Earthquake predictions, long term forecasts

Forecasts of Largest Regional Earthquakes for Full Moon and New Moon Periods of
the Lunar Month Ahead

Breakthrough in Research (August 2008)

All new Long-term tables now include the expected dates for each earthquake forecast (column 2 below). This is being made possible by a very important breakthrough in the author's research which is being publicly tested and refined through the earthquake forecasts posted here. The expected dates are indicative only, and not binding.

These earthquake forecasts will now form the basis of any specific short-term predictions (for 10-day periods) which may be made on pages dedicated to the specific regions elsewhere on this web site. These short-term predictions will be subject to reviews of magnitude and timing as events unfold.

NOTES for Long-term Forecast tables below:

The largest earthquakes for each period are likely to fall within the magnitude ranges listed below (probability >85% when magnitude accuracy is compared to the mid range for each case).

Interim events given in the tables are subject to review if a larger event occurs by the end of the forecast period. However, the forecasts in the first column will generally remain unchanged. If a review becomes necessary for a given region the date of the review will be shown. Readers should see the dedicated pages for specific regions where short-term predictions, for periods below, may be updated and reviewed.

COLOR CODING of cell backgrounds in column #1 indicates those regions which currently have short-term prediction tables on their respective pages (see side menu above).

The expected dates (in column 2) are indicative only, and not binding. For June/July 2009, about 83% of the long-term forecasts are falling within +/-5 days of the forecast date, and about 64% within +/-3 days. These statistics have been steadily improving. Currently, the success rate* for forecasting magnitudes is >85% . Successful forecasts are made up to 39 days in advance, the average being about 20 days ahead.
*where magnitude accuracy, as given in the tables, is equal to at least 80%

Why updates may be necessary... because earthquakes interact in a very dynamic system. Just as in reporting the weather, the latest information must be taken into account to improve forecasting.

October 2009: The ability to forecast large earthquakes, greater than M6.0, more accurately and many days in
  advance, has been greatly enhanced by a new finding
  that enabled us to forecast the approximate magnitude
  of the Padang, Sumatra, earthquake (30 September)
  two weeks in advance. The Padang earthquake was the
  first test of our new modelling process. It may be a few
months before all the sites below are fully included in
the new modelling, and the benefits become apparent.

                             CURRENT TABLES
                           Tables of Recent Earthquakes
                                     and Events Pending

Table 50b. Jan 9-22* 2012*

Full Moon Period (current table)

Table 51a. Jan 23-Feb 6* 2012

New Moon Period (next table)

Please scroll down...

*Allow approximately +/-1 day for earthquakes that occur on the cusp between moon periods. Forecast events will be posted as they become available, with the times of posting given in the table.
Only the observed events subsequent to posting, or any revision, are valid for judging success.

*All dates are UTC (Coordinated Universal Time)

Please note new email address is: reginaldroberts@bigpond.com*

*See Disclaimer below

For each of the respective regions and time periods, the probability that the largest earthquake will fall within the 'Forecast Magnitude Ranges' (+/- 0.1 magnitude) is currently as follows:

           <M4.0 - greater than 85% probability
               M4.0-M4.9.............>95% probability
               M5.0-M5.9.............>95% probability
               M6.0+....................>90% probability

Disclaimer

The earthquake predictions and long-term forecasts published on this website are given in good faith, however the author accepts no responsibility for their use and interpretation, either directly, indirectly, or implied. Any person or organisation that uses the earthquake predictions or forecasts on this website for any purpose whatsoever does so solely in their own discretion and at their own risk. Although the author endeavours to ensure the effectiveness of such predictions or forecasts, the author does not guarantee to any extent the accuracy thereof. Additionally, the display of advertisements on the right hand side of any pages of this website in no way implies that the author of this website approves, supports, endorses or warrants in any way any aspect of the products or services that may be advertised there.©

The author's forecasts do not cover all countries of the world, and nor do they usually cover all regions within a given country. Forecasts are made only for the specific study regions outlined in the tables below, and the author does not claim to be able to successfully forecast all large earthquakes in each of these regions.

Finally, the author makes no guarantee whatsoever that this website, and the free earthquake forecasting service provided via this website, will be maintained and updated for any period of time in the future

*The Disclaimer above also applies to all emails from the author.

Donations are urgently sought to help the author to sustain this website and continue the work to complete the research that has been providing free earthquake forecasts via this website for the past four years. The forecasts now cover over 40 earthquake-prone regions of the world and the website is one of the most followed earthquake forecasting sites in the world, attracting the interest of people at all levels of society, from universities and research institutes, state and city administrative and welfare organisations, to ordinary people who have claimed that lives have been actually or potentially saved as a result of these forecasts.

NOTE: All donations shall be treated as thanks for the research both already done and that the author hopes to continue and to publish. By making a donation, you acknowledge that you will not receive any rights or privileges in return, and you will not become privy to any of the methodologies used in making the author's earthquake forecasts and that such matters are the author’s intellectual property, although the author hopes to publish details of such methodologies at some point in the future. Also, all users and donors acknowledge that any continuity or longevity of this website is not and cannot be guaranteed, given that, amongst other things, the author is now 77 years of age. However, the author hopes there will be sufficient donations to allow the maintenance of the website and the author’s research for at least another year or two before the author anticipates attempting to publish the theories underpinning the author’s forecasts. The author, for his part, remains fully committed to completing his research and to maintaining this website for as long as he is reasonably able to do so. His commitment to this is evident in his self-funded maintenance of the site for four years already, and he is now working long into retirement to complete his publication, "Cracking of the earthquake code”.

IN YOUR ACT OF MAKING A DONATION, YOU ACKNOWLEDGE THAT YOU HAVE ACCEPTED ALL THE CONDITIONS IN THE ABOVE NOTE, AND THAT YOU HAVE READ AND UNDERSTOOD THE TERMS OF ALL DISCLAIMERS ON THIS WEBSITE.

Please kindly make your donation NOW! Whether small or large, all donations will be acknowledged, if at all possible, provided that sufficient donor details are provided. Of course, donations may be made anonymously.

PLEASE MAKE A DONATION NOW!
Your donations may help save many lives!

LAST UPDATE 2333 hours 25th January 2012 (UTC).

Table 51a. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period

from January 23-February 6* 2012 (UTC)

REGIONS USA/Canadian regions listed first, by latitude, then other regions in alphabetical order	Forecast Magnitude Ranges & Dates (UTC)	Observed Maximum Magnitude in each region	Mag. Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date (UTC) & Location
Alaska USA Southern Region within ≈600 km of a new center at Lat 59.6 and Lon -148.9, about 185 km S of Anchorage.	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Feb 3+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
Vancouver Is. and Seattle Regions CANADA/USA within ≈525 km radius of Tofino, B.C. at Lat 49.159 and Lon -125.874	M1.7-M3.7 expected about Jan 29 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)	M3.4	79%	25th January 2012 Lat 46.340 Lon -122.236 16 km NNW of Mount St. Helens Volcano, WA (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead
California - Oregon USA Border Region Coast & Off Coast within ≈550 km of a center at Lat 41.29 Lon -125.95 160 km west of Orick, CA	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Jan 30 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
California 1. 'Northern and Central CA' (& Western Nevada) within ≈450 km radius of Redwood Valley, CA at Lat 39.265 and Lon -123.204. Includes events off the coast near Eureka, CA, in the Triple Junction Region. **see table footnote	M2.9-M4.9 expected about Feb 3+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)	M3.8	97%	24th January 2012 Lat 38.969 Lon -122.693 116 km WNW of Sacramento, Northern California (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
California 2. Central, Southern, & Baja California Regions Within ≈400 km of Beaumont, CA, at Lat 33.930 and Lon -116.978 **see table footnote	M2.9-M4.9 expected about Jan 31 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
New Madrid Region Central USA Within ≈550 km of a center at Springfield, Missouri, Lat 37.214 Lon -93.293 Extends to Central Oklahoma	M2.1-M4.1 expected about Jan 30 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
Hawaii USA Within 500 km of a center at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on the Island of Hawaii	M2.2-M4.2 expected about Jan 30 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
Caribbean 1. Puerto Rico and East Dominican Republic Region within ≈350 km of a center, in Caribbean at Lat 17.10 and Lon -68.50. This region, which overlaps the zone below, does not include the Virgin Islands.	M2.9-M4.9 expected about Jan 29 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
Caribbean 2. Haiti & Dominican Republic,SE Cuba & Jamaica Region within ≈600 km of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, at Lat 18.54 & Lon -72.334	M2.7-M4.7 expected about Feb 3+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
Bucharest Romania Region within ≈250 km of Bucharest at Lat 44.44 & Lon 26.093. Includes part of Northern Bulgaria.	M2.3-M4.3 expected about Jan 29 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
Chile 1. Northern Region within≈600 km of a center point 37 km NNE of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.34 Lon -70.29 (zone revised 3rd July 2011)	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Jan 29 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
Chile 2. Central Region within 500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon -71.359	M4.4-M6.4 expected about Feb 3+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)	M6.2	87%	23rd January 2012 Lat -36.415 Lon -73.015 50 km N of Concepcion, Offshore Bio-Bio, Chile (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
China* Within 650 km of Liangshan, Sichuan at Lat 27.880 Lon 102.264 *Forecasts for China will be for the largest quake expected in the FULL lunar month (FM + NM periods). More exact timing cannot be forecast because of inadequate amounts of data readily available from China	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Jan 26 +/-3 days (revised 0332 hours 4th Jan)
Colombia Region within 600 km of a center 90 km SW of ARUSI, Colombia, at Lat 5.714 Lon -78.034 Extends from Panama Region to Western Venezuela	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Jan 29 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)	M5.0	88%	25th January 2012 Lat 5.503 Lon -77.476 102 km WSW of Quibdo, Near the West Coast of Colombia (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead
Fiji-Tonga Region Maximum Depth ≈200km and within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.6-M6.6 expected about Jan 30 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
Greece within 300 km of a center point at Pyrgos, Greece (Lat 37.676 & Lon 21.422)	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Jan 30 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
Guatemala Coastal Region within ≈300 km of a center point at Lat 14.07 Lon -91.92 offshore Guatemala, extending NW to southern Chiapas, Mex., & SE to El Salvador.	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Jan 28 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
El Salvador -Costa Rica Region includes southeast Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica within ≈500 km of a center point at La Trinidad, Nicaragua (Lat 12.566 Lon -86.178) Zone revised 19th April.	M4.4-M6.4 expected about Jan 31 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
Indonesia 1. Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Jan 28 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
Indonesia 2. Sumatra Southern Region within ≈350 km of Bengkulu Utara, Southern Sumatra, centered at Lat -2.67 and Lon 101.34 (revised region on 18th April, at 1205 hrs)	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Feb 3+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
Indonesia 3. Sunda Strait Southern Sumatra to Java Region includes very southern Sumatra & Western Java, within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M4.9-M6.9 expected about Jan 30 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
Italy Region within ≈500 km of a center in the Tyrrhenian Sea at Lat 40.28 Lon 11.88 (now excluding Alpine Northern Italy and Bosnia/ Montenegro Regions across the Adriatic Sea)	M2.3-M4.3 expected about Jan 26 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
Japan 1. Hokkaido Region & Northernmost Honshu Region within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62 **see table footnote	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Jan 26 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)	M4.8	94%	23rd January 2012 Lat 45.994 Lon 143.068 126 km ENE of Wakhanai, Hokkaido Region, Japan (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
Japan 2. Honshu - Northern Region within ≈500 km of the M9.0 epicenter off East Coast of Honshu at Lat 38.322 Lon 142.369 **see table footnote	M4.8-M6.8 expected about Feb 3+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
Japan 3. Honshu - Southern Region New zone within ≈350 km of GIFU at Lat 35.424 Lon 136.760 **see table footnote	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Jan 26 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈550 km of a NEW CENTRE near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Tajikistan, 66 km W of Kashgar, Xinjiang, China at Lat 40.58 Lon 77.286	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Jan 26 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
Mexico Southern Region within ≈350 km of a center in Guerrero at Lat 18.038 Lon -99.796 (45 km SW of Iguala, Guerrero)	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Jan 30 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
New Britain Region, PNG within 400 km of a center at KImbe, NB, at Lat -5.548 Lon 150.140	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Jan 26 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)	M5.2	100%	25th January 2012 Lat -5.250 Lon 152.162 116 km S of Rabaul, New Britain Region, PNG (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead
New Zealand "Northern Region" within ≈400 km of Taupo, North Island, New Zealand Lat -38.687 Lon 176.07, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island **see table footnote	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Feb 3 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
New Zealand Southern Region within 500 km from Christchurch, South Island Lat -43.527, Lon 172.622 **see table footnote	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Jan 28 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
New Zealand Lower South Island within ≈450 km of Queenstown at Lat -45.030 and Lon 168.66 **see table footnote	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Jan 31 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)	M5.7	81%	25th January 2012 Lat -46.80 Lon 165.43 230 km W of Invercargill, SW of New Zealand (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 14 days ahead
Pakistan Islamabad Region within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Jan 28 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
Peru Region Central & Southern within ≈600 km of an Angostura center at Lat -15.875 and Lon -74.096	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Jan 28 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
Philippines Region Philippines Region within ≈600 km of a center point at LABO, Lat 14.15 Lon 122.673	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Jan 26 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
Samoa/Tonga within ≈350 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Jan 28 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
Solomon Is'- Bougainville Region within ≈600 km of center at Lat -8.41 Lon 158.66	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Jan 28 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
Spain and Portugal - Southern Regions Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco within ≈450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567	M2.6-M4.6 expected about Feb 1 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
Taiwan Region within 450 km of a center at Lat 23.50 and Lon 123.50	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Feb 3 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
Tibetan Plateau and Himalayan Region includes cities like Kathmandu, New Delhi, and Islamabad within ≈900 km of a Tibetan center located at Lat 32.28 Lon 81.98	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Feb 2 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)
Turkey New zone within ≈425 km of a center at BAYAT, 135 km ENE of Usak, at Lat 38.987 and Lon 30.920 (revised 18th January 2012)	M2.8-M4.8 expected about Feb 3 +/-3 days (revised 0254 hours 18th Jan)
Vanuatu Region within ≈350 km from a center at Lat -19.182 and Lon 168.270, 160 km S of PORT-VILA, Vanuatu. Includes Southeast Loyalty Islands Region	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Jan 26 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 11th Jan)

