2008
Lat-22.4 Lon-68.0
290 km ENE from
Antofagasta |
China Sichuan Region
within 500 km
of a centerpoint at
Lat 31°
Lon 103.4° |
M4.0-M5.0 |
M5.8 |
78% |
23rd July 2008
Lat 32.8 Lon 105.6
45 km NNW from
Guangyuan
Sichuan-Gansu Border Region
|
Colombia within ≈350 km
of Medellin,
Sth Amer.
Lat 6.24 Lon -75.68 |
M3.5-M5.5
revised 2358 hr
17th July UTC |
M3.9 |
87% |
11th July 2008
Lat 7.55 Lon -73.13
345 km NNE Bogota
Northern Colombia |
Fiji Region
within ≈500 km of Suva centered at
Lat -18.14 Lon 178.4 |
M4.5-M5.5 |
M6.4 |
78% |
19th July 2008
Lat -17.3 Lon-177.4
460 km E Suva
|
Greece
within Lat 36-40°N
and Lon 20-25°E |
M3.5-M4.5 |
M5.0 |
80% |
30th July 2008
Lat 38.2 Lon 20.1
139 km W of Pátrai
|
Guatemala
within ≈275
km of Guatemala City at
Lat 14.6 Lon -90.5
|
M4.2-M5.2 |
M4.6 |
98% |
31st July 2008
Lat 13.6 Lon -90.7
110 km S from
Guatemala City |
Hawaii
within ≈250 km
of
a centerpoint at
Lat 19.9
Lon-155.9 on Island of Hawai |
M2.7-M3.7 |
M3.2 |
100% |
8th July 2008
Lat 19.4 Lon-155.3
9 km SW Volcano |
Hokkaido,
Japan
within ≈400 km from
Yubetsu, Hokkaido
Lat 44.2
Lon 155.9 |
M4.2-M6.2
revised 2230 hr
17th July UTC
|
M4.9 |
94% |
18th July 2008
Lat 43.4 Lon 147.7
275 ENE Kushiro,
340 ESE Yubetsu,
Hokkaido. Kuril Is'
|
Honshu,
Japan
within ≈500 km from
Tokyo at Lat 35.7°
and Lon 139.8°
|
M5.0-M6.0 |
M6.8 |
81% |
19th July 2008
Lat 37.6 Lon 142.1
115 SE Ishinomaki
Nr E Coast Honshu
(EMSC Source) |
Java
within ≈500 km from Semarang, Java
Lat -6.97 Lon 110.4
|
M4.5-M5.5 |
M5.5 |
91% |
11th July 2008
Lat -9.5 Lon 107.6
285 S of Bandung |
Mexico- 'Colima'
within ≈450
km of Guadalajara, Mexico
Lat 20.7 Lon -103.4 |
M3.8-M4.8 |
M4.4 |
98% |
20th July 2008
Lat 19.0 Lon -102.5
355 km W from
Mexico City,
Michoacan, Mexico |
Mexico- 'Oaxaca'
within ≈350
km of Oaxaca, OAXACA
Lat 17.0 Lon -96.7 |
M4.0-M5.0 |
M5.3 |
85% |
30th July 2008
Lat 16.4 Lon -95.7°
130 ESE of Oaxaca,
Oaxaca, Mexico
|
New Britain/ New Ireland P.N.G.
within ≈300 km Sulu
Lat -5.4 Lon 150.9 |
M4.2-M6.2
revised 0012 hr
18th July UTC |
M5.4 |
96% |
20th July 2008
Lat -3.8 Lon 150.8
135 S of Kavieng
New Ireland |
North Is.
New Zealand
within ≈400
km from Rotorua, North Is.
Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2 |
M4.0-M5.0
|
M4.9 |
92% |
22nd July 2008
Lat -39.6 Lon 174.4
190 km North from
Wellington, Nth Island |
South Is.
New Zealand
(top half) North
of Ashburton which
is at
Latitude -43.9°
|
M3.8-M4.8 |
M4.1 |
95% |
12th July 2008
La t-42.7 Lon 172.8
90 km N from
Christchurch,
South Island |
South Is.
