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Earthquake PredictionsTURKEY REGION |
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WESTERN TURKEY REGION
Kocatepe mosque, Ankara, Turkey © 2007 Serdar Yagci. (istockphoto) All rights reserved
This new region includes all areas within ≈350 km radius* of Usak (Lat 38.68° Lon 29.40°). The center is located 200 km east
of Izmir, 270 km south of Istanbul, and 325 km SW of Ankara. The
coastal areas and islands of Western Turkey are included in the region, and the northwest sector includes the sites of three of the
largest earthquake events in Turkey's recent history.
*The radius is 350 km plus an ≈10% error margin of about 35 km to include events close to the nominated boundary of the region.
All earthquake predictions for Western Turkey are for the largest earthquake in the nominated 10-day period, plus an error margin of about one day, but no attempt is made to make forecasts for all periods because of the constraints of private research. Each table, with its original earthquake prediction, will remain subject to revisions or updates for 10 days.
Why updates may be necessary... because earthquakes interact in a very dynamic system. Just as in reporting the weather, the latest information must be taken into account to improve forecasting.
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SCROLL DOWN FOR TABLES
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STATISTICS FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION For period 13 August 2007 - 12 July 2008 (256 predictions)
SUCCESS RATES*
Mag Observed Events Predicted Events
(How many predicted?) (How many observed?)
Pred. Obs. %Correct Obs. Pred. %Correct
<M4 60 67 = 90% 58 66 = 88%
M4.0-4.9 76 85 = 89% 57 60 = 95%
M5.0-5.9 73 77 = 95% 90 96 = 94%
M6.0+ 25 27 = 93% 29 34 = 85%
___________________________________________ *These statistics are updated bi-monthly and refer to tabled predictions only, as no attempt
is made to predict all large earthquakes worldwide. Note that currently successful predictions are those which are ≈80% accurate on magnitude, and within a 10-day time window (plus an error margin of about one day), reflecting the fact that earthquake prediction is still an imprecise science. However, research here is aimed at improving this margin and currently 75% of all magnitude predictions have an error margin of only 15%. Any apparent numerical discrepancies between the two halves of the above table are due to the error margins: for example, an M6 category predicted quake might have come in at M5.8
OVERALL success rate from 256 predictions worldwide-
Observed events that were predicted (234/256) = 91.4%
Predicted events that were observed (234/256) = 91.4%
SCIENTIFIC: Correlation of Predicted & Observed Magnitudes
There is a highly significant correlation (r=0.90, P< .0001) between the full set of observed and predicted magnitudes, including 'false alarms' (Worldwide N=256 as of 12 July 2008).
EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION TABLES
M= Earthquake magnitude. See HOME page for further explanation of table entries.
Earthquake Location Maps - see the USGS web site for maps of earthquakes in these tables.
New 3-layer Table Format & Prediction Rules (25 Nov 07)
Please read following points to fully explain tables below:
1. The Original Earthquake Prediction, and details relating to it, are given in the top light blue layer of each table.
The 'expected date' (or dates) given here provide the best current estimate of when the largest earthquake event is most likely within the nominated 10-day window (date prediction made +10, or possibly ≈11 days). Please note that the time window now includes an error margin of ≈1 day which may extend it to include some closely predicted events, reflecting the fact that earthquake prediction is an imprecise science. The above estimates and other details may be updated, if necessary, in the next section of the table.
The Expected Range in Magnitude, for each event after 14th July 2008, is given as the predicted magnitude +/-1 magnitude (previously it was given as +/-0.5M). Statistical analyses of over 100 of the latest predictions show that 95% of them can be expected to fall within +/-1M of the predicted values, regardless of the region of the world involved. From 14th July 2008, any predictions which fall outside these limits by as little as 0.1M will be regarded as unsuccessful.
2. Revisions, if required, are given in the mid blue layer of each table, and these revisions are used in the final assessments of the results. Please see the statement above explaining why updates are desirable, and note that revisions are limited to a 10-day window. Revisions usually relate to
earthquake magnitude and expected timing, but may also include location.
3. The Observed Earthquake and details (for the event we were attempting to predict) are given in the bottom dark blue layer of each table. The event recorded here is the largest earthquake for the nominated 10-11 day period. 'PENDING...' simply means that the anticipated event has not yet happened, or that we are waiting for the event to be posted on the web site.
WESTERN TURKEY REGION
See also Long-term Forecasts
No. 5
PREDICTED M4.0 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 11 June 2008 11-15 June (UTC) Predicted at 0138 hrs UTC (time window only open to 18 June) Probability of event >90%
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REVISION nil
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OBSERVED M4.1 Observed Date/Location |
No. 4
PREDICTED M4.0 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 20 Apr '08 20-30 Apr (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0015 hrs UTC (time window open to 30 April, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >90%
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REVISION nil
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OBSERVED M5.0 Observed Date/Location |
No. 3
PREDICTED M4.2 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 8 Apr '08 8-18 Apr (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0008 hrs UTC (time window open to 18 April, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >85% within ≈350 km of Usak
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REVISION nil
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OBSERVED M4.4 Observed Date/Location Dodecanese Islands, Greece |
No. 2
PREDICTED M5.2 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 24 Mar '08 24-25 Mar (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0123 hrs UTC (time window open to 3 Apr, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >85%
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REVISED to M4.2 Expected Dates Revised at 1203 hrs on 31 Mar 31 March - 3 April, plus ≈1 day margin Updated range M3.5-M4.5 |
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OBSERVED M3.5 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 83.3% 1st April, Lat 38.04° Lon 29.03° 11:14:36 hrs Predicted 23 hours ahead 29 km NW from Denizli
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No. 1
PREDICTED M4.5 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 2 Mar '08 2-12 March (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0638 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 12 Mar) Probability of event >90%
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REVISION nil
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OBSERVED M4.9 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 91.8% 5 March, Lat 36.16° Lon 27.50° Predicted 3 days ahead 191 S of Aydin, 325 SW Usak, Turkey Dodecanese Islands
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