Table 50b. Regional forecasts for Full Moon Period

from January 9-22* 2012 (UTC)

REGIONS USA/Canadian regions listed first, by latitude, then other regions in alphabetical order	Forecast Magnitude Ranges & Dates (UTC)	Observed Maximum Magnitude in each region	Mag. Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date (UTC) & Location
Alaska USA Southern Region within ≈600 km of a new center at Lat 59.6 and Lon -148.9, about 185 km S of Anchorage.	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Jan 18 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M4.4	92%	13th January 2012 Lat 57.452 Lon -149.100 418 km S of Anchorage, in Gulf of Alaska (USGS source) forecast 16 days ahead
Vancouver Is. and Seattle Regions CANADA/USA within ≈525 km radius of Tofino, B.C. at Lat 49.159 and Lon -125.874	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Jan 18 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M4.7	74%	13th January 2012 Lat 51.262 Lon -130.361 182 km WSW of Bella Bella, B.C. Haida Gwaii Region, Canada (USGS source) forecast 16 days ahead
California - Oregon USA Border Region Coast & Off Coast within ≈550 km of a center at Lat 41.29 Lon -125.95 160 km west of Orick, CA	M2.4-M4.4 expected about Jan 17 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M4.3	79%	17th January 2012 Lat 40.556 Lon -124.791 45 km W of Ferndale, CA (USGS source) forecast 20 days ahead
California 1. 'Northern and Central CA' (& Western Nevada) within ≈450 km radius of Redwood Valley, CA at Lat 39.265 and Lon -123.204. Includes events off the coast near Eureka, CA, in the Triple Junction Region. **see table footnote	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Jan 19 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M4.3	93%	17th January 2012 Lat 40.556 Lon -124.791 45 km W of Ferndale, CA (USGS source) forecast 20 days ahead
California 2. Central, Southern, & Baja California Regions Within ≈400 km of Beaumont, CA, at Lat 33.930 and Lon -116.978 **see table footnote	M2.9-M4.9 expected about Jan 17 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M4.2	93%	18th January 2012 Lat 32.461 Lon -115.260 29 km SE of Mexicali, Baja California, Mexico (USGS source) forecast 21 days ahead
New Madrid Region Central USA Within ≈550 km of a center at Springfield, Missouri, Lat 37.214 Lon -93.293 Extends to Central Oklahoma	M2.2-M4.2 expected about Jan 19 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M2.7	84%	9th January 2012 Lat 35.54 Lon -97.27 23 km ENE of OKLAHOMA CITY, OK (USGS Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 12 days ahead
Hawaii USA Within 500 km of a center at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on the Island of Hawaii	M2.6-M4.6 expected about Jan 17 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M4.7	76%	23rd January 2012, 0236 hr, on cusp of moons, Lat 19.336 Lon -155.120 15 km S of Fern Forest, HI (USGS source) forecast 26 days ahead
Caribbean 1. Puerto Rico and East Dominican Republic Region within ≈350 km of a center, in Caribbean at Lat 17.10 and Lon -68.50. This region, which overlaps the zone below, does not include the Virgin Islands.	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Jan 16 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M3.8	95%	15th January 2012 Lat 18.187 Lon -68.508 156 km ESE of SANTO DOMINGO, Dominican Republic, in Mona Passage (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Caribbean 2. Haiti & Dominican Republic,SE Cuba & Jamaica Region within ≈600 km of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, at Lat 18.54 & Lon -72.334	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Jan 15 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M5.1	82%	23rd January 2012 Lat 19.572 Lon -70.073 123 km N of SANTO DOMINGO, Dominican Republic (USGS source) forecast 26 days ahead
Bucharest Romania Region within ≈250 km of Bucharest at Lat 44.44 & Lon 26.093. Includes part of Northern Bulgaria.	M2.8-M4.8 expected about Jan 19 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M4.4	86%	10th January 2012 Lat 45.49 Lon 26.29 56 km NW of Buzau, Romania (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 13 days ahead
Chile 1. Northern Region within≈600 km of a center point 37 km NNE of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.34 Lon -70.29 (zone revised 3rd July 2011	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Jan 19 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M5.0	98%	22nd January 2012 Lat -28.682 Lon -71.030 5 km S Vallenar, Atacama, Chile (USGS source) forecast 25 days ahead
Chile 2. Central Region within 500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon -71.359	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Jan 16 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M5.6	89%	17th January 2012 Lat -31.634 Lon -71.556 224 km NNW of SANTIAGO, Coquimbo, Chile (USGS source) forecast 20 days ahead
China* Within 650 km of Liangshan, Sichuan at Lat 27.880 Lon 102.264 *Forecasts for China will be for the largest quake expected in the FULL lunar month (FM + NM periods). More exact timing cannot be forecast because of inadequate amounts of data readily available from China	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Jan 26 +/-3 days (revised 0332 hours 4th Jan)
Colombia Region New zone within 600 km of a center 90 km SW of ARUSI, Colombia, at Lat 5.714 Lon -78.034 Extends from Panama Region to Western Venezuela	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Jan 12 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M4.5	96%	10th January 2012 Lat 4.213 Lon -82.623 467 km S of David, Panama (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Fiji-Tonga Region Maximum Depth ≈200km and within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Jan 12 +/-3 days (posted 0455 hours 29th Dec)	M5.4	92%	9th January 2012 Lat -22.06 Lon -173.86 174 km SE of NUKU'ALOFA, Tonga Region (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 11 days ahead
Greece within 300 km of a center point at Pyrgos, Greece (Lat 37.676 & Lon 21.422)	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Jan 13 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M3.9	98%	22nd January 2012 Lat 36.85 Lon 23.57 123 km S of Kallithéa, Southern Greece (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 25 days ahead
Guatemala Coastal Region within ≈300 km of a center point at Lat 14.07 Lon -91.92 offshore Guatemala, extending NW to southern Chiapas, Mex., & SE to El Salvador.	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Jan 19 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M6.3	78%	21st January 2012 Lat 14.963 Lon -93.087 91 km W of Tapachula Offshore Chiapas, Mexico (USGS source) forecast 24 days ahead
El Salvador -Costa Rica Region includes southeast Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica within ≈500 km of a center point at La Trinidad, Nicaragua (Lat 12.566 Lon -86.178) Zone revised 19th April.	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Jan 14+/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M4.7	98%	16th January 2012 Lat 12.218 Lon -88.030 191 km W of MANAGUA, Near the Coast of Nicaragua (USGS source) forecast 19 days ahead
Indonesia 1. Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Jan 15 +/-3 days (posted 0550 hours 28th Dec)	M5.1	98%	13th January 2012 Lat 2.362 Lon 96.288 296 km WSW of Medan, Simeulue, Indonesia (USGS source) forecast 16 days ahead NOTE: the M7.3 of 10th January was well outside the forecast zone
Indonesia 2. Sumatra Southern Region within ≈350 km of Bengkulu Utara, Southern Sumatra, centered at Lat -2.67 and Lon 101.34 (revised region on 18th April, at 1205 hrs)	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Jan 15 +/-3 days (posted 0455 hours 29th Dec)	M4.5	86%	11th January 2012 Lat -1.66 Lon 99.82 99 km SW of Padang, Kep. Mentawai Region (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 13 days ahead
Indonesia 3. Sunda Strait Southern Sumatra to Java Region includes very southern Sumatra & Western Java, within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Jan 18 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M4.6	92%	18th January 2012 Lat -6.097 Lon 104.066 219 km W of Cilegon, Java, in Sunda Strait (USGS source) forecast 21 days ahead
Italy Region within ≈500 km of a center in the Tyrrhenian Sea at Lat 40.28 Lon 11.88 (now excluding Alpine Northern Italy and Bosnia/ Montenegro Regions across the Adriatic Sea)	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Jan 16 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M3.5	100%	22nd January 2012 Lat 39.29 Lon 15.60 122 km N of Messina, Southern Italy (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 25 days ahead
Japan 1. Hokkaido Region & Northernmost Honshu Region within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62 **see table footnote	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Jan 19 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M4.7	90%	20th January 2012 Lat 41.561 Lon 142.163 121 km E of Hakodate, Hokkaido, Japan Region (USGS source) forecast 23 days ahead
Japan 2. Honshu - Northern Region within ≈500 km of the M9.0 epicenter off East Coast of Honshu at Lat 38.322 Lon 142.369 **see table footnote	M4.6-M6.6 expected about Jan 16 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M5.7	98%	12th January 2012 Lat 36.994 Lon 141.129 22 km ESE of Iwaki, Near the East Coast of Honshu (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
Japan 3. Honshu - Southern Region New zone within ≈350 km of GIFU at Lat 35.424 Lon 136.760 **see table footnote	M4.8-M6.8 expected about Jan 16 +/-3 days (revised 0635 hours 6th Jan)	M4.8	83%	17th January 2012 Lat 36.16 Lon 139.64 22 km E of Kumagaya, Eastern Honshu, Japan (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 11 days ahead
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈550 km of a NEW CENTRE near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Tajikistan, 66 km W of Kashgar, Xinjiang, China at Lat 40.58 Lon 77.286	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Jan 12 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M5.0	100%	13th January 2012 Lat 35.940 Lon 70.563 130 km S of Faizabad, Hindu Kush Region, Afghanistan (USGS source) forecast 16 days ahead
Mexico Southern Region New zone within ≈350 km of a center in Guerrero at Lat 18.038 Lon -99.796 (45 km SW of Iguala, Guerrero)	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Jan 12 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M4.7	98%	11th January 2012 Lat 15.954 Lon -95.288 26 km SSW of Salina Cruz, Offshore Oaxaca, Mexico (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead
New Britain Region, PNG within 400 km of a center at KImbe, NB, at Lat -5.548 Lon 150.140	M4.8-M6.8 expected about Jan 12 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M5.0	86%	13th January 2012 Lat -6.47 Lon 150.38 106 km S of Kimbe, New Britain Region, PNG (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 16 days ahead
New Zealand "Northern Region" within ≈400 km of Taupo, North Island, New Zealand Lat -38.687 Lon 176.07, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island **see table footnote	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Jan 12 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M4.7	96%	17th January 2012 Lat -40.40 Lon 176.68 80 km S of Hastings, Hawke's Bay, North Island, New Zealand (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 20 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within 500 km from Christchurch, South Island Lat -43.527, Lon 172.622 **see table footnote	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Jan 19 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M5.0	98%	14th January 2012 Lat -43.55 Lon 172.80 10 km E of Christchurch South Island, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 17 days ahead
New Zealand Lower South Island within ≈450 km of Queenstown at Lat -45.030 and Lon 168.66 **see table footnote	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Jan 19 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M5.8	81%	19th January 2012 Lat -46.86 Lon 165.59 220 km W of Invercargill, South-west of NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 22 days ahead
Pakistan Islamabad Region within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Jan 12 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M5.0	96%	13th January 2012 Lat 35.940 Lon 70.563 130 km S of Faizabad, Hindu Kush Region, Afghanistan (USGS source) forecast 16 days ahead
Peru Region Central & Southern within ≈600 km of an Angostura center at Lat -15.875 and Lon -74.096	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Jan 19 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M4.5	98%	13th January 2012 Lat -14.419 Lon -75.252 64 km SE of Ica, Near the Coast of Central Peru (USGS source) forecast 16 days ahead
Philippines Region Philippines Region within ≈600 km of a center point at LABO, Lat 14.15 Lon 122.673	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Jan 19 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M5.7	84%	14th January 2012 Lat 19.237 Lon 121.100 126 km NNE of Laoag, Luzon. Babuyan Islands Region, Philippines (USGS source) forecast 17 days ahead
Samoa/Tonga within ≈350 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Jan 19 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M5.4	87%	12th January 2012 Lat -16.528 Lon -173.391 74 km SSE of Hihifo, Tonga (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
Solomon Is'- Bougainville Region within ≈600 km of center at Lat -8.41 Lon 158.66	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Jan 15 +/-3 days (posted 0455 hours 29th Dec)	M4.8	98%	15th January 2012 Lat -7.296 Lon 155.109 126 km SSW of Arawa, Bougainville, Solomon Islands (USGS source) forecast 17 days ahead
Spain and Portugal - Southern Regions Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco within 450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567	M2.8-M4.8 expected about Jan 16 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M3.6	95%	18th January 2012 Lat 35.58 Lon -0.90 29 km SW of Wahran, Northern Algeria (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 21 days ahead, only 75 km outside zone
Taiwan Region within 450 km of a center at Lat 23.50 and Lon 123.50	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Jan 19 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M4.6	98%	16th January 2012 Lat 21.201 Lon 121.615 178 km SSE of Taitung, Taiwan Region (USGS source) forecast 19 days ahead
Tibetan Plateau and Himalayan Region includes cities like Kathmandu, New Delhi, and Islamabad within ≈900 km of a Tibetan center located at Lat 32.28 Lon 81.98	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Jan 19 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M4.0	85%	23rd January 2012, on cusp of the moons, Lat 32.599 Lon 89.196 297 km WNW of Nagqu, Western Xizang, China (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 26 days ahead
Turkey within ≈425 km of a center at INSTANBUL, Turkey, at Lat 41.005 Lon 28.976 (region includes most of Western & Central Turkey, plus regions of Aegean and Black Seas)	M2.9-M4.9 expected about Jan 12 +/-3 days (posted 0410 hours 28th Dec)	M3.7	95%	11th January 2012 Lat 39.11 Lon 29.12 54 km NW of Usak, Western Turkey (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 14 days ahead
Vanuatu Region New zone within ≈350 km from a center at Lat -19.182 and Lon 168.270, 160 km S of PORT-VILA, Vanuatu. Includes Southeast Loyalty Islands Region	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Jan 12 +/-3 days (posted 0455 hours 29th Dec)	M4.9	94%	11th January 2012 Lat -17.156 Lon 168.80 81 km NE of PORT-VILA, Vanuatu (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead

*EMSC/CSEM http://www.emsc-csem.org/

**In New Zealand, California, Japan, and elsewhere in the world, there may be overlapping zones because interactions between earthquakes in such regions make it impossible to have discrete zones for forecasting earthquakes. Thus, for those living in the overlapping areas, the largest quake that is forecast in each of the respective overlapping zones should be considered as potentially relevant.
***These regional forecasts are NOT made for specific cities, rather these cities fall in the regional forecast zone which has a radius of 900 km.

