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Earthquake Predictions
CHINA REGION
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SOUTHERN CHINA - SICHUAN REGION
Terracotta Army, © copyright 2008 David Pedre, istockphoto. All rights reserved.
Earthquake predictions for Southern China have been added here since the disastrous M7.9 earthquake in Eastern Sichuan on 12 May (UTC) 2008, as the author believes that this powerful earthquake may have been anticipated by using his methods for forecasting earthquakes. Furthermore, the author forecast another earthquake of approximately
M5.5-M6.5 in the same general region for 24-30 May (see prediction below
in Table 1).
P.S. 25 May -See Table 1 below as an M6.0 did indeed occur
and the prediction of this largest aftershock was therefore 100% accurate in magnitude. The general location and the approximate timing were also as predicted. The aftershock
hit on the second day of a 4-day bracket of days when the
quake was expected.
The Sichuan Region is defined for these predictions as
including all events within a 500 km radius of
the epicenter of the above M7.9 earthquake, centered on
Lat 31.015°N and Lon 103.365°E.
All earthquake predictions for the China Region are for the largest earthquake in the nominated 10-day period, plus an error margin of about one day, but no attempt is made to make forecasts for all periods because of the constraints of private research. Each table, with its original earthquake prediction, will remain subject to revisions or
updates for 10 days.
Why updates may be necessary... because earthquakes
interact in a very dynamic system. Just as in reporting the
weather, the latest information must be taken into account to improve forecasting.
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SCROLL DOWN FOR TABLES
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STATISTICS FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION For period 13 August 2007 - 12 July 2008 (256 predictions)
SUCCESS RATES*
Mag Observed Events Predicted Events
(How many predicted?) (How many observed?)
Pred. Obs. %Correct Obs. Pred. %Correct
<M4 60 67 = 90% 58 66 = 88%
M4.0-4.9 76 85 = 89% 57 60 = 95%
M5.0-5.9 73 77 = 95% 90 96 = 94%
M6.0+ 25 27 = 93% 29 34 = 85%
___________________________________________ *These statistics are updated bi-monthly and refer to tabled predictions only, as no attempt
is made to predict all large earthquakes worldwide. Note that currently successful predictions are those which are ≈80% accurate on magnitude, and within a 10-day time window (plus an error margin of about one day), reflecting the fact that earthquake prediction is still an imprecise science. However, research here is aimed at improving this margin and currently 75% of all magnitude predictions have an error margin of only 15%. Any apparent numerical discrepancies between the two halves of the above table are due to the error margins: for example, an M6 category predicted quake might have come in at M5.8
OVERALL success rate from 256 predictions worldwide-
Observed events that were predicted (234/256) = 91.4%
Predicted events that were observed (234/256) = 91.4%
SCIENTIFIC: Correlation of Predicted & Observed Magnitudes
There is a highly significant correlation (r=0.90, P< .0001) between the full set of observed and predicted magnitudes, including 'false alarms' (Worldwide N=256 as of 12 July 2008).
EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION TABLES
M= Earthquake magnitude. See HOME page for further explanation of table entries.
Earthquake Location Maps - see the USGS web site for maps of earthquakes in these tables.
New 3-layer Table Format & Prediction Rules (25 Nov 07)
Please read following points to fully explain tables below:
1. The Original Earthquake Prediction, and details relating to it, are given in the top light blue layer of each table.
The 'expected date' (or dates) given here provide the best current estimate of when the largest earthquake event is most likely within the nominated 10-day window (date prediction made +10, or possibly ≈11 days). Please note that the time window now includes an error margin of ≈1 day which may extend it to include some closely predicted events, reflecting the fact that earthquake prediction is an imprecise science. The above estimates and other details may be updated, if necessary, in the next section of the table.
The Expected Range in Magnitude, for each event after 14th July 2008, is given as the predicted magnitude +/-1 magnitude (previously it was given as +/-0.5M). Statistical analyses of over 100 of the latest predictions show that 95% of them can be expected to fall within +/-1M of the predicted values, regardless of the region of the world involved. From 14th July 2008, any predictions which fall outside these limits by as little as 0.1M will be regarded as unsuccessful.