New Zealand
(bottom half)
between Ashburton
and Lat -47.0° 150 km S of Invercargill
|
M3.5-M4.5 |
M5.0 |
80% |
12th July 2008
Lat-45.7 Lon 167.2
115 NW Invercargill
(USGS & EMSC data) |
Peru
within ≈500 km of Lima, Peru, at
Lat -12.1 Lon -77.0 |
M4.6-M6.6
revised 2342 hr
17th July UTC |
M4.8 |
86% |
19th July 2008
Lat -10.1 Lon -75.1
305 km NE of Lima
Central Peru
|
Philippines within ≈300 km from Manila, centered at
Lat 14.6 Lon 121.0 |
M4.0-M5.0 |
M5.4 |
83% |
6th July 2008
Lat 15.3 Lon 122.4
175 ENE of Manila |
'Solomons
Region'
within ≈500
km of Honiara, centered at
Lat -9.25 Lon 159.6
|
M4.5-M5.5 |
M6.0 |
83% |
28th July 2008
Lat -10.6 Lon 163.2
380 km ESE from
Honiara, Guadalcanal,
Solomon Islands
|
Sumatra- Northern
within ≈500
km of Medan, Nth Sumatra
Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67 |
M4.7-M5.7 |
M5.5 |
94% |
14th July 2008
Lat 2.3 Lon 96.6
270 WSW Medan,
Simeulue,
Northern Sumatra |
Sumatra- Southern
within ≈500
km of Lubuktandjung
Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14 |
M4.8-M5.8 |
M5.2 |
98% |
28th July 2008
Lat -1.1 Lon 99.8
65 WSW Pedang,
Kep. Mentawai Reg. |
Taiwan
within ≈250
km of Central Taiwan
at Lat23.8 Lon 121°
|
M5.0-M6.0 |
M4.8 |
87% |
11th July 2008
Lat 25.1 Lon 122.2
70 km E of T'ai-pei.
Also M6.1 outside
of
prediction zone
by
about 55 km S
|
Turkey-
Western
within ≈350
km of Usak, Turkey
Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4
|
M3.5-M4.5 |
M6.4 |
62% |
15th July 2008
Lat 35.98 Lon 27.78
145 km SSE of Mugla,
Dodecanese Islands
Greece, Nr W Turkey |
Vanuatu
within ≈500
km
Port-Vila centered at
Lat -17.4 Lon 168.2
|
M5.0-M6.0 |
M5.5 |
100% |
9th July 2008
Lat -20.9 Lon 168.7
358 S of Port-Vila
(Google Earth) |
Table 6. Regional Forecasts for 13 June-2 July 2008.
The largest earthquakes for this period are likely to fall within the magnitude ranges listed below (probability >90% when magnitude accuracy is compared to the mid range for each case). These forecasts were made at 1200 hrs on 13 June 2008.
Interim events given in the table are subject to review if a larger
event occurs by the end of the forecast period on 2 July 2008.
REGION |
Expected
Magnitude
Range |
Observed
Maximum
Magnitude
|
Accuracy compared to mid range (%) |
Date &
Location |
| Bougainville, P.N.G. |
M4.0-M5.0 |
M5.0 |
90% |
28 June 2008
Lat -6.5 Lon 154.9
75 WSW from
Arawa, PNG |
| California- Northern |
M3.0-M4.0
revised 19 June at 2129 hrs UTC |
M3.8 |
92% |
19 June 2008
23:57:52 hours
Lat 36.7 Lon -121.3
90 km SE San Jose |
| CA -Oregon Off Coast |
M5.0-M6.0 |
M5.4 |
98% |
29 June 2008
Lat 44.3 Lon-129.2
410 WNW Bandon |
| California- Southern |
M2.7-M3.7
revised 19 June at 2210 hrs UTC |
M3.6 |
89% |
23 June 2008
Lat 34.1 Lon-117.2
20 NE of Riverside
Greater Los Angeles
|
| Caribbean |
M3.5-M4.5 revised 19 June at 0818 hrs UTC
|
M3.7 |
92% |
19 June 2008
Lat -18.8 Lon 67.2
18:06:14 hrs
65 km N Mayaguez
Puerto Rico |
| Chile within 300 km of Antofagasta |
M5.0-M6.0 |
M4.6 |
84% |
14th June 2008
Lat-21.6 Lon-68.2
115 NNE Calama |
| China Sichuan Region |