Table 50a. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period

from December 24-January 8* 2012 (UTC)

REGIONS USA/Canadian regions listed first, by latitude, then other regions in alphabetical order	Forecast Magnitude Ranges & Dates (UTC)	Observed Maximum Magnitude in each region	Mag. Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date (UTC) & Location
Alaska USA Southern Region within ≈600 km of a new center at Lat 59.6 and Lon -148.9, about 185 km S of Anchorage.	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Jan 2 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M4.8	92%	6th January 2012 Lat 59.851 Lon -153.263 243 km SW of Anchorage, Southern Alaska (USGS source) forecast 20 days ahead
Vancouver Is. and Seattle Regions CANADA/USA within ≈525 km radius of Tofino, B.C. at Lat 49.159 and Lon -125.874	M2.0-M4.0 expected about Dec 29 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M4.0	75%	2nd January 2012 Lat 48.80 Lon -129.61 264 km SW of Pt Hardy, BC (Natural Resources/ Earthquakes Canada) forecast 16 days ahead
California - Oregon USA Border Region Coast & Off Coast within ≈550 km of a center at Lat 41.29 Lon -125.95 160 km west of Orick, CA	M2.9-M4.9 expected about Jan 5 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M3.2	82%	5th January 2012 Lat 41.032 Lon -127.178 250 km WNW of Ferndale, Off the Coast of Northern California (USGS source) forecast 19 days ahead
California 1. 'Northern and Central CA' (& Western Nevada) within ≈450 km radius of Redwood Valley, CA at Lat 39.265 and Lon -123.204. Includes events off the coast near Eureka, CA, in the Triple Junction Region. **see table footnote	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Jan 5 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M3.2	80%	5th January 2012 Lat 41.032 Lon -127.178 250 km WNW of Ferndale, Off the Coast of Northern California (USGS source) forecast 19 days ahead
California 2. Central, Southern, & Baja California Regions Within ≈400 km of Beaumont, CA, at Lat 33.930 and Lon -116.978 **see table footnote	M3.1-M5.1 expected about Dec 31 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M4.3	95%	30th December 2011 Lat 32.141 Lon -115.297 59 km SSE of Mexicali, Baja California, Mexico (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
New Madrid Region Central USA Within ≈550 km of a center at Springfield, Missouri, Lat 37.214 Lon -93.293 Extends to Central Oklahoma	M2.0-M4.0 expected about Dec 27 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M3.5	86%	31st December 2011 Lat 35.435 Lon -96.569 86 km E of OKLAHOMA CITY, Oklahoma, USA (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead
Hawaii USA Within 500 km of a center at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on the Island of Hawaii	M2.3-M4.3 expected about Jan 4 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M3.8	87%	28th December 2011 Lat 20.042 Lon -156.025 21 km NW of Puako, Maui Region, Hawaii (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Caribbean 1. Puerto Rico and East Dominican Republic Region within ≈350 km of a center, in Caribbean at Lat 17.10 and Lon -68.50. This region, which overlaps the zone below, does not include the Virgin Islands.	M2.8-M4.8 expected about Dec 28 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M3.7	97%	27th December 2011 Lat 18.310 Lon -68.457 159 km E of SANTO DOMINGO, Mona Passage, Dominican Republic (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead
Caribbean 2. Haiti & Dominican Republic,SE Cuba & Jamaica Region within ≈600 km of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, at Lat 18.54 & Lon -72.334	M4.4-M6.4 expected about Jan 5 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M5.3	98%	5th January 2012 Lat -36.980 Lon -73.571 55 km W of SANTO DOMINGO, Dominican Republic (USGS source) forecast 19 days ahead
Bucharest Romania Region within ≈250 km of Bucharest at Lat 44.44 & Lon 26.093. Includes part of Northern Bulgaria.	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Dec 31 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M4.1	98%	1st January 2012 Lat 45.01 Lon 23.55 66 km W of Rámnicu válcea, Romania (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 15 days ahead
Chile 1. Northern Region within≈600 km of a center point 37 km NNE of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.34 Lon -70.29 (zone revised 3rd July 2011)	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Jan 5 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M4.9	94%	28th December 2011 Lat -27.763 Lon -70.336 43 km S of Copiapo, Atacama, Chile (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Chile 2. Central Region within 500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon -71.359	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Dec 31 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M5.0	96%	6th January 2012 Lat -37.996 Lon -75.186 229 km SW of Concepcion, Off the Coast of Bio-Bio, Chile (USGS source) forecast 20 days ahead
China* Within 650 km of Liangshan, Sichuan at Lat 27.880 Lon 102.264 *Forecasts for China will be for the largest quake expected in the FULL lunar month (FM + NM periods). More exact timing cannot be forecast because of inadequate amounts of data readily available from China	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Dec 28+/-3 days (posted 2200 hours 7th Dec)	M4.9	98%	25th December 2011 Lat 31.223 Lon 103.720 65 km W of Deyang, Eastern Sichuan, China (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Colombia Region New zone within 600 km of a center 90 km SW of ARUSI, Colombia, at Lat 5.714 Lon -78.034 Extends from Panama Region to Western Venezuela	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Jan 1 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M4.7	98%	31st December 2011 Lat 1.735 Lon -77.223 471 km SW of BOGOTA, Northern Colombia (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead
Fiji-Tonga Region Maximum Depth 200 km and within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Jan 4 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M5.1	100%	28th December 2011 Lat -17.99 Lon -174.95 351 km N of Nuku'alofa, Tonga (EMSC/CSEM source) forecast 11 days ahead*
Greece within 300 km of a center point at Pyrgos, Greece (Lat 37.676 & Lon 21.422)	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Dec 31 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M4.8	94%	7th January 2012 Lat 38.58 Lon 21.72 38 km NW of Pátrai, Greece (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 21 days ahead
Guatemala Coastal Region within ≈300 km of a center point at Lat 14.07 Lon -91.92 offshore Guatemala, extending NW to southern Chiapas, Mex., & SE to El Salvador	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Jan 4 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M4.6	98%	29th December 2011 Lat 15.55 Lon -91.153 123 km NNW of GUATEMALA, Guatemala (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
El Salvador -Costa Rica Region includes southeast Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica within ≈500 km of a center point at La Trinidad, Nicaragua (Lat 12.566 Lon -86.178) Zone revised 19th April.	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Jan 5 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M4.6	96%	31st December 2011 Lat 10.944 Lon -86.764 144 km SW of MANAGUA, Nicaragua, Off the Coast of Costa Rica (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead
Indonesia 1. Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Dec 30 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M5.3	92%	1st January 2012 Lat 4.577 Lon 96.427 163 km SE of Banda Aceh, Northern Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
Indonesia 2. Sumatra Southern Region within ≈350 km of Bengkulu Utara, Southern Sumatra, centered at Lat -2.67 and Lon 101.34 (revised region on 18th April, at 1205 hrs)	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Dec 31 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M5.2	92%	5th January 2012 Lat -0.88 Lon 99.03 147 km W of Padang, Southern Sumatra (EMSC/CSEM Preliminary Earthquake Report)* forecast 19 days ahead
Indonesia 3. Sunda Strait Southern Sumatra to Java Region includes very southern Sumatra & Western Java, within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Jan 2 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M5.3	89%	30th December 2011 Lat -5.89 Lon 104.29 195 km W of Cilegon, Java (USGS Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 13 days ahead
Italy Region within ≈500 km of a center in the Tyrrhenian Sea at Lat 40.28 Lon 11.88 (now excluding Alpine Northern Italy and Bosnia/ Montenegro Regions across the Adriatic Sea)	M2.9-M4.9 expected about Dec 31 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M3.5	90%	27th December 2011 Lat 39.62 Lon 16.89 100 km S of Taranto, Southern Italy (EMSC/CSEM source) forecast 10 days ahead*
Japan 1. Hokkaido Region & Northernmost Honshu Region within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62 **see table footnote	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Jan 2 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M4.8	94%	24th December 2011 Lat 43.56 Lon 114.47 54 km SE of Kitami, Hokkaido, Japan (EMSC/CSEM source) forecast 7 days ahead*
Japan 2. Honshu - Northern Region within ≈500 km of the M9.0 epicenter off East Coast of Honshu at Lat 38.322 Lon 142.369 **see table footnote	M5.3-M7.3 expected about Jan 2 +/-3 days (revised 0148 hours 28th Dec)	M5.2	82%	5th January 2012 Lat 38.79 Lon 142.22 90 km NE of Ishinomaki, Near East Coast of Honshu (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 8 days ahead
Japan 3. Honshu - Southern Region New zone within ≈500 km of center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040 **see table footnote	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Jan 2 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M6.8	76%	1st January 2012 Lat 31.416 Lon 138.155 495 km SSW of TOKYO, Izu Islands, Japan Region (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈550 km of a NEW CENTRE near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Tajikistan, 66 km W of Kashgar, Xinjiang, China at Lat 40.58 Lon 77.286	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 29 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M4.8	96%	29th December 2011 Lat 38.91 Lon 70.67 168 km E of Dushanbe, Tajikistan (EMSC/CSEM source) forecast 12 days ahead*
Mexico Southern Region New zone within ≈350 km of a center in Guerrero at Lat 18.038 Lon -99.796 (45 km SW of Iguala, Guerrero)	M3.1-M5.1 expected about Dec 27 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M4.4	93%	28th December 2011 Lat 16.466 Lon -94.852 50 km NE of Salina Cruz, Oaxaca, Mexico (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
New Britain Region, PNG within 400 km of a center at KImbe, NB, at Lat -5.548 Lon 150.140	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Dec 28 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M5.3	98%	24th December 2011 Lat -5.040 Lon 153.566 86 km SE of Taron, New Ireland Region (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
New Zealand "Northern Region" within ≈400 km of Taupo, North Island, New Zealand Lat -38.687 Lon 176.07, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island **see table footnote	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 30 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M5.1	98%	6th January 2012 Lat -37.52 Lon -179.81 230 km NE of Gisborne, NE of New Zealand (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 20 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within 500 km from Christchurch, South Island Lat -43.527, Lon 172.622 **see table footnote	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Jan 3 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M5.5	89%	1st January 2012 Lat -43.48 Lon 172.88 20 km E of Christchurch, South Island, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 15 days ahead
New Zealand Lower South Island within ≈450 km of Queenstown at Lat -45.030 and Lon 168.66 **see table footnote	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Jan 5 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M5.5	87%	1st January 2012 Lat -43.48 Lon 172.88 20 km E of Christchurch, South Island, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 15 days ahead
Pakistan Islamabad Region within ≈400 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Jan 4 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M4.9	98%	26th December 2011 Lat 36.42 Lon 70.90 82 km SSE of Faizabad, Hindu Kush Region, Afghanistan (USGS Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 9 days ahead
Peru Region Central & Southern within ≈600 km of an Angostura center at Lat -15.875 and Lon -74.096	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Dec 28 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M5.1	90%	30th December 2011 Lat -14.454 Lon -75.525 312 km SSE of LIMA, Near the Coast of Central Peru (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
Philippines Region Philippines Region within ≈600 km of a center point at LABO, Lat 14.15 Lon 122.673	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Dec 30 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M5.1	100%	26th December 2011 Lat 9.61 Lon 126.35 118 km NE of Butuan, Mindanao, Philippines (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 9 days ahead
Samoa/Tonga within ≈350 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Jan 4 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M6.0	77%	26th December 2011 Lat -16.155 Lon -173.799 28 km SSW of Hihifo, Tonga (USGS source) forecast 9 days ahead
Solomon Is'- Bougainville Region within ≈600 km of center at Lat -8.41 Lon 158.66	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Dec 30 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M5.3	98%	29th December 2011 Lat -4.652 Lon 155.199 177 km NNW of Arawa, Bougainville Region, PNG (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
Spain and Portugal - Southern Regions Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco within 450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Dec 26 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M3.6	90%	2nd January 2012 Lat 36.32 Lon -7.27 91 km W of Cádiz, Strait of Gibraltar (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 16 days ahead
Taiwan Region within 450 km of a center at Lat 23.50 and Lon 123.50	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Dec 31 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M4.6	96%	4th January 2012 Lat 23.96 Lon 121.63 5 km SE of Hualien, Taiwan (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 18 days ahead
Tibetan Plateau and Himalayan Region includes cities like Kathmandu, New Delhi, and Islamabad within ≈900 km of a Tibetan center located at Lat 32.28 Lon 81.98	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Dec 31 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M4.6	93%	3rd January 2012 Lat 35.79 Lon 77.25 281 km SW of Hetian, Kashmir-Xinjiang Border Region (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 17 days ahead
Turkey within ≈425 km of a center at INSTANBUL, Turkey, at Lat 41.005 Lon 28.976 (region includes most of Western & Central Turkey, plus regions of Aegean and Black Seas)	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Jan 4 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M4.4	91%	27th December 2011 Lat 37.880 Lon 27.096 58 km S of Izmir, Western Turkey (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead
Vanuatu Region New zone within ≈350 km from a center at Lat -19.182 and Lon 168.270, 160 km S of PORT-VILA, Vanuatu. Includes Southeast Loyalty Islands Region	M4.6-M6.6 expected about Jan 2 +/-3 days (posted 0300 hours 17th Dec)	M5.6	100%	26th December 2011 Lat -19.151 Lon 168.686 161 km SSE of PORT-VILA, Vanuatu (USGS source) forecast 9 days ahead