2. Revisions, if required, are given in the mid blue layer of each table, and these revisions are used in the final assessments of the results. Please see the statement above explaining why updates are desirable, and note that revisions are limited to a 10-day window. Revisions usually relate to
earthquake magnitude and expected timing, but may also include location.
3. The Observed Earthquake and details (for the event we were attempting to predict) are given in the bottom dark blue layer of each table. The event recorded here is the largest earthquake for the nominated 10-11 day period. 'PENDING...' simply means that the anticipated event has not yet happened, or that we are waiting for the event to be posted on the web site.
Earthquake Predictions for Southern China
(All predictions are based on USGS data to which the author has ready access.)
China Standard Time = UTC + 8 hours
All times on this web site are given in UTC (Universal Coodinated Time)
See also Long-term Forecasts
No. 6
PREDICTED M6.9 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 16 August 20th August +/- one day (UTC) 2008 Predicted at 1203 hrs UTC (time window open to 26th August) Probability of event >85% within 500 km of the June M8 epicenter
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This was a close call... OBSERVED M5.9 Observed Date/ Location
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No. 5
PREDICTED M5.8 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 27th July 27-28 July (UTC) 2008 Predicted at 0311 hrs UTC (time window open to 5th Aug only) Probability of event >85%
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| OBSERVED M6.2 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 79.4% 5th August Lat 32.735° Lon 105.514° Predicted 6 days ahead 45 km NNW of Guangyuan Sichuan-Gansu Border Region |
No. 4
PREDICTED M5.9 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 22 June 22-30 June (UTC) 2008 Predicted at 2200 hrs UTC (time window open to 2nd July) Probability of event >90%
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| OBSERVED M4.9 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 83% 27 June at Lat 32.31° Lon 105.07° (EMSC Source) Predicted 5 days ahead 205 km NNE of Chengdu (Google Earth) Sichuan-Gansu Border |
No. 3
PREDICTED M6.0 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 8 June 2008 12-13 June (UTC) most likely Predicted at 0742 hrs UTC (time window open to 18 June) Probability of event >85% within ≈500 km of recent M7.9 in Sichuan
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REVISED to M5.5 Expected Date/Location Revised range M5.0-M6.0 (time window open to 18 June) |
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OBSERVED M4.7 Observed Date/Location |
No. 2
PREDICTED M7.4 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 27 May 28 May (UTC) 2008 Predicted at 1406 hrs UTC (time window open to 7 June) Probability of event >85% within ≈500 km of recent M7.9 in Sichuan
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REVISED to M5.8* Expected Date/Location Revised 0003 hrs (UTC) 5th June 6-7th June (UTC) Revised range M5.3-M6.3 Time window closes 7th June Probability of event >90% Sichuan-Gansu Region Event revised down from M5.9 to M5.8 OBSERVED M5.3 *This was the largest earthquake after above revision for the ________________________________
Prediction just for May 30 (UTC): M3.8 This was the largest earthquake that modeling indicated for May 30, Range M3.3-M4.3 All predictions apply only to the zone given at the top of this table. P.S. No quake larger than M4 was reported for May 30, so the above prediction of M3.8 was quite accurate.
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M5.3 was predicted for the 29th May (UTC) as per following table,
REVISED to M5.3 Expected Dates Probability of event >90% Sichuan-Gansu Border Region?
OBSERVED M5.0 Observed Date/Location Predicted 4.5 hours ahead Sichuan-Gansu Border Region |
No. 1
PREDICTED M7.0 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 15 May '08 24 May-3 June (UTC) '08 plus ≈1 day margin Predicted at 1038 hrs UTC Probability of event >85% within ≈500 km of recent M7.9 in Sichuan
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REVISED to M6.0 Expected Date/Location Probability of event >85% remains open to May 29 plus ≈1 day margin ________________________________ REVIEW of 0515 hours on May 25 (UTC): The above event has been downgraded from M6.3 to M6.0 after the events of 22-24 May. The modeling used here still points to an M6.0 for 25-27 May (26th now most likely), with about a 15 % chance that the event will not occur. Caution is needed. However, readers should see the author's 'Disclaimer' on the Home Page. |
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OBSERVED M6.0 Observed Date/Location
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