M5.5-M6.5 revised 19 June at 2325 hrs UTC |
M4.8 |
80% |
27th June 2008
Lat 32.3 Lon 105.0
95 km NNE from
Mianyang
|
| Colombia within 350 km from Medellin, Sth Amer. |
M4.0-M5.0 |
M4.4 |
98% |
22 June 2008
Lat 6.7 Lon -73.0
260 NNE Bogota |
| Fiji Region |
M5.0-M6.0 |
M5.9 |
93% |
15 June 2008
Lat-17.7 Lon-179.8
200 ENE of Suva |
| Greece |
M4.5-M5.5 |
M5.4 |
92% |
21 June 2008
Lat 36.2 Lon 21.8
26 km S Pátrai
(EMSC data) |
| Guatemala |
M4.5-M5.5 |
M5.4 |
93 % |
29 June 2008
Lat 14.2 Lon -92.8
245 WSW from
Guatemala City |
| Hawaii |
M2.5-M3.5 |
M3.7 |
81% |
17 June 2008
Lat 19.8 Lon-156.0
15 km N of Kalaoa
Island of Hawaii |
| Japan- Hokkaido Region |
M4.5-5.5 |
M5.5 |
91% |
25 June 2008
Lat 41.9 Lon 142.5
160 SE Sapporo |
| Japan - Honshu Region |
M4.5-M5.5 |
M6.8 |
74% |
13 June 2008
Lat 39.1 Lon 140.7
390 km NNE of
Tokyo, Japan |
| Java |
M5.0-M6.0 revised 24 June at 0444 hrs UTC |
M4.9 |
89% |
15 June 2008
Lat -9.5 Lon 107.7
285 S of Bandung |
| Mexico- 'Colima Region' |
M4.0-M5.0 |
M4.2 |
93% |
16 June 2008
Lat 17.3 Lon -100.4
270 SSW from
Mexico City |
| Mexico- 'Oaxaca Region' |
M4.0-M5.0 |
M5.0 |
90% |
22 June 2008
Lat 16.7 Lon -93.9
300 km W Oaxaca
(Google Earth) |
| New Britain/ New Ireland, P.N.G. |
M5.5-M6.5 |
M5.7 |
95% |
25 June 2008
Lat 5.3 Lon 151.7
130 SSW Rabaul |
| New Zealand North Island |
M4.5-M5.5
revised 19 June at 0445 hrs UTC |
M4.1 |
82% |
24 June 2008
Lat -40.3 Lon 174.6
110 N Wellington |
| New Zealand South Island (top half) |
M3.5-M4.5 |
M3.4 |
85% |
20 June 2008
Lat-42.0 Lon 174.4
60 km SE Blenheim |
| New Zealand South Island (bottom half) |
M3.5-M4.5 revised 20 June at 1027 hrs UTC |
M5.2 |
77% |
23 June 2008
Lat -46.0 Lon 166.2
170 W Invercargill |
| Peru within 500 km of Lima |
M4.2-M5.2 revised 20 June at 0018 hrs UTC |
M5.5 |
85% |
1st July 2008
La t-10.4 Lon -75.5
260 NE from Lima |
| Philippines within 300 km of Manila |
M4.0-M5.0 |
M4.5 |
100% |
13th June 2008
Lat 15.4 Lon 120.9
90 km N of Manila
|
| Solomon Islands |
M5.0-M6.0 |
M5.8 |
95% |
22 June 2008
Lat -8.8 Lon 157.8
245 WNW from
Honiara, Solomons
|
| Sumatra, Northern |
M5.5-M6.5 revised 19 June at 0554 hrs UTC |
M5.6 |
93% |
25 June 2008
Lat 1.4 Lon 97.2
290 SSW of Medan |
| Sumatra, Southern |
M4.7-M5.7 revised 19 June at 0612 hrs UTC |
M5.3 |
98% |
24 June 2008
Lat-3.2 Lon 101.3
270 SSE Padang |
| Taiwan |
M4.0-M5.0 |
M4.7 |
96% |
15 June 2008
Lat 24.1 Lon 122.0
120 SSE T'ai-pei |
| Turkey, Western |
M3.5-4.5 |
M4.1 |
98% |
16 June 2008
Lat 39.6 Lon 28.6
64 E of Balikesir |
| Vanuatu |
M4.8-M5.8 |
M4.9 |
92% |
19 June 2008 Lat -18.2 Lon 167.6 90 km SW Port-Vila |
Table 5. Regional Forecasts for 5 May-3 June 2008.
The largest earthquakes for this period are likely to fall within the magnitude ranges listed below (probability >90% when magnitude accuracy is compared to the mid range for each case). These forecasts were made at 1015 hrs on 27 April 2008.
Interim events given in the table are subject to review if a larger event occurs by the end of the forecast period on 3 June, 2008.