EMSC/CSEM http://www.emsc-csem.org/

Table 49b. Regional forecasts for Full Moon Period

from December 10-23* 2011 (UTC)

REGIONS USA/Canadian regions listed first, by latitude, then other regions in alphabetical order	Forecast Magnitude Ranges & Dates (UTC)	Observed Maximum Magnitude in each region	Mag. Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date (UTC) & Location
Alaska USA Southern Region within ≈600 km of a new center at Lat 59.6 and Lon -148.9, about 185 km S of Anchorage.	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Dec 16 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 7th Dec)	M4.3	90%	20th December 2011 Lat 56.614 Lon -154.585 101 km SW of Old Harbor, Kodiak Island Region. AK (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Vancouver Is. and Seattle Regions CANADA/USA New zone within ≈525 km radius of Tofino, B.C. at Lat 49.159 and Lon -125.874	M2.8-M4.8 expected about Dec 13 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 7th Dec)	M4.0	95%	19th December 2011 Lat 51.151 Lon -130.014 189 km WNW of Port Hardy, BC, Canada (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
California - Oregon USA Border Region New zone Coast & Off Coast within ≈550 km of a center at Lat 41.29 Lon -125.95 160 km west of Orick, CA	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Dec 16 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 7th Dec)	M4.1	98%	20th December 2011 Lat 44.150 Lon -128.720 374 km W of Newport, Off the Coast of Oregon (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
California 1. New zone 'Northern and Central CA' (& Western Nevada) within ≈450 km radius of Redwood Valley, CA at Lat 39.265 and Lon -123.204. Includes events off the coast near Eureka, CA, in the Triple Junction Region. **see table footnote	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Dec 20 +/-3 days (revised 0028 hours 15th Dec)	M3.1	67%	23rd December 2011 Lat 39.412 Lon -120.124 10 km NE of Truckee, CA (USGS source) forecast 8 days ahead
California 2. Central, Southern, & Baja California Regions New zone Within ≈400 km of Beaumont, CA, at Lat 33.930 and Lon -116.978 **see table footnote	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Dec 17 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 7th Dec)	M3.5	83%	20th December 2011 Lat 34.010 Lon -117.588 61 km E of Los Angeles Civic Center, Greater Los Angeles Area (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
New Madrid Region Central USA New zone Within ≈550 km of a center at Springfield, Missouri, Lat 37.214 Lon -93.293 Extends to Central Oklahoma	M2.0-M4.0 expected about Dec 20 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 7th Dec)	M2.7	90%	21st December 2011 Lat 35.365 Lon -92.255 70 km N of Little Rock, Arkansas, USA (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead
Hawaii USA Within ≈500 km of a center at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on the Island of Hawaii	M2.2-M4.2 expected about Dec 20 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 7th Dec)	M3.7	86%	16th December 2011 Lat 19.329 Lon -155.348 18 km SW of Volcano, Island of Hawaii (USGS source) forecast 9 days ahead
Caribbean 1. Puerto Rico and East Dominican Republic Region New zone within ≈350 km of a center, in Caribbean at Lat 17.10 and Lon -68.50. This region, which overlaps the zone below, does not include the Virgin Islands.	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Dec 20 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 7th Dec)	M5.3	75%	17th December 2011 Lat 18.172 Lon -67.371 135 km WSW of SAN JUAN, PR, in Mona Passage (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead
Caribbean 2. Haiti & Dominican Republic,SE Cuba & Jamaica Region within ≈600 km of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, at Lat 18.54 & Lon -72.334	M2.8-M4.8 expected about Dec 16 +/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 7th Dec)	M5.3	72%	17th December 2011 Lat 18.172 Lon -67.371 135 km WSW of SAN JUAN, PR, in Mona Passage (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead
Bucharest Romania Region New zone, Europe within ≈250 km of Bucharest at Lat 44.44 & Lon 26.093. Includes part of Northern Bulgaria.	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Dec 20 +/-3 days (posted 0842 hours 7th Dec)	M3.3	82%	19th December 2011 Lat 45.72 Lon 26.42 59 km W of Focsani, Romania (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 12 days ahead
Chile 1. Northern Region within≈600 km of a center point 37 km NNE of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.34 Lon -70.29 (zone revised 3rd July 2011)	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Dec 20 +/-3 days (posted 0842 hours 7th Dec)	M4.9	98%	22nd December 2011 Lat -19.536 Lon -69.122 132 km NE of Iquique, Tarapaca, Chile (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
Chile 2. Central Region within ≈500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon -71.359	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Dec 20 +/-3 days (posted 0842 hours 7th Dec)	M4.9	100%	11th December 2011 Lat -36.162 Lon -71.523 81 km S of Talca, Maule, Chile (USGS source) forecast 4 days ahead
China* Within 650 km of Liangshan, Sichuan at Lat 27.880 Lon 102.264 *Forecasts for China will be for the largest quake expected in the FULL lunar month (FM + NM periods). More exact timing cannot be forecast because of inadequate amounts of data readily available from China	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Dec 28 +/-3 days (posted 2200 hours 7th Dec)	M4.9	98%	25th December 2011 Lat 31.223 Lon 103.720 65 km W of Deyang, Eastern Sichuan, China (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Colombia Region within ≈600 km of ARUSI, Colombia, Lat 5.583 Lon -77.484, on the coast Extends from Panama City region to Western Venezuela	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 15 +/-3 days (posted 2200 hours 7th Dec)	M5.5	91%	13th December 2011 Lat 4.752 Lon -82.596 407 km S of David, Panama (USGS source) forecast 6 days ahead
Fiji-Tonga Region Maximum Depth 200 km and within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Dec 20 +/-3 days (posted 2200 hours 7th Dec)	M4.6	94%	9th December 2011 Lat -23.42 Lon -177.77 322 km SSE of Ndoi Island (USGS Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 2 days ahead
Greece New zone within 300 km of a center point at Pyrgos, Greece (Lat 37.676 & Lon 21.422)	M3.1-M5.1 expected about Dec 20 +/-3 days (posted 2200 hours 7th Dec)	M4.5	91%	12th December 2011 Lat 38.97 Lon 24.36 120 km NE of Peristérion, in Aegean Sea (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 5 days ahead
Guatemala Coastal Region within ≈300 km of a center point at Lat 14.07 Lon -91.92 offshore Guatemala, extending NW to southern Chiapas, Mex., & SE to El Salvador	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Dec 17 +/-3 days (posted 2200 hours 7th Dec)	M4.7	92%	22nd December 2011 Lat 14.149 Lon -92.054 174 km WSW of GUATEMALA CITY, Offshore Guatemala (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
El Salvador -Costa Rica Region includes southeast Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica within ≈500 km of a center point at La Trinidad, Nicaragua (Lat 12.566 Lon -86.178) Zone revised 19th April.	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Dec 20 +/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 7th Dec)	M4.9	98%	15th December 2011 Lat 13.035 Lon -88.669 72 km SW of San Miguel, Offshore El Salvador (USGS source) forecast 8 days ahead
Indonesia 1. Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Dec 20 +/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 7th Dec)	M5.2	94%	16th December 2011 Lat 4.248 Lon 93.300 267 km WSW of Banda Aceh, Off West Coast of Northern Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 9 days ahead
Indonesia 2. Sumatra Southern Region within ≈350 km of Bengkulu Utara, Southern Sumatra, centered at Lat -2.67 and Lon 101.34 (revised region on 18th April, at 1205 hrs)	M5.0-M7.0 expected about Dec 20 +/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 7th Dec)	M4.7	78%	15th December 2011 Lat -4.99 Lon 102.91 150 km SSE of Bengkulu, Southern Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 8 days ahead
Indonesia 3. Sunda Strait Southern Sumatra to Java Region includes very southern Sumatra & Western Java, within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Dec 20 +/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 7th Dec)	M5.1	96%	19th December 2011 Lat -7.296 Lon 103.141 398 km SSE of Bengkulu, Southwest of Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
Italy Region within ≈500 km of a center in the Tyrrhenian Sea at Lat 40.28 Lon 11.88 (now excluding Alpine Northern Italy and Bosnia/ Montenegro Regions across the Adriatic Sea)	M2.6-M4.6 expected about Dec 15 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 8th Dec)	M3.5	97%	17th December 2011 Lat 39.37 Lon 16.18 142 km N of Messina, Southern Italy (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 9 days ahead
Japan 1. Hokkaido Region & Northernmost Honshu Region within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62 **see table footnote	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Dec 20 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 8th Dec)	M5.0	94%	20th December 2011 Lat 40.18 Lon 142.58 97 km SE of Hachinohe, Near the East Coast of Honshu (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 12 days ahead
Japan 2. Honshu - Northern Region within ≈500 km of the M9.0 epicenter off East Coast of Honshu at Lat 38.322 Lon 142.369 **see table footnote	M4.8-M6.8 expected about Dec 20 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 8th Dec)	M5.1	88%	15th December 2011 Lat 38.02 Lon 143.47 196 km E of Ishinomaki, Off the East Coast of Honshu, Japan (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 7 days ahead
Japan 3. Honshu - Southern Region within ≈500 km of center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040 **see table footnote	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 16 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 8th Dec)	M5.6	89%	15th December 2011 Lat 31.744 Lon 141.511 446 km SSE of Yokohama in the Izu Islands, Japan Region (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈550 km of a NEW CENTRE near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Tajikistan, 66 km W of Kashgar, Xinjiang, China at Lat 40.58 Lon 77.286	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 18 +/-3 days (posted 0135 hours 8th Dec)	M4.4	88%	10th December 2011 Lat 38.87 Lon 30.20 41 km E of Banaz, Western Turkey (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 2 days ahead
Mexico Southern Region within ≈575 km of Tlaxiaco, Oaxaca, Mexico, at Lat 17.280 Lon -97.671	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Dec 18 +/-3 days (posted 0350 hours 8th Dec)	M6.5	74%	11th December 2011 Lat 18.038 Lon -99.796 42 km SW of Iguala, Guerrero, Mexico (USGS source) forecast 3 days ahead
New Britain Region, PNG within 400 km of a center at KImbe, NB, at Lat -5.548 Lon 150.140	M4.6-M6.6 expected about Dec 18 +/-3 days (posted 0350 hours 8th Dec)	M5.0	89%	10th December 2011 Lat -6.19 Lon 147.82 109 km NE of Lae, Eastern New Guinea Region (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 2 days ahead
New Zealand "Northern Region" within ≈400 km of Taupo, North Island, New Zealand Lat -38.687 Lon 176.07, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island **see table footnote	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 18 +/-3 days (posted 0350 hours 8th Dec)	M3.7	74%	12th December 2011 Lat -38.28 Lon 175.89 10 km S of Tokoroa, Waikato Region, North Island, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 4 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within 500 km from Christchurch, South Island Lat -43.527, Lon 172.622 **see table footnote	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Dec 17 +/-3 days (posted 0350 hours 8th Dec)	M6.0	85%	23rd December 2011 Lat -43.53 Lon 172.74 10 km E of Christchurch, South Island, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 15 days ahead
New Zealand Lower South Island New zone within ≈450 km of Queenstown at Lat -45.030 and Lon 168.66 **see table footnote	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Dec 20 +/-3 days (posted 0350 hours 8th Dec)	M6.0	87%	23rd December 2011 Lat -43.53 Lon 172.74 10 km E of Christchurch, South Island, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 15 days ahead
Pakistan Islamabad Region within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 18 +/-3 days (posted 0445 hours 8th Dec)	M4.9	98%	12th December 2011 Lat 36.439 Lon 71.171 94 km SSE of Faizabad, Hindu Kush Region, Afghanistan (USGS source) forecast 4 days ahead
Peru Region Central & Southern within ≈600 km of an Angostura center at Lat -15.875 and Lon -74.096	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Dec 20 +/-3 days (posted 0445 hours 8th Dec)	M4.8	94%	19th December 2011 Lat -12.073 Lon -76.918 18 km E of LIMA, Near the Central Coast of Peru (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Philippines Region Philippines Region within ≈600 km of a center point at LABO, Lat 14.15 Lon 122.673	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Dec 18 +/-3 days (posted 0445 hours 8th Dec)	M5.3	98%	23rd December 2011 Lat 13.205 Lon 120.661 159 km SSW of MANILA, Mindoro, Philippines (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
Samoa/Tonga within ≈350 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Dec 16 +/-3 days (posted 0445 hours 8th Dec)	M5.3	92%	14th December 2011 Lat -15.368 Lon -174.704 120 km WNW of Hihifo, Tonga (USGS source) forecast 6 days ahead
Solomon Is'- Bougainville Region within ≈600 km of center at Lat -8.41 Lon 158.66	M4.9-M6.9 expected about Dec 18 +/-3 days (posted 0603 hours 8th Dec)	M5.2	88%	11th December 2011 Lat -6.88 Lon -155.66 550 km NW of HONIARA, Bougainville Region (USGS & Google Earth sources) forecast 3 days ahead
Spain and Portugal - Southern Regions Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco within 450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567	M3.1-M4.1 expected about Dec 20 +/-3 days (posted 0603 hours 8th Dec)	M3.6	100%	14th December 2011 Lat 35.08 Lon 126.06-5.84 39 km NW of Ouezzane, Strait of Gibraltar (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 6 days ahead
Taiwan Region New zone within 450 km of a center at Lat 23.50 and Lon 123.50	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Dec 14 +/-3 days (posted 0603 hours 8th Dec)	M4.9	89%	22nd December 2011 Lat 24.074 Lon 122.600 101 km E of Hualien, Taiwan Region (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead
Tibetan Plateau and Himalayan Region includes cities like Kathmandu, New Delhi, and Islamabad New zone within ≈900 km of a Tibetan center located at Lat 32.28 Lon 81.98	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Dec 16 +/-3 days (posted 0855 hours 8th Dec)	M4.8	98%	22nd December 2011 Lat 31.920 Lon 86.322 217 km E of Lumaringbo, Western Xizang (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead
Turkey within ≈425 km of a center at INSTANBUL, Turkey, at Lat 41.005 Lon 28.976 (region includes most of Western & Central Turkey, plus regions of Aegean and Black Seas)	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Dec 14 +/-3 days (posted 0855 hours 8th Dec)	M4.3	98%	10th December 2011 Lat 38.87 Lon 30.20 41 km E of Banaz, Western Turkey (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 2 days ahead
Vanuatu Region New zone within ≈350 km from a center at Lat -19.182 and Lon 168.270, 160 km S of PORT-VILA, Vanuatu. Includes Southeast Loyalty Islands Region	M4.4-M6.4 expected about Dec 13 +/-3 days (posted 0855 hours 8th Dec)	M4.6	85%	12th December 2011 Lat -16.43 Lon 168.03 146 km NNW of PORT-VILA, Vanuatu (USGS Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 4 days ahead

