Earthquake predictions Solomon Islands, New Britain Region

SOLOMON ISLANDS TO NEW BRITAIN REGIONS

are newly defined (18 February 2008) and treated separately to give greater focus and relevance of earthquake prediction for

each region defined as follows:

(1) The Solomon Islands - within ≈500 km* radius of Honiara

the capital at Lat -9.25°, Lon 159.56°

*The radius is 500 km plus an ≈10% error margin of about 50 km in order to include earthquake events that may occur close to the regional boundary.

(2) Bougainville (PNG) - within ≈150 km* radius of Sohano

at Lat -5.43°, Lon 154.67° in north-western Bougainville.

*The radius is 150 km plus an ≈10% error margin of about 15 km in order to include earthquake events that may occur close to the regional boundary.

(3) New Britain and New Ireland - within ≈300 km* radius of

Sulu on the mid north coast of New Britain.

The center point is at Lat -5.449°, Lon 150.949°

*The radius is 300 km plus an ≈10% error margin of about 30 km in order to include earthquake events that may occur close to the regional boundary.

Each earthquake prediction table (scroll down) will make it clear as to which of the above regions is under study.

Prior to 18 February 2008, the above regions extended 2400 km, centered

on the southern tip of Choiseul in the Solomons. The western arc passed through Port Moresby and the eastern arc included the Santa Cruz Islands.

All earthquake predictions for the above regions are for the largest earthquake in the nominated 10-day period, plus an error margin of about one day, but no attempt is made to make forecasts for all periods because of the constraints of private research. Each table, with its original earthquake prediction, will remain subject to revisions or updates for 10 days.

Why updates may be necessary... because earthquakes interact in a very dynamic system. Just as in reporting the weather, the latest information must be taken into account to improve forecasting.

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SCROLL DOWN FOR TABLES

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STATISTICS FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION For period 13 August 2007 - 12 July 2008 (256 predictions)

SUCCESS RATES*

Mag Observed Events Predicted Events

(How many predicted?) (How many observed?)

Pred. Obs. %Correct Obs. Pred. %Correct

<M4 60 67 = 90% 58 66 = 88%

M4.0-4.9 76 85 = 89% 57 60 = 95%

M5.0-5.9 73 77 = 95% 90 96 = 94%

M6.0+ 25 27 = 93% 29 34 = 85%

___________________________________________ *These statistics are updated bi-monthly and refer to tabled predictions only, as no attempt

is made to predict all large earthquakes worldwide. Note that currently successful predictions are those which are ≈80% accurate on magnitude, and within a 10-day time window (plus an error margin of about one day), reflecting the fact that earthquake prediction is still an imprecise science. However, research here is aimed at improving this margin and currently 75% of all magnitude predictions have an error margin of only 15%. Any apparent numerical discrepancies between the two halves of the above table are due to the error margins: for example, an M6 category predicted quake might have come in at M5.8

OVERALL success rate from 256 predictions worldwide-

Observed events that were predicted (234/256) = 91.4%

Predicted events that were observed (234/256) = 91.4%

SCIENTIFIC: Correlation of Predicted & Observed Magnitudes

There is a highly significant correlation (r=0.90, P< .0001) between the full set of observed and predicted magnitudes, including 'false alarms' (Worldwide N=256 as of 12 July 2008).

EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION TABLES

M= Earthquake magnitude. See HOME page for further explanation of table entries.

Earthquake Location Maps - see the USGS web site for maps of earthquakes in these tables.

New 3-layer Table Format & Prediction Rules (25 Nov 07)

Please read following points to fully explain tables below:

1. The Original Earthquake Prediction, and details relating to it, are given in the top light blue layer of each table.

The 'expected date' (or dates) given here provide the best current estimate of when the largest earthquake event is most likely within the nominated 10-day window (date prediction made +10, or possibly ≈11 days). Please note that the time window now includes an error margin of ≈1 day which may extend it to include some closely predicted events, reflecting the fact that earthquake prediction is an imprecise science. The above estimates and other details may be updated, if necessary, in the next section of the table.

The Expected Range in Magnitude, for each event after 14th July 2008, is given as the predicted magnitude +/-1 magnitude (previously it was given as +/-0.5M). Statistical analyses of over 100 of the latest predictions show that 95% of them can be expected to fall within +/-1M of the predicted values, regardless of the region of the world involved. From 14th July 2008, any predictions which fall outside these limits by as little as 0.1M will be regarded as unsuccessful.

