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Earthquake PredictionsVanuatu Regionwithin 500 km of Port-Vila
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© Robert Weber, iStockphotos, Inc.
THE VANUATU REGION now includes only those areas within ≈500 km radius* of Port-Vila, the capital, at Lat -17.44°
and Lon 168.19°. This new definition applies from 18 February 2008, and represents a significant attempt to make earthquake prediction more accurate and relevant to Vanuatu.
*The radius is 500 km plus an ≈10% error margin of about 50 km in order to
include earthquake events that may occur close to the boundary of the region.
Previously, from 4 December 2007 to 18 February 2008, events
were accepted if they fell within 600 km of Port-Vila. The new
focus does not extend north to the Santa Cruz Islands, but does extend south to include the Loyalty Islands Region down to the northern coastline of New Caledonia.
All earthquake predictions for the Vanuatu Region are for the largest earthquake in the nominated 10-day period, plus an error margin of about one day, but no attempt is made to make forecasts for all periods because of the constraints of private research. Each table, with its original earthquake prediction, will remain subject to revisions or updates for 10 days.
Why updates may be necessary... because earthquakes interact in a very dynamic system. Just as in reporting the weather, the latest information must be taken into account to improve forecasting.
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SCROLL DOWN FOR TABLES
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STATISTICS FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION For period 13 August 2007 - 12 July 2008 (256 predictions)
SUCCESS RATES*
Mag Observed Events Predicted Events
(How many predicted?) (How many observed?)
Pred. Obs. %Correct Obs. Pred. %Correct
<M4 60 67 = 90% 58 66 = 88%
M4.0-4.9 76 85 = 89% 57 60 = 95%
M5.0-5.9 73 77 = 95% 90 96 = 94%
M6.0+ 25 27 = 93% 29 34 = 85%
___________________________________________ *These statistics are updated bi-monthly and refer to tabled predictions only, as no attempt
is made to predict all large earthquakes worldwide. Note that currently successful predictions are those which are ≈80% accurate on magnitude, and within a 10-day time window (plus an error margin of about one day), reflecting the fact that earthquake prediction is still an imprecise science. However, research here is aimed at improving this margin and currently 75% of all magnitude predictions have an error margin of only 15%. Any apparent numerical discrepancies between the two halves of the above table are due to the error margins: for example, an M6 category predicted quake might have come in at M5.8
OVERALL success rate from 256 predictions worldwide-
Observed events that were predicted (234/256) = 91.4%
Predicted events that were observed (234/256) = 91.4%
SCIENTIFIC: Correlation of Predicted & Observed Magnitudes
There is a highly significant correlation (r=0.90, P< .0001) between the full set of observed and predicted magnitudes, including 'false alarms' (Worldwide N=256 as of 12 July 2008).
EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION TABLES
M= Earthquake magnitude. See HOME page for further explanation of table entries.
Earthquake Location Maps - see the USGS web site for maps of earthquakes in these tables.
New 3-layer Table Format & Prediction Rules (25 Nov 07)
Please read following points to fully explain tables below:
1. The Original Earthquake Prediction, and details relating to it, are given in the top light blue layer of each table.
The 'expected date' (or dates) given here provide the best current estimate of when the largest earthquake event is most likely within the nominated 10-day window (date prediction made +10, or possibly ≈11 days). Please note that the time window now includes an error margin of ≈1 day which may extend it to include some closely predicted events, reflecting the fact that earthquake prediction is an imprecise science. The above estimates and other details may be updated, if necessary, in the next section of the table.
The Expected Range in Magnitude, for each event after 14th July 2008, is given as the predicted magnitude +/-1 magnitude (previously it was given as +/-0.5M). Statistical analyses of over 100 of the latest predictions show that 95% of them can be expected to fall within +/-1M of the predicted values, regardless of the region of the world involved. From 14th July 2008, any predictions which fall outside these limits by as little as 0.1M will be regarded as unsuccessful.
2. Revisions, if required, are given in the mid blue layer of each table, and these revisions are used in the final assessments of the results. Please see the statement above explaining why updates are desirable, and note that revisions are limited to a 10-day window. Revisions usually relate to
earthquake magnitude and expected timing, but may also include location.