EMSC/CSEM http://www.emsc-csem.org/

Table 49a. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period

from November 25-December 9* 2011 (UTC)

REGIONS USA/Canadian regions listed first, by latitude, then other regions in alphabetical order	Forecast Magnitude Ranges & Dates (UTC)	Observed Maximum Magnitude in each region	Mag. Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date (UTC) & Location
Alaska USA Southern Region within ≈600 km of a new center at Lat 59.6 and Lon -148.9, about 185 km S of Anchorage.	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Dec 5 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M4.4	96%	3rd December 2011 Lat 61.979 Lon -150.990 109 km NW of Anchorage, Southern Alaska (USGS source) forecast 19 days ahead
Vancouver Is. and Seattle Regions CANADA/USA within ≈525 km radius of Tofino, B.C. at Lat 49.159 and Lon -125.874	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Dec 4 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M3.8	84%	26th November 2011 Lat 48.94 Lon -128.59 196 km W of Tofino, BC (Natural Resources/ Earthquakes Canada) forecast 12 days ahead
California - Oregon USA Border Region Coast & Off Coast within ≈550 km of a center at Lat 41.29 Lon -125.95 160 km west of Orick, CA	M3.1-M5.1 expected about Nov 28 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M4.0	98%	8th December 2011 Lat 40.466 Lon -125.727 123 km W of Petrolia, Off the Coast of Northern CA (USGS source) forecast 24 days ahead
California 1. 'Northern and Central CA' (& Western Nevada) within ≈450 km radius of Redwood Valley, CA at Lat 39.265 and Lon -123.204. Includes events off the coast near Eureka, CA, in the Triple Junction Region. **see table footnote	M2.7-M4.7 expected about Nov 27 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M4.1	90%	8th December 2011 Lat 40.466 Lon -125.727 123 km W of Petrolia, Off the Coast of Northern CA (USGS source) forecast 24 days ahead
California 2. Central, Southern, & Baja California Regions Within ≈400 km of Beaumont, CA, at Lat 33.930 and Lon -116.978 **see table footnote	M2.9-M4.9 expected about Dec 1 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M3.2	82%	2nd December 2011 Lat 32.095 Lon-115.185 179 km ESE of Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
New Madrid Region Central USA Within ≈550 km of a center at Springfield, Missouri, Lat 37.214 Lon -93.293 Extends to Central Oklahoma	M2.7-M4.7 expected about Dec 6 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M3.3	89%	25th November 2011 Lat 35.45 Lon -96.84 61 km E of OKLAHOMA CITY, Oklahoma (USGS - Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 11 days ahead
Hawaii USA Within 500 km of a center at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on the Island of Hawaii	M2.3-M4.3 expected about Dec 4 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M3.4	97%	7th December 2011 Lat 19.324 Lon -155.144 17 km SE of Volcano, HI (USGS source) forecast 23 days ahead
Caribbean 1. Puerto Rico and East Dominican Republic Region New zone within ≈350 km of a center, in Caribbean at Lat 17.10 and Lon -68.50. This region, which overlaps the zone below, does not include the Virgin Islands.	M2.8-M4.8 expected about Dec 5+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M4.9	78%	28th November 2011 Lat 19.099 Lon -66.784 97 km NW of SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead
Caribbean 2. Haiti & Dominican Republic,SE Cuba & Jamaica Region within ≈600 km of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, at Lat 18.54 & Lon -72.334	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Dec 6 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M3.6	82%	6th December 2011 Lat 18.281 Lon -68.358 67 km ESEof La Romana, La Romana, Dominican Republic. in Mona Passage (USGS source) forecast 22 days ahead
Bucharest Romania Region within ≈250 km of Bucharest at Lat 44.44 & Lon 26.093. Includes part of Northern Bulgaria.	M2.7-M4.7 expected about Nov 28 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M3.8	97%	3rd December 2011 Lat 45.60 Lon 26.41 59 km NW of Buzau, Romania (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 19 days ahead
Chile 1. Northern Region within≈600 km of a center point 37 km NNE of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.34 Lon -70.29 (zone revised 3rd July 2011)	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Dec 3 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M6.1	85%	7th December 2011 Lat -27.884 Lon -70.932 79 km NNW of Vallenar, Atacama, Chile (USGS source) forecast 23 days ahead
Chile 2. Central Region within 500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon -71.359	M4.8-M6.8 expected about Dec 6 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M5.0	86%	25th November 2011 Lat -37.91 Lon -75.13 221 km S of Concepcion, Off the Coast of Bio-Bio, Chile (USGS -Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 11 days ahead
China* Within 650 km of Liangshan, Sichuan at Lat 27.880 Lon 102.264 *Forecasts for China will be for the largest quake expected in the FULL lunar month (FM + NM periods). More exact timing cannot be forecast because of inadequate amounts of data readily available from China	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Nov 30 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M5.1	96%	28th November 2011 Lat 25.173 Lon 97.582 266 km WSW of Dali, Yunnan, Myanmar-China Border Region (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead
Colombia Region within 600 km of ARUSI, Colombia, Lat 5.583 Lon -77.484, on the coast Extends from Panama City region to Western Venezuela	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Nov 30 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	NIL
Fiji-Tonga Region Maximum Depth 200 km and within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Dec 6 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M5.3	92%	7th December 2011 Lat -20.306 Lon -174.268 132 km NE of NUKU'ALOFA Tonga (USGS source) forecast 23 days ahead
Greece New zone within 300 km of a center point at Pyrgos, Greece (Lat 37.676 & Lon 21.422)	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Dec 4 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M4.1	84%	29th November 2011 Lat 37.58 Lon 24.00 29 km SE of Kalithéa, Southern Greece (EMSC/CSEM source)* Forecast 15 days ahead
Guatemala Coastal Region within ≈300 km of a center point at Lat 14.07 Lon -91.92 offshore Guatemala, extending NW to southern Chiapas, Mex., & SE to El Salvador.	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Dec 6 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M4.7	91%	2nd December 2011 Lat 15.928 Lon -91.290 166 km NNW of GUATEMALA, Guatemala (USGS source) Forecast 18 days ahead
El Salvador -Costa Rica Region includes southeast Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica within ≈500 km of a center point at La Trinidad, Nicaragua (Lat 12.566 Lon -86.178) Zone revised 19th April.	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Dec 6 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M4.8	92%	8th December 2011 Lat 13.350 Lon -89.972 92 km WSW of SAN SALVADOR, El Salvador (USGS source) Forecast 24 days ahead
Indonesia 1. Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M4.6-M6.6 expected about Nov 28 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M5.4	96%	27th November 2011 Lat 0.157 Lon 97.870 192 km SSW of Sibolga, Nias Region, Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Indonesia 2. Sumatra Southern Region within ≈350 km of Bengkulu Utara, Southern Sumatra, centered at Lat -2.67 and Lon 101.34 (revised region on 18th April, at 1205 hrs)	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 1 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M5.3	94%	29th November 2011 Lat -4.417 Lon 102.081 71 km SSW of Bengkulu, Southern Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
Indonesia 3. Sunda Strait Southern Sumatra to Java Region includes very southern Sumatra & Western Java, within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Dec 1 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M4.9	98%	2nd December 2011 Lat -8.034 Lon 104.222 353 km SW of JAKARTA, SW of Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Italy Region within ≈500 km of a center in the Tyrrhenian Sea at Lat 40.28 Lon 11.88 (now excluding Alpine Northern Italy and Bosnia/ Montenegro Regions across the Adriatic Sea)	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Dec 4 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M3.3	94%	1st December 2011 Lat 39.91 Lon 15.90 129 km SE of Salerno, Italy (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 17 days ahead
Japan 1. Hokkaido Region & Northernmost Honshu Region within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62 **see table footnote	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Dec 6 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M4.9	98%	1st December 2011 Lat 44.842 Lon 145.868 239 km NNE of Kushiro, Hokkaido, Japan (USGS source) forecast 17 days ahead
Japan 2. Honshu - Northern Region within ≈500 km of the M9.0 epicenter off East Coast of Honshu at Lat 38.322 Lon 142.369 **see table footnote	M4.4-M6.4 expected about Nov 29 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M5.3	98%	2nd December 2011 Lat 35.267 Lon 140.179 60 km SE of TOKYO, Near the East Coast of Honshu (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Japan 3. Honshu - Southern Region within ≈500 km of center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040 **see table footnote	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Dec 6 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M5.3	96%	2nd December 2011 Lat 35.267 Lon 140.179 60 km SE of TOKYO, Near the East Coast of Honshu (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈550 km of a NEW CENTRE near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Tajikistan, 66 km W of Kashgar, Xinjiang, China at Lat 40.58 Lon 77.286	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Nov 29 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M5.3	98%	1st December 2011 Lat 38.320Lon 76.893 299 km ESE of Karakul, Tajikistan, in Southern Xinjiang, China (USGS source) forecast 17 days ahead
Mexico Southern Region within ≈575 km of Tlaxiaco, Oaxaca, Mexico, at Lat 17.280 Lon -97.671	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Dec 6 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M5.0	96%	7th December 2011 Lat 17.663 Lon -93.980 71 km SE of Coatzacoalcos, Veracruz, Mexico (USGS source) forecast 23 days ahead
New Britain Region, PNG within 400 km of a center at KImbe, NB, at Lat -5.548 Lon 150.140	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Dec 6 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M6.1	85%	28th November 2011 Lat -5.55 Lon 153.70 142 km SSE of Taron, New Ireland Region (USGS Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 14 days ahead
New Zealand "Northern Region" within ≈400 km of Taupo, North Island, New Zealand Lat -38.687 Lon 176.07, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island **see table footnote	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Nov 28 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M5.7NZ M5.3 USGS	77%	3rd December 2011 Lat -41.35 Lon 174 .29 40 km W of Wellington, and 30 km E of Picton, in Marlborough Region (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 19 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within 500 km from Christchurch, South Island Lat -43.527, Lon 172.622 **see table footnote	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Dec 2 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M5.7NZ M5.3 USGS	77%	3rd December 2011 Lat -41.35 Lon 174 .29 40 km W of Wellington, and 30 km E of Picton, in Marlborough Region (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 19 days ahead
New Zealand Lower South Island within ≈450 km of Queenstown at Lat -45.030 and Lon 168.66 **see table footnote	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Dec 2 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M4.3	88%	8th December 2011 Lat -45.38 Lon 167 .09 50 km W of Te Anau, Fiordland, South Island (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 24 days ahead
Pakistan Islamabad Region within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Dec 6 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M4.7	96%	5th December 2011 Lat 37.52 Lon 71.82 277 km E of Qunduz, Tajikistan (USGS source) forecast 21 days ahead
Peru Region Central & Southern New zone within ≈600 km of an Angostura center at Lat -15.875 and Lon -74.096	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Nov 28 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M5.1	98%	27th November 2011 Lat -14.29 Lon -75.70 287 km SSE of LIMA, Near the Coast of Central Peru (USGS - Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 13 days ahead
Philippines Region New zone within ≈750 km of Catbalogan City at Lat 11.786 Lon 124.880 -excludes Babuyan Channel at northern tip of Phillippines	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Dec 6 +/-3 days (posted 0050 hours 17th Nov)	M6.0	87%	30th November 2011 Lat 15.467 Lon 119 .031 230 km WNW of MANILA, Luzon, Philippines (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Samoa/Tonga within ≈350 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	M4.6-M6.6 expected about Dec 6 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M5.0	89%	6th December 2011 Lat -72.221 Lon -173.719 140 km S of Hihifo, Tonga (USGS source) forecast 22 days ahead
Solomon Is'- Bougainville Region within ≈600 km of center at Lat -8.41 Lon 158.66	M5.2-M7.2 expected about Nov 30 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M6.1	98%	28th November 2011 Lat -5.55 Lon 153.70 142 km SSE of Taron, New Ireland Region (USGS Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 14 days ahead
Spain and Portugal - Southern Regions Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco within 450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Nov 28 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M3.5	100%	26th November 2011 Lat 42.30 Lon -8.43 25 km E of Vigo, Spain (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 12 days ahead
Taiwan Region New zone within 450 km of a center at Lat 23.50 and Lon 123.50	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Nov 29 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M4.8	96%	2nd December 2011 Lat 23.135 Lon 121.319 46 km NE of Taitung, Taiwan (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Tibetan Plateau and Himalayan Region includes cities like Kathmandu, New Delhi, and Islamabad*** within ≈900 km of a Tibetan center located at Lat 32.28 Lon 81.98	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Nov 28 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M5.3	90%	1st December 2011 Lat 38.320Lon 76.893 299 km ESE of Karakul, Tajikistan, in Southern Xinjiang, China (USGS source) forecast 17 days ahead
Turkey within ≈425 km of a center at INSTANBUL, Turkey, at Lat 41.005 Lon 28.976 (region includes most of Western & Central Turkey, plus regions of Aegean and Black Seas)	M2.9-M4.9 expected about Nov 30 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M4.9	80%	5th December 2011 Lat 38.85 Lon 26.41 79 km NW of Izmir, Near the Coast of Western Turkey (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 21 days ahead
Vanuatu Region within ≈350 km from a center at Lat -19.182 and Lon 168.270, 160 km S of PORT-VILA, Vanuatu. Includes Southeast Loyalty Islands Region	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Dec 3 +/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 14th Nov)	M4.7	90%	30th November 2011 Lat -15.977 Lon 168.137 194 km N of PORT-VILA, Vanuatu (USGS source) forecast 16 days ahead