2. Revisions, if required, are given in the mid blue layer of each table, and these revisions are used in the final assessments of the results. Please see the statement above explaining why updates are desirable, and note that revisions are limited to a 10-day window. Revisions usually relate to

earthquake magnitude and expected timing, but may also include location.

3. The Observed Earthquake and details (for the event we were attempting to predict) are given in the bottom dark blue layer of each table. The event recorded here is the largest earthquake for the nominated 10-11 day period. 'PENDING...' simply means that the anticipated event has not yet happened, or that we are waiting for the event to be posted on the web site.

See latest earthquake predictions below...

Two-three tables may be running concurrently so please

scroll down.

See also Long-term Forecasts

No.18 Solomon Islands

PREDICTED M7.2 Expected Date/Location

Original prediction 21 August 21-23 August (UTC) 2008

Predicted at 0325 hrs UTC (time window open to 31st August only)

Probability of event >85% within ≈500 km of Honiara
Magnitude Range M6.0-M8.0 Solomon Islands

REVISED to M6.9 Expected Date/Location

Revised 0805 hours 29th Aug 29-31 August (UTC) 2008

     OBSERVED M5.0     Observed Date/Location
    Magnitude accuracy 72.5%           30th August Lat -7.0 Lon 155.8
                                                                                      525 km WNW of Honiara
                                                                                      Solomon Islands

No. 17 Solomon Islands

PREDICTED M5.0 Expected Date/Location

Original prediction 11 July 11-21 July (UTC) 2008

Predicted at 0818 hrs UTC (time window open to 21st July, plus ≈1 day margin)

Probability of event >95% within ≈500 km of Honiara
Magnitude Range M4.5-M5.5 Solomon Islands

REVISION nil

     OBSERVED M5.2     Observed Date/Location
    Magnitude accuracy 96.2%          12th July at Lat 10.590° Lon 161.652°
    Predicted one day ahead              225 km SE of Honiara
                                    Solomon Islands

No. 16 New Britain Region (including New Ireland)

PREDICTED M6.3 Expected Date/Location

Original prediction 15 June 2008 15-25June (UTC) 2008

Predicted at 0624 hrs UTC (time window open to 25 June, plus ≈1 day margin)

Probability of event >85% within ≈300km of Sulu
Magnitude Range M5.5-M6.5 New Britain Region

REVISION nil

     OBSERVED M5.7     Observed Date/Location
    Magnitude accuracy 95%             25 June at Lat -5.288° Lon 151.701°
        Predicted 10 days ahead             130 km SSW from Rabaul, N.B.

No. 15 New Britain Region (including New Ireland)

PREDICTED M5.2 Expected Date/Location

Original prediction 22 May '08 22-24 May (UTC) '08

Predicted at 0120 hrs UTC (time window open to 1 June, plus ≈1 day margin)

Probability of event >90% within ≈300 km of Sulu
Magnitude Range M4.5-M5.5 New Britain Region

     REVISED to M5.8    Expected Dates
    Revised at 0230 hrs on 26 May       26-30 May (29th now most likely)
      Updated renge M5.3-M6.3            (time window to 1 June, plus ≈1 day margin)

     OBSERVED M5.0     Observed Date/Location
    Magnitude accuracy 86.2%          30th May at Lat -4.29° Lon152.59°
    Predicted 4 days ahead                    45 km E of Rabaul, PNG

No. 14 New Britain Region (including New Ireland)

PREDICTED M5.8 Expected Date/Location

Original prediction 20 Apr '08 20-30 Apr (UTC) '08

Predicted at 0343 hrs UTC (time window open to 30 April, plus ≈1 day margin)

Probability of event >90% within ≈300 km of Sulu
Magnitude Range M5.3-M6.3 New Britain Region

REVISION nil

OBSERVED M4.9 Observed Date/Location

     Magnitude accuracy 84.5%              30 April, Lat -7.00°, Lon 150.59°
    Predicted 10 days ahead                145 km SE of Kandrian (USGS)
                                                             185 SSW of Sulu (Google Earth)
                                                               New Britain Region, PNG

No. 13 Bougainville Region

PREDICTED M4.5 Expected Date/Location

Original prediction 20 Apr '08 20-30 Apr (UTC) '08

Predicted at 0333 hrs UTC (time window open to 30 April, plus ≈1 day margin)

Probability of event >90% within ≈150 km of Sohano
Magnitude Range M4.0-M5.0 Bougainville Region

REVISION if needed is posted here

     Nil Return - nothing over M4 reported for this period.