3. The Observed Earthquake and details (for the event we were attempting to predict) are given in the bottom dark blue layer of each table. The event recorded here is the largest earthquake for the nominated 10-11 day period. 'PENDING...' simply means that the anticipated event has not yet happened, or that we are waiting for the event to be posted on the web site.
VANUATU REGION
See also Long-term Forecasts
No. 9
PREDICTED M5.5 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 23 June 23-25 June (UTC) 2008 Predicted at 2311 hrs UTC time window open to 2nd July Probability of event >90% within ≈500 km of Port-Vila
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| OBSERVED M4.9 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 89% 5th July at Lat -19.33° Lon 168.935° Event 3 days 'late' 185 km SSE of Port-Vila Vanuatu |
No. 8
PREDICTED M5.9 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 20 Apr '08 20-30 Apr (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0213 hrs UTC (time window open to 30 April, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >85% within ≈500 km of Port-Vila
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REVISION nil |
| OBSERVED M6.4 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 92.2% 28 April, Lat -19.95° Lon 169.03° (USGS) Predicted 8 days ahead 255 km SSE Port-Vila, Vanuatu |
No. 7
PREDICTED M5.8 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 6 Apr '08 6-10 Apr (UTC) '08 Predicted at 2144 hrs UTC (time window open to 16 April, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >85% within ≈500 km of Port-Vila
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REVISION nil
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OBSERVED M7.3 Observed Date/Location
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No. 6
PREDICTED M6.6 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 24 Mar '08 24-26 Mar (UTC) '08 Predicted at 2018 hrs UTC (time window open to 3 Apr, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >75% within ≈500 km radius of Port-Vila
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REVISED to M5.4 Expected Dates Revised at 0316 hrs on 26 Mar 26 Mar-3 Apr Probability of event >85% Updated magnitude M5.0-M6.0 |
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OBSERVED M5.0 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 92.6% 31 March, Lat -17.34° Lon 167.87° (EMSC) Predicted 5 days ahead 64 km NW of Port-Vila, Vanuatu
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No. 5
PREDICTED M6.9 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 9 Mar '08 9-11 Mar (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0033 hrs UTC ( window open 10 days to 19 Mar + 1 day error) Probability of event >70% within 500 km of Port-Vila
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REVISED to M5.6 Expected Date/Location Revised at 0835 hrs on 10 Mar March 10-19 (+ 1 day error margin) Updated range M5.0-6.0 Probability of event >85% |
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OBSERVED M6.4 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 87.5% 12 March, Lat -16.627 Lon 167.275 Predicted 3 days ahead 165 km NW Port-Vila, Vanuatu |
No. 4
PREDICTED M5.5 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 18 Feb '08 18-28 February (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0715 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 28 Feb) Probability of event >90%
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REVIEWS nil
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OBSERVED M5.4 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 98.2% 18 February, Lat 21.61 Lon 170.38 Predicted only 2.6 hrs ahead 255 km SSE of Tanna, VANUATU This event occurred at 0954 hrs SE of Loyalty Islands
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No.3
PREDICTED M5.9 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 9 Jan '08 9-19 January (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0030 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 19 Jan) Probability of event >88% |
Reviews nil
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OBSERVED M5.2 Observed date/Location Magnitude accuracy 88.1% 19 January '08 Lat -14.94, Lon 167.37 Predicted 10 days ahead VANUATU
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No. 2
PREDICTED M6.2 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 22 Dec '07 22 Dec '07 - 1 Jan '08 Predicted at 0540 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days) Probability of event >67% |
REVISED to M5.7 Expected Date Revised at 0235 hrs on 22 Dec 22 Dec '07 -1 Jan '08 Updated range M5.2-M6.2 Vanuatu Region
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| OBSERVED M5.6 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 98.2% 28 December '07 Lat -13.64, Lon 166.55 Predicted 6 days ahead VANUATU |
No. 1
PREDICTED M6.6 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 9 Dec '07 9-14 December (UTC) '07 Predicted at 1035 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 19 Dec) Probability of event >80%
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REVISED to M5.2 Expected date/Location Revised at 0630 hrs on 16 Dec UTC 16-19 December '07 Updated range M4.8-5.6 Vanuatu Region
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OBSERVED M5.2 Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 100% 17 December '07 at 20:12:33 hrs Predicted 1.5 days ahead Lat -19.46, Lon 169.27
VANUATU |