EMSC/CSEM http://www.emsc-csem.org/

Table 48b. Regional forecasts for Full Moon Period

from November 10-24* 2011 (UTC)

REGIONS USA/Canadian regions listed first, by latitude, then other regions in alphabetical order	Forecast Magnitude Ranges & Dates (UTC)	Observed Maximum Magnitude in each region	Mag. Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date (UTC) & Location
Alaska USA Southern Region within ≈600 km of a new center at Lat 59.6 and Lon -148.9, about 185 km S of Anchorage.	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Nov 21+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M4.5	94%	16th November 2011 Lat 57.70 Lon -153.82 451 km SSW of Anchorage, Kodiak Island Region, Alaska (USGS/NEIC-Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 19 days ahead
Vancouver Is. and Seattle Regions CANADA/USA within ≈525 km radius of Tofino, B.C. at Lat 49.159 and Lon -125.874	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Nov 13+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M4.2	100%	23rd November 2011 Lat 50.45 Lon -130.13 194 km W of Pt Hardy, Vancouver Island, Canada Region (USGS -Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 261 days ahead
California - Oregon USA Border Region New zone Coast & Off Coast within ≈550 km of a center at Lat 41.29 Lon -125.95 160 km west of Orick, CA	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Nov 13+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M3.2	76%	17th November 2011 Lat 40.427 Lon -125.212 97 km WSW of Eureka, Offshore Northern CA (USGS source) forecast 20 days ahead
California 1. Northern and Central CA' (& Western Nevada) within ≈450 km radius of Redwood Valley, CA at Lat 39.265 and Lon -123.204. Includes events off the coast near Eureka, CA, in the Triple Junction Region. **see table footnote	M2.8-M4.8 expected about Nov 19+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M3.7	97%	21st November 2011 Lat 38.54 Lon -119.52 172 km E of Sacamento, Central California (USGS -Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 24 days ahead
California 2. Central, Southern, & Baja California Regions Within ≈400 km of Beaumont, CA, at Lat 33.930 and Lon -116.978 **see table footnote	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Nov 13+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M3.9	98%	19th November 2011 Lat 33.245 Lon -116.271 97 km ENE of San Diego, Southern California (USGS source) forecast 21 days ahead
New Madrid Region Central USA Within ≈550 km of a center at Springfield, Missouri, Lat 37.214 Lon -93.293 Extends to Central Oklahoma	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Nov 19+/-3 days (revised 2236 hours 8th Nov)	M3.4	81%	24th November 2011 Lat 35.56 Lon -96.79 67 km E of OKLAHOMA CITY, Oklahoma, USA (USGS -Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 16 days ahead
Hawaii USA Within 500 km of a center at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on the Island of Hawaii	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Nov 19+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M4.0	88%	24th November 2011 Lat 19.03 Lon -155.66 98 km SW of Hilo, HI (USGS source) forecast 27 days ahead
Caribbean 1. Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands Region within ≈225 km of Fajardo, Puerto Rico, at Lat 18.326 & Lon -65.652,	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Nov 18+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M4.9	71%	12th November 2011 Lat 19.075 Lon -64.376 74 km NNE of ROAD TOWN Virgin Islands Region (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
Caribbean 2. Haiti & Dominican Republic,SE Cuba & Jamaica Region within ≈600 km of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, at Lat 18.54 & Lon -72.334	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Nov 17+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M4.4	91%	14h November 2011 Lat 18.39 Lon -72.91 63 km WSW of PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti (USGS -Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 17 days ahead
Bucharest Romania Region within ≈250 km of Bucharest at Lat 44.44 & Lon 26.093. Includes part of Northern Bulgaria.	M2.7-M4.7 expected about Nov 21+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M3.8	97%	22nd November 2011 Lat 45.73 Lon 26.74 51 km NW of Buzau, Romania (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 25 days ahead
Chile 1. Northern Region within≈600 km of a center point 37 km NNE of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.34 Lon -70.29 (zone revised 3rd July 2011)	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Nov 19+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M5.4	93%	23rd November 2011 Lat -22.82 Lon -68.0 103 km ESE of Calama, Antofagsta, Chile (USGS source) forecast 26 days ahead
Chile 2. Central Region within 500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon -71.359	M4.4-M6.4 expected about Nov 17+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M5.3	98%	22nd November 2011 Lat -34.76 Lon -71.80 180 km SW of SANTIAGO, Libertador O'Higgins, Chile (USGS - Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 25 days ahead
China* Within 650 km of Liangshan, Sichuan at Lat 27.880 Lon 102.264 *Forecasts for China will be for the largest quake expected in the FULL lunar month (FM + NM periods). More exact timing cannot be forecast because of inadequate amounts of data readily available from China	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Nov 30+/-3 days (posted 0405 hours 12th Nov)	M5.1	96%	28th November 2011 Lat 25.173 Lon 97.582 266 km WSW of Dali, Yunnan, Myanmar-China Border Region (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead
Colombia Region within 600 km of ARUSI, Colombia, Lat 5.583 Lon -77.484, on the coast Extends from Panama City region to Western Venezuela	No forecast was made	(M4.7)	N/A	15th November 2011 Lat 5.560 Lon -82.377 317 km S of David, Panama (USGS source)
Fiji-Tonga Region Maximum Depth 200 km and within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.4-M6.4 expected about Nov 20+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M5.3	98%	20th November 2011 Lat -23.004 Lon -175.426 228 km S of NUKU'ALOFA, Tonga (USGS source) forecast 23 days ahead
Greece New zone within 300 km of a center point at Pyrgos, Greece (Lat 37.676 & Lon 21.422)	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Nov 21+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M4.6	96%	10th November 2011 Lat 38.42 Lon 21.82 21 km N iof Pátrai, Greece (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 13 days ahead
Guatemala Coastal Region within ≈300 km of a center point at Lat 14.07 Lon -91.92 offshore Guatemala, extending NW to southern Chiapas, Mex., & SE to El Salvador.	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Nov 15+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M5.8	78%	17th November 2011 Lat 14.03 Lon -91.75 147 km WSW of GUATEMALA, Offshore Guatemala (USGS - Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 20 days ahead
El Salvador -Costa Rica Region includes southeast Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica within ≈500 km of a center point at La Trinidad, Nicaragua (Lat 12.566 Lon -86.178) Zone revised 19th April.	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Nov 13+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M5.1	96%	24th November 2011 Lat 13.28 Lon -87.90 35 km SE of San Miguel, El Salvador (USGS - Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 27 days ahead
Indonesia 1. Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Nov 15+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M4.9	92%	21st November 2011 Lat 1.70 Lon 97.03 194 km W of Sibolga, Nias Region, Indonesia (USGS source) forecast 24 days ahead
Indonesia 2. Sumatra Southern Region within ≈350 km of Bengkulu Utara, Southern Sumatra, centered at Lat -2.67 and Lon 101.34 (revised region on 18th April, at 1205 hrs)	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Nov 19+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M5.2	94%	22nd November 2011 Lat -2.27 Lon 99.44 178 km SW of Padang, Kep. Mentawai Region, Indonesia (USGS source) forecast 25 days ahead
Indonesia 3. Sunda Strait Southern Sumatra to Java Region includes very southern Sumatra & Western Java, within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Nov 21+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M4.6	93%	20th November 2011 Lat -6.77 Lon 102.04 331 km S of Bengkulu, Southwest of Sumatra (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 23 days ahead
Italy Region within ≈500 km of a center in the Tyrrhenian Sea at Lat 40.28 Lon 11.88 (now excluding Alpine Northern Italy and Bosnia/ Montenegro Regions across the Adriatic Sea)	M2.6-M4.6 expected about Nov 19+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M4.2	86%	15th November 2011 Lat 38.25 Lon 14.70 75 KM W of Messina. Sicily (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 18 days ahead
Japan 1. Hokkaido Region & Northernmost Honshu Region within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62 **see table footnote	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Nov 18+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M6.2	85%	24th November 2011 Lat 41.87 Lon 142.71 165 km E of Hakodate, Hokkaido, Japan (USGS Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 27 days ahead
Japan 2. Honshu - Northern Region within ≈500 km of the M9.0 epicenter off East Coast of Honshu at Lat 38.322 Lon 142.369 **see table footnote	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Nov 18+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M6.1	87%	23rd November 2011 Lat 37.37 Lon 141.38 238 km NE of TOKYO, Near the East Coast of Honshu, Japan (USGS -Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 26 days ahead
Japan 3. Honshu - Southern Region within ≈500 km of center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040 **see table footnote	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Nov 21+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M5.3	98%	16th November 2011 Lat 39.724 Lon 143.310 217 km SE of Yokohama Off the the East Coast of Honshu, Japan (USGS source) forecast 19 days ahead
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈550 km of a NEW CENTRE near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Tajikistan, 66 km W of Kashgar, Xinjiang, China at Lat 40.58 Lon 77.286	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Nov 18+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M4.7	89%	18th November 2011 Lat 37.371 Lon 72.138 53 km ESE of Khorugh, Tajikistan (USGS source) forecast 21 days ahead
Mexico Southern Region within ≈575 km of Tlaxiaco, Oaxaca, Mexico, at Lat 17.280 Lon -97.671	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Nov 18+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M4.5	96%	18th November 2011 Lat 17.329 Lon -94.238 91 km SSE of Coatzacoalcos, Veracruz, Mexico (USGS source) forecast 21 days ahead
New Britain Region, PNG within 400 km of a center at KImbe, NB, at Lat -5.548 Lon 150.140	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Nov 14+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M5.0	94%	18th November 2011 Lat -6.33 Lon 149.30 30 km WSW of Kandrian, New Britain Region (USGS - Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 21 days ahead
New Zealand "Northern Region" within ≈400 km of Taupo, North Island, New Zealand Lat -38.687 Lon 176.07, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island **see table footnote	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Nov 21+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M6.1	72%	18th November 2011 Lat -37.57 Lon 179.91 220 km NE of Gisborne, NE of New Zealand (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 21 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within 500 km from Christchurch, South Island Lat -43.527, Lon 172.622 **see table footnote	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Nov 21+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M3.9	91%	17th November 2011 Lat -43.59 Lon 172.78 10 km SE of Christchurch, South Island, New Zealand (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 20 days ahead
New Zealand Lower South Island within ≈450 km of Queenstown at Lat -45.030 and Lon 168.66 **see table footnote	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Nov 16+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M4.5	96%	23rd November 2011 Lat -45.57 Lon 166.62 90 km W of Te Anau, Fiordland, South Island, New Zealand (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 26 days ahead
Pakistan Islamabad Region within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Nov 18+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M4.7	94%	18th November 2011 Lat 37.371 Lon 72.138 53 km ESE of Khorugh, Tajikistan (USGS source) forecast 21 days ahead
Peru Region Central & Southern New zone within ≈600 km of an Angostura center at Lat -15.875 and Lon -74.096	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Nov 21+/-3 days (revised 0525 hours 30th Oct)	M4.9	92%	22nd November 2011 Lat -14.09 Lon -72.59 92 km SW of Cusco, Central Peru (USGS - Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 23 days ahead
Philippines Region New zone within ≈750 km of Catbalogan City at Lat 11.786 Lon 124.880 -excludes Babuyan Channel at northern tip of Phillippines	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Nov 18+/-3 days (revised 0018 hours 17th Nov)	M4.7	90%	18th November 2011 Lat 5.92 Lon 126.64 155 km E of Dadiangas, Mindanao, Philippines (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast one day ahead
Samoa/Tonga within ≈350 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	No forecast was made	(M5.6)	N/A	11th November 2011 Lat -17.735 Lon -172.990 204 km SSE of Hihifo, Tonga Region (USGS source)
Solomon Is'- Bougainville Region within ≈600 km of center at Lat -8.41 Lon 158.66	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Nov 13+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M4.9	94%	18th November 2011 Lat -7.024 Lon 155.384 90 km SSW of Arawa, Bougainville, PNG (USGS source) forecast 21 days ahead
Spain and Portugal - Southern Regions Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco within 450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Nov 13+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M3.1	88%	22nd November 2011 Lat 38.41 Lon -9.71 55 km SW of Queluz, Portugal (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 25 days ahead
Taiwan Region within 225 km of M7.7 center (1999) at Lat 23.77 and Lon 120.98	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Nov 14+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M4.9	96%	12th November 2011 Lat 23.98 Lon 122.27 69 km E of Hualien, Taiwan Region (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 15 days ahead
Tibetan Plateau and Himalayan Region includes cities like Kathmandu, New Delhi, and Islamabad*** within ≈900 km of a Tibetan center located at Lat 32.28 Lon 81.98	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Nov 21+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M4.3	84%	11th November 2011 Lat 35.75 Lon 73.16 130 km NE of Mingaora, Northwestern Kashmir (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 14 days ahead
Turkey within ≈425 km of a center at INSTANBUL, Turkey, at Lat 41.005 Lon 28.976 (region includes most of Western & Central Turkey, plus regions of Aegean and Black Seas)	M2.8-M4.8 expected about Nov 13+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M3.8	100%	16th November 2011 Lat 40.22 Lon 25.33 193 km SW of Edirne, Aegean Sea (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 19 days ahead
Vanuatu Region New zone within ≈350 km from a center at Lat -19.182 and Lon 168.270, 160 km S of PORT-VILA, Vanuatu. Includes Southeast Loyalty Islands Region	M4.6-M6.6 expected about Nov 13+/-3 days (posted 0930 hours 28th Oct)	M5.2	93%	11th November 2011 Lat -21.540 Lon 169.786 138 km SSE of Tadine, Loyalty Islands, New Caledonia (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead

EMSC/CSEM http://www.emsc-csem.org/

Table 48a. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period

from October 26-November 9* 2011 (UTC)

REGIONS USA/Canadian regions listed first, by latitude, then other regions in alphabetical order	Forecast Magnitude Ranges & Dates (UTC)	Observed Maximum Magnitude in each region	Mag. Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date (UTC) & Location
Alaska USA Southern Region within ≈600 km of a new center at Lat 59.6 and Lon -148.9, about 185 km S of Anchorage.	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Oct 28+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M4.4	98%	5th November 2011 Lat 59.490 Lon -153.433 277 km SW of Anchorage, Southern Alaska (USGS source) forecast 17 days ahead
Vancouver Is. and Seattle Regions CANADA/USA New zone within ≈525 km radius of Tofino, B.C. at Lat 49.159 and Lon -125.874	M2.6-M4.6 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M3.8	95%	8th November 2011 Lat 50.87 Lon -130.62 224 km WSW of Bella Bella, British Columbia (Natural Resources/ Earthquakes Canada) forecast 20 days ahead
California - Oregon USA Border Region New zone Coast & Off Coast within ≈550 km of a center at Lat 41.29 Lon -125.95 160 km west of Orick, CA	M3.1-M5.1 expected about Oct 29+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M4.7	87%	27th October 2011 Lat 39.61 Lon -120.47 144 km NE of Sacramento Northern California (USGS - Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 8 days ahead
California 1. New zone 'Northern and Central CA' (& Western Nevada) within ≈450 km radius of Redwood Valley, CA at Lat 39.265 and Lon -123.204. Includes events off the coast near Eureka, CA, in the Triple Junction Region. **see table footnote	M2.7-M4.7 expected about Nov 3+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M4.7	79%	27th October 2011 Lat 39.61 Lon -120.47 144 km NE of Sacramento Northern California (USGS - Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 8 days ahead
California 2. Central, Southern, & Baja California Regions New zone Within ≈400 km of Beaumont, CA, at Lat 33.930 and Lon -116.978 **see table footnote	M2.8-M4.8 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M4.1	93%	1st November 2011 Lat 35.683 Lon -117.619 190 km NNE of Los Angeles Civic Center, Southern California (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
New Madrid Region Central USA New zone Within ≈550 km of a center at Springfield, Missouri, Lat 37.214 Lon -93.293 Extends to Central Oklahoma	M2.0-M4.0 expected about Nov 4+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M5.6*	54%	6th November 2011 Lat 35.599 Lon -96.752 71 km ENE of OKLAHOMA CITY, Oklahoma (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead *Much has been learned from this event as always more is learned from failures than successes.
Hawaii USA Within 500 km of a center at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on the Island of Hawaii	M2.4-M4.4 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M3.9	87%	7th November 2011 Lat 19.432 Lon -154.827 41 km SE of Hilo, Hawaii Region (USGS source) forecast 19 days ahead
Caribbean 1. Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands Region within ≈225 km of Fajardo, Puerto Rico, at Lat 18.326 & Lon -65.652,	M2.6-M4.6 expected about Oct 29+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M3.6	100%	7th November 2011 Lat 19.039 Lon -64.342 72 km NNE of ROAD TOWN, Virgin Islands Region (USGS source) forecast 19 days ahead
Caribbean 2. Haiti & Dominican Republic,SE Cuba & Jamaica Region within ≈600 km of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, at Lat 18.54 & Lon -72.334	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Nov 1st+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M3.8	86%	8th November 2011 Lat 18.905 Lon -68.841 125 km ENE of SANTO DOMINGO, Dominican Republic (USGS source) forecast 20 days ahead
Bucharest Romania Region New zone, Europe within ≈250 km of Bucharest at Lat 44.44 & Lon 26.093. Includes part of Northern Bulgaria.	M2.8-M4.8 expected about Nov 3+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M3.2	84%	29th October 2011 Lat 45.67 Lon 26.49 54 km W of Focsani, Romania (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead
Chile 1. Northern Region within≈600 km of a center point 37 km NNE of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.34 Lon -70.29 (zone revised 3rd July 2011)	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Nov 5+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M5.7	84%	5th November 2011 Lat -23.529 Lon -70.400 22 km NNE of Antofagasta, Antofagasta, Chile (USGS source) forecast 17 days ahead
Chile 2. Central Region within 500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon -71.359	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Oct 29+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M5.3	96%	8th November 2011 Lat -34.138 Lon -72.062 150 km WSW of SANTIAGO, Offshore Libertador O'Higgins, Chile (USGS source) forecast 20 days ahead
China* Within 650 km of Liangshan, Sichuan at Lat 27.880 Lon 102.264 *Forecasts for China will be for the largest quake expected in the FULL lunar month (FM + NM periods). More exact timing cannot be forecast because of inadequate amounts of data readily available from China	No forecast was made	(M5.0)	N/A	31st October 2011 Lat 32.54 Lon 105.31 49 km WNW Guangyan, Sichuan-Gansu Border Region, China (USGS Preliminary Earthquake Report)
Colombia Region within 600 km of ARUSI, Colombia, Lat 5.583 Lon -77.484, on the coast Extends from Panama City region to Western Venezuela	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M4.3	93%	29th October 2011 Lat 0.133Lon -77.400 120 km S of Pasto, Colombia/Ecuador Border Region (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Nov 5+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M6.0	88%	27th October 2011 Lat -17.914 Lon -179.424 230 km E of Suva, Fiji (USGS source) forecast 8 days ahead
Greece New zone within 300 km of a center point at ITEA, Greece (Lat 38.435 & Lon 22.422)	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M4.3	100%	1st November 2011 Lat 35.822 Lon 22.594 260 km SSW of ATHENS, Central Mediterranean Sea (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Guatemala Coastal Region within ≈300 km of a center point at Lat 14.07 Lon -91.92 offshore Guatemala, extending NW to southern Chiapas, Mex., & SE to El Salvador.	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M4.4	98%	30th October 2011 Lat 13.805 Lon -91.242 118 km SW of GUATEMALA, Offshore Guatemala (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
El Salvador -Costa Rica Region includes southeast Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica within ≈500 km of a center point at La Trinidad, Nicaragua (Lat 12.566 Lon -86.178) Zone revised 19th April.	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M5.9	88%	7th November 2011 Lat 11.629 Lon -85.802 77 km SE of MANAGUA< Nicaragua (USGS source) forecast 19 days ahead
Indonesia 1. Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Nov 5+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M4.9	92%	28th October 2011 Lat 5.039 Lon 94.167 140 km WSW of Banda Aceh, Northern Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 9 days ahead
Indonesia 2. Sumatra Southern Region within ≈350 km of Bengkulu Utara, Southern Sumatra, centered at Lat -2.67 and Lon 101.34 (revised region on 18th April, at 1205 hrs)	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M5.6	95%	30th October 2011 Lat -3.111 Lon 101.409 117 WNW of Bengkulu, Southern Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Indonesia 3. Sunda Strait Southern Sumatra to Java Region includes very southern Sumatra & Western Java, within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M5.3	90%	6th November 2011 Lat -6.057 Lon 106.349 54 km WSW of JAKARTA, Java (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Italy Region within ≈500 km of a center in the Tyrrhenian Sea at Lat 40.28 Lon 11.88 (now excluding Alpine Northern Italy and Bosnia/ Montenegro Regions across the Adriatic Sea)	M3.1-M5.1 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M4.1	100%	4th November 2011 Lat 39.90 Lon 14.81 87 km S of Salerno, in Tyrrhenian Sea (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 16 days ahead
Japan 1. Hokkaido Region & Northernmost Honshu Region within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62 **see table footnote	M4.6-M6.6 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M5.1	91%	7th Novemberr 2011 Lat 45.938 Lon 149.136 501 km NE of Kushiro, Hokkaido, in Kuril Islands (USGS source) forecast 19 days ahead
Japan 2. Honshu - Northern Region within ≈500 km of the M9.0 epicenter off East Coast of Honshu at Lat 38.322 Lon 142.369 **see table footnote	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M5.2	98%	30th October 2011 Lat 37.682 Lon 144.531 326 km E of Sendai, Off the East Coast of Honshu, Japan (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Japan 3. Honshu - Southern Region within ≈500 km of center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040 **see table footnote	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Nov 3+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M5.2	94%	8th November 2011 Lat 31.395 Lon 142.226 510 km SSE of Yokohama, Honshu, in Izu Islands Region (USGS source) forecast 20 days ahead
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) New zone within ≈550 km of a NEW CENTRE near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Tajikistan, 66 km W of Kashgar, Xinjiang, China at Lat 40.58 Lon 77.286	M4.7-M6.7 expected about Oct 29+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M6.1	93%	1st November 2011 Lat 43.77 Lon 82.46 90 km E of Yining, Northern Xinjiang, China (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 13 days ahead
Mexico Southern Region within ≈575 km of Tlaxiaco, Oaxaca, Mexico, at Lat 17.280 Lon -97.671	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Oct 31+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M4.2	84%	8th November 2011 Lat 18.828 Lon -103.896 49 km SSW of Colima, Colima, Mexico (USGS source) forecast 20 days ahead
New Britain Region, PNG within 400 km of a center at KImbe, NB, at Lat -5.548 Lon 150.140	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M5.2	98%	7th November 2011 Lat -3.709 Lon 149.705 209 km NNW of Kimbe, New Britain, in Bismarck Sea (USGS source) forecast 19 days ahead
New Zealand "Northern Region" within ≈400 km of Taupo, North Island, New Zealand Lat -38.687 Lon 176.07, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island **see table footnote	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Oct 30+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M5.2	94%	26th October 2011 Lat -38.93 Lon 175.65 50 km SW of Taupo, North Island, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 7 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within 500 km from Christchurch, South Island Lat -43.527, Lon 172.622 **see table footnote	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M4.9	98%	2nd November 2011 Lat -41.63 Lon 174.28 60 km SW of Wellington (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 14 days ahead
New Zealand Lower South Island New zone within ≈450 km of Queenstown at Lat -45.030 and Lon 168.66 **see table footnote	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M4.2	86%	8th November 2011 Lat -43.29 Lon 172.01 60 km NW of Christchurch, Sth Island (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 20 days ahead
Pakistan Islamabad Region within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Nov 3+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M5.6	86%	7th November 2011 Lat 36.551 Lon 71.060 76 km SE of Faizabad, Hindu Kush Region , Afghanistan (USGS source) forecast 19 days ahead
Peru Region North to South within ≈1000 km of LIMA center, Lat -12.045 and Lon -77.028 *Much has been learned from this event and, as a result, a new forecast zone has been established - see table below.,	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M6.9*	68%	28th October 2011 Lat -14.515 Lon -76.009 51 km SSW of Ica, Near Coast of Central Peru (USGS source) forecast 9 days ahead
Philippines Region Philippines Region within ≈600 km of a center point at LABO, Lat 14.15 Lon 122.673	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	NIL Report
Samoa/Tonga within ≈350 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Oct 31+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M4.6	87%	6th November 2011 Lat -17.238 Lon -172.971 165 km SSE of Hihifo, Tonga (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Solomon Is'- Bougainville Region within ≈600 km of center at Lat -8.41 Lon 158.66	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M5.2	94%	28th October 2011 Lat -10-614 Lon 161.415 207 km SE of HONIARA, Solomon Islands (USGS source) forecast 9 days ahead
Spain and Portugal - Southern Regions Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco within 450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567	M2.6-M4.6 expected about Oct 30+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M3.7	97%	24th October 2011 (on cusp of moons) Lat 37.39 Lon -2.02 72 km NE of Almeria, Spain (EMSC/CSEM source*) forecast 5 days ahead
Taiwan Region within 225 km of M7.7 center (1999) at Lat 23.77 and Lon 120.98	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M5.7	79%	30th October 2011 Lat 25.39 Lon 122.91 122 km E of Keelung, Taiwan Region (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 11 days ahead (just outside border of forecast zone)
Tibetan Plateau and Himalayan Region includes cities like Kathmandu, New Delhi, and Islamabad* New zone** within ≈900 km of a Tibetan center located at Lat 32.28 Lon 81.98	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Oct 29+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M3.9	81%	26th October 2011 Lat 40.33 Lon 77.03 131 km NE of Kashi, Southern Xinjiang, China (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
Turkey within ≈425 km of a center at INSTANBUL, Turkey, at Lat 41.005 Lon 28.976 (region includes most of Western & Central Turkey, plus regions of Aegean and Black Seas)	M2.8-M4.8 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M3.6	95%	28th October 2011 Lat 39.09 Lon 26.87 70 km NW of Manisa, Near the Coast of Western Turkey (EMSC/CSEM source*) forecast 9 days ahead
Vanuatu New zone within ≈350 km from a center at Lat -19.182 and Lon 168.270, 160 km S of PORT-VILA, Vanuatu	M4.7-M6.7 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)	M5.8	98%	5th November 2011 Lat -18.293 Lon 168.309 61 S of PORT-VILA, Vanuatu (USGS source) forecast 17 days ahead

EMSC/CSEM http://www.emsc-csem.org/

Table 47b. Regional forecasts for Full Moon Period

from October 12-25* 2011 (UTC)

REGIONS USA/Canadian regions listed first, by latitude, then other regions in alphabetical order	Forecast Magnitude Ranges & Dates (UTC)	Observed Maximum Magnitude in each region	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date (UTC) & Location
Alaska USA Southern Region within ≈600 km of a new center at Lat 59.6 and Lon -148.9, about 185 km S of Anchorage.	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Oct 22 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M4.3	81%	22nd October 2011 Lat 61.488 Lon -151.937 121 km WNW of Anchorage, Southern Alaska (USGS source) forecast 24 days ahead
Vancouver Is. and Seattle Regions CANADA/USA New zone within ≈525 km radius of Tofino, B.C. at Lat 49.159 and Lon -125.874	M2.7-M4.7 expected about Oct 15 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M3.8	97%	12th October 2011 Lat 43.440 Lon -127.155 239 km SW of Pt Hardy, BC, Canada (Natural Recources/ Earthquakes Canada) forecast 14 days ahead
California - Oregon USA Border Region New zone Coast & Off Coast within ≈400 km of a center at Lat 41.29 Lon -125.95 160 km west of Orick, CA	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Oct 15 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M5.3	75%	13th October 2011 Lat 43.440 Lon -127.155 233 km W of Coos Bay, Off the Coast of Oregon (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
California 1. New zone 'Northern and Central CA' (& Western Nevada) within ≈450 km radius of Redwood Valley, CA at Lat 39.265 and Lon -123.204. Includes events off the coast near Eureka, CA, in the Triple Junction Region. **see table footnote	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Oct 18 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M4.0	91%	20th October 2011 Lat 37.856 Lon -122.253 3 km SE of Berkeley, San Francisco Bay Area, CA (USGS source) forecast 22 days ahead
California 2. Central, Southern, & Baja California Regions New zone Within ≈400 km of Beaumont, CA, at Lat 33.930 and Lon -116.978 **see table footnote	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Oct 17 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M4.3	98%	13th October 2011 Lat 31.811 Lon -116.016 124 km SW of Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
New Madrid Region Central USA New zone Within ≈550 km of a center at Springfield, Missouri, Lat 37.214 Lon -93.293 Extends to Central Oklahoma	M2.1-M4.1 expected about Oct 22 +/-3 days (posted 0832 hours 1st Oct)	M2.9	94%	18th October 2011 Lat 35.400 Lon -96.753 70 km E of OKLAHOMA CITY, Oklahoma (USGS source) forecast 17 days ahead
Hawaii USA Within 500 km of a center at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on the Island of Hawaii	M2.7-M4.7 expected about Oct 15 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M4.5	82%	20th October 2011 Lat 19.886 Lon -155.533 21 km SE of Waimea, HI (USGS source) forecast 22 days ahead
Caribbean 1. Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands Region within ≈225 km of Fajardo, Puerto Rico, at Lat 18.326 & Lon -65.652,	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Oct 21 +/-3 days (posted 0830 hours 1st Oct)	M3.5	88%	19th October 2011 Lat 19.227 Lon --66.040 83 km NE of SAN JUAN, PR (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Caribbean 2. Haiti & Dominican Republic,SE Cuba & Jamaica Region within ≈700 km of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, at Lat 18.54 & Lon -72.334	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Oct 15 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M4.1	74%	20th October 2011 Lat 19.479 Lon -68.816 161 km NE of SANTO DOMINGO, Dom. Republic (USGS source) forecast 22 days ahead
Bucharest Romania Region New zone, Europe within ≈250 km of Bucharest at Lat 44.44 & Lon 26.093. Includes part of Northern Bulgaria.	M2.9-M4.9 expected about Oct 15 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M4.0	98%	24th October 2011 Lat 45.64 Lon 26.44 58 km W of Focsani, Romania (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 26 days ahead
Chile 1. Northern Region within≈600 km of a center point 37 km NNE of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.34 Lon -70.29 (zone revised 3rd July 2011)	M4.6-M6.6 expected about Oct 17 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M5.1	91%	20th October 2011 Lat -22.885 Lon -66.296 64 km WSW of Abra Pampa, Jujuy, Argentina (USGS source) forecast 22 days ahead
Chile 2. Central Region within 500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon -71.359	M5.0-M7.0 expected about Oct 15 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M4.9	82%	16th October 2011 Lat -32.48 Lon -71.45 64 km NNE of Valparaiso, Offshore Valparaiso, Chile (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
China* Within 650 km of Liangshan, Sichuan at Lat 27.880 Lon 102.264 *Forecasts for China will be for the largest quake expected in the FULL lunar month (FM + NM periods). More exact timing cannot be forecast because of inadequate amounts of data readily available from China	No forecast was made	(M5.0)	N/A	31st October 2011 Lat 32.54 Lon 105.32 48 km WNW Guangyan, Sichuan-Gansu Border Region, China (USGS Preliminary Earthquake Report)
Colombia Region within 600 km of ARUSI, Colombia, Lat 5.583 Lon -77.484, on the coast Extends from Panama City region to Western Venezuela	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Oct 15 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M4.5	92%	20th October 2011 Lat 6.77 Lon -73.02 267 km NNE of BOGOTA, Northern Colombia (USGS Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 22 days ahead
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M5.6-M7.6 expected about Oct 15 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M4.9	74%	14th October 2011 Lat -18.83 Lon -173.36 321 km S of Hihifo, Tonga (USGS Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 16 days ahead
Greece New zone within 300 km of a center point at ITEA, Greece (Lat 38.435 & Lon 22.422)	M5.0-M7.0 expected about Oct 15 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M4.4	73%	13th October 2011 Lat 40.25 Lon 25.32 191 km SW of Edirne, Aegean Sea (EMSC/CSEM source*) forecast 15 days ahead
Guatemala Coastal Region within ≈300 km of a center point at Lat 14.07 Lon -91.92 offshore Guatemala, extending NW to southern Chiapas, Mex., & SE to El Salvador.	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Oct 19 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M5.0	100%	19th October 2011 Lat 15.208 Lon -92.893 75 km WNW of Tapachula, Offshore Chiapas. Mexico (USGS source) forecast 21 days ahead
El Salvador -Costa Rica Region includes southeast Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica within ≈500 km of a center point at La Trinidad, Nicaragua (Lat 12.566 Lon -86.178) Zone revised 19th April.	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Oct 19 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M4.3	86%	14th October 2011 Lat 13.82 Lon -89.93 80 km W of SAN SALVADOR, El Salvador (USGS - Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 16 days ahead
Indonesia 1. Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Oct 15 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M5.4	94%	16th October 2011 Lat 2.454 Lon 96.168 Simeulue, Indonesia, 300 km WNW of Sibolga, Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Indonesia 2. Sumatra Southern Region within ≈350 km of Bengkulu Utara, Southern Sumatra, centered at Lat -2.67 and Lon 101.34 (revised region on 18th April, at 1205 hrs)	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Oct 22 +/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 13th Oct)	M5.0	100%	22nd October 2011 Lat -4.555 Lon 100.771 186 km WSW of Bengkulu, Southwest of Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 9 days ahead
Indonesia 3. Sunda Strait Southern Sumatra to Java Region includes very southern Sumatra & Western Java, within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Oct 15 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M5.1	100%	22nd October 2011 Lat -7.849 Lon 104.123 294 km SW of Cilegon, Java (USGS source) forecast 24 days ahead
Italy Region within ≈500 km of a center in the Tyrrhenian Sea at Lat 40.28 Lon 11.88 (now excluding Alpine Northern Italy and Bosnia/ Montenegro Regions across the Adriatic Sea)	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Oct 16 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M4.2	95%	20th October 2011 Lat 44.45 Lon 9.42 39 km E of Genoa, Northern Italy (USGS source) forecast 22 days ahead
Japan 1. Hokkaido Region & Northernmost Honshu Region within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62 **see table footnote	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Oct 18 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M6.1	90%	21st October 2011 Lat 43.889 Lon 142.477 131 km NE of Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan (USGS source) forecast 23 days ahead
Japan 2. Honshu - Northern Region within ≈500 km of the M9.0 epicenter off East Coast of Honshu at Lat 38.322 Lon 142.369 **see table footnote	M5.3-M7.3 expected about Oct 16 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M5.2	82%	11th October 2011 (on cusp of moons) Lat 36.62 Lon 143.49 237 E of Iwaki, Off the East Coast of Honshu (EMSC/CSEM source*) forecast 13 days ahead
Japan 3. Honshu - Southern Region within ≈500 km of center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040 **see table footnote	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Oct 21 +/-3 days (posted 0830 hours 1st Oct)	M5.3	94%	25th October 2011 Lat 32.055 Lon 138.339 323 km S of Shizuoka, Honshu, in Izu Islands, Japan Region (USGS source) forecast 24 days ahead
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) New zone within ≈550 km of a NEW CENTRE near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Tajikistan, 66 km W of Kashgar, Xinjiang, China at Lat 40.58 Lon 77.286	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Oct 22 +/-3 days (posted 0830 hours 1st Oct)	M5.2	94%	16th October 2011 Lat 44.23 Lon 82.67 121 km ENE of Yining, Xinjiang, China (USGS - Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 15 days ahead
Mexico Southern Region within ≈575 km of Tlaxiaco, Oaxaca, Mexico, at Lat 17.280 Lon -97.671	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Oct 22 +/-3 days (posted 0830 hours 1st Oct)	M5.0	100%	19th October 2011 Lat 15.208 Lon -92.893 75 km WNW of Tapachula, Offshore Chiapas. Mexico (USGS source) forecast 21 days ahead
New Britain Region, PNG within 400 km of a center at KImbe, NB, at Lat -5.548 Lon 150.140	M4.6-M6.6 expected about Oct 22 +/-3 days (posted 0830 hours 1st Oct)	M6.5	86%	14th October 2011 Lat -6.78 Lon 147.990 110 km E of Lae (Geoscience Australia & Google Earth sources) forecast 13 days ahead
New Zealand "Northern Region" within ≈400 km of Taupo, North Island, New Zealand Lat -38.687 Lon 176.07, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island **see table footnote	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Oct 16 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M5.0	98%	22nd October 2011 Lat -37.35 Lon 177.73 270 km E of Auckland, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 24 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within 500 km from Christchurch, South Island Lat -43.527, Lon 172.622 **see table footnote	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Oct 19 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M4.5	90%	24th October 2011 Lat -41.3 Lon 172.37 80 km W of Nelson, South Island, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 26 days ahead
New Zealand Lower South Island New zone within ≈450 km of Queenstown at Lat -45.030 and Lon 168.66 **see table footnote	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Oct 19 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M3.8	79%	17th October 2011 Lat -43.60 Lon 172.53 10 km SW of Christchurch, South Island, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 19 days ahead
Pakistan Islamabad Region within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Oct 15 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M4.5	90%	19th October 2011 Lat 34.54 Lon 69.68 47 km E of Kabul, Hindu Kush Region, Afghanistan (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 21 days ahead
Peru Region North to South within ≈1000 km of LIMA center, Lat -12.045 and Lon -77.028	M4.4-M6.4 expected about Oct 22 +/-3 days (posted 0830 hours 1st Oct)	M5.3	98%	13th October 2011 Lat -6.644 Lon -75.494 627 km NE of LIMA, Northern Peru (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
Philippines Region within ≈600 km of a center point at LABO, Lat 14.15 Lon 122.673	M4.7-M6.7 expected about Oct 16 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M4.9	86%	19th October 2011 Lat 13.70 Lon 119.78 134 km W of Batangas, Philippine Island Region (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 21 days ahead
Samoa/Tonga within ≈350 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Oct 22 +/-3 days (posted 0830 hours 1st Oct)	M4.5	85%	17th October 2011 Lat -17.15 Lon -172.50 188 km SE of Hihifo, Tonga (USGS Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 16 days ahead
Solomon Is'- Bougainville Region within ≈600 km of center at Lat -8.41 Lon 158.66	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Oct 18 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M4.8	87%	11th October 2011 (on cusp of moons) Lat -8.31 Lon 157.31 315 km WNW of HONIARA, Solomon Islands (USGS Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 13 days ahead
Spain and Portugal - Southern Regions Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco within 450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Oct 16 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M3.5	100%	13th October 2011 Lat 38.11 Lon 0.40 81 km E of Alacant, Spain (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 15 days ahead
Taiwan Region within 225 km of M7.7 center (1999) at Lat 23.77 and Lon 120.98	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Oct 22 +/-3 days (posted 0830 hours 1st Oct)	M4.5	92%	13th October 2011 Lat 24.67 Lon 122.66 107 km SE of Keelung, Taiwan Region (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 15 days ahead
Tibetan Plateau and Himalayan Region includes cities like Kathmandu, New Delhi, and Islamabad* New zone** within ≈900 km of a Tibetan center located at Lat 32.28 Lon 81.98	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Oct 18 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M4.9	89%	20th October 2011 Lat 35.46 Lon 81.41 228 km SE of Hetian, Xinjiang-Xizang Border Region (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 22 days ahead
Turkey within ≈425 km of a center at INSTANBUL, Turkey, at Lat 41.005 Lon 28.976 (region includes most of Western & Central Turkey, plus regions of Aegean and Black Seas)	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Oct 17 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M4.4	95%	13th October 2011 Lat 40.25 Lon 25.32 191 km SW of Edirne, Aegean Sea (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 15 days ahead
Vanuatu New zone within ≈350 km from a center at Lat -19.182 and Lon 168.270, 160 km S of PORT-VILA, Vanuatu	M4.7-M6.7 expected about Oct 15 +/-3 days (posted 1215 hours 28th Sept)	M5.4	95%	16th October 2011 Lat -20.00 Lon 169.17 54 km S of Isangel, Vanuatu (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 20 days ahead

EMSC/CSEM http://www.emsc-csem.org/

Table 47a. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period

from September 27-October 11* 2011 (UTC)

REGIONS USA/Canadian regions listed first, by latitude, then other regions in alphabetical order	Forecast Magnitude Ranges & Dates (UTC)	Observed Maximum Magnitude in each region	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date (UTC) & Location
Alaska USA Southern Region within ≈600 km of a new center at Lat 59.6 and Lon -148.9, about 185 km S of Anchorage.	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Oct 3 +/-3 days (posted 0230 hours 20th Sept)	M4.8	100%	28th September 2011 Lat 63.286 Lon -150.610 86 km W of Cantwell, Central Alaska (USGS source) forecast 8 days ahead
Vancouver Is. and Seattle Regions CANADA/USA New zone within ≈525 km radius of Tofino, B.C. at Lat 49.159 and Lon -125.874	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Oct 8 +/-3 days (posted 0042 hours 28th Sept)	M4.2	100%	10th October 2011 Lat 50.606 Lon -129.663 516 km WNW of VICTORIA, BC, CANADA (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
California - Oregon USA Border Region New zone Coast & Off Coast within ≈400 km of a center at Lat 41.29 Lon -125.95 160 km west of Orick, CA	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Sept 30 +/-3 days (posted 0230 hours 20th Sept)	M2.6	65%	29th September 2011 Lat 38.83 Lon -122.76 43 km N of Sant Rosa, CA (USGS/NEIC & Google Earth sources) forecast 9 days ahead

Home

Forecasts of Largest Regional Earthquakes for Full Moon and New Moon Periods of the Lunar Month Ahead

Breakthrough in Research (August 2008)

Disclaimer

Forecasts of Largest Regional Earthquakes for Full Moon and New Moon Periods of
the Lunar Month Ahead