No. 12 Solomon Islands Region

PREDICTED M5.2 Expected Date/Location

Original prediction 20 Apr '08 20-30 Apr (UTC) '08

Predicted at 0328 hrs UTC (time window open to 30 April, plus ≈1 day margin)

Probability of event >90% within ≈500 km of Honiara
Magnitude Range M4.7-M5.7 Solomon Islands Region

REVISION nil

     OBSERVED M5.0     Observed Date/Location
Magnitude accuracy 96.2%             27 April, Lat -9.766° Lon 160.172° (USGS)
      Predicted 7 days ahead                 40 km SE of Honiara
                      Solomon Islands

No. 11 Solomon Islands Region

PREDICTED M4.6 Expected Date/Location

Original prediction 8 Apr '08 8-15 Apr (UTC) '08

Predicted at 0109 hrs UTC (time window open to 18 April, plus ≈1 day margin)

Probability of event >85% within ≈500 km of Honiara
Magnitude Range M4.1-M5.1 Solomon Islands Region

REVISION nil

   OBSERVED M4.8     Observed Date/Location
    Magnitude accuracy 95.8%             10 April at 7:59:25 hrs, Lat -10.15° Lon 161.26°
        Predicted 2 days ahead                   168 km SE of Honiara
                                    Solomon Islands

No. 10 New Britain and New Ireland Regions

PREDICTED M4.8 Expected Date/Location

Original prediction 8 Apr '08 8-14 Apr (UTC) '08

Predicted at 0105 hrs UTC (time window open to 18 April, plus ≈1 day margin)

Probability of event >85% within ≈300 km of Sulu, New Britain
Magnitude Range M4.3-M5.3 New Britain Region

REVISION nil

   OBSERVED M4.0    Observed Date/Location
    Magnitude accuracy 83.3%        18 April at Lat -6.35° Lon 148.52°
        Predicted 10 days ahead            287 km WSW of Sulu (Google Earth)
                                                           New Britain Region

No. 9 Bougainville Region

PREDICTED M6.0 Expected Date/Location

Original prediction 2 Apr '08 2-4 Apr (UTC) '08

Predicted at 0228 hrs UTC (time window open to 12 April, plus ≈1 day margin)

Probability of event >75% within ≈150km of Sohano
Magnitude Range M5.5-M6.5 Bougainville Region

REVISED to M4.5 Expected Dates

Revised at 1240 hrs on 7 April 7-12 April, plus 1 day margin
Updated range M4.0-M5.0

   OBSERVED M4.8     Observed Date/Location
    Magnitude accuracy 93.8%             8 April, Lat -6.43° Lon 154.89° 0907 hrs
    Predicted 21.5 hrs ahead          77 km W of Arawa (EMSC)
                                                       Bougainville

No. 8 Bougainville Region (see definition above)

PREDICTED M5.3 Expected Date/Location

Original prediction 8 Mar '08 8-18 Mar (UTC) '08

Predicted at 0930 hrs UTC ( window open 10 days to 18 Mar + 1 day margin)

Probability of event >85%
Magnitude Range M4.5-M6.0 Bougainville Region

REVISED to M4.9 Expected Dates

Revised at 1004 hrs on 15 Mar 15-18 March + 1 day error margin

Updated range M4.0-M5.5

OBSERVED M5.2 Observed Date/Location

Magnitude accuracy 94.2% 19 March at 11:55:53 hrs, Lat -6.92° Lon 155.29°

Predicted 4 days ahead 80 km SSW of Arawa

Bougainville Region, PNG

No.7 New Britain Region (new definition above)

PREDICTED M6.4 Expected Date/Location

Original prediction 13 Feb '08 13-15 February (UTC) '08

Predicted at 0055 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 23 Feb)

Probability of event >75%
Magnitude Range M5.5-M6.5 New Britain Region

REVISED to M5.3 Expected Date

Revised 0553 hrs on 14 February 14-23 February

Revised Range M5.0-M6.0

OBSERVED M4.9 Observed Date/Location

Magnitude accuracy 92.4% 15 Feb, Lat -5.06° Lon 152.07°

Predicted 38 hrs 30 min ahead New Britain Region

(USGS/NEIC Earthquake Search)

No. 6

PREDICTED M6.0 Expected Date/Location

Original prediction 30 Jan '08 30-31 January (UTC) '08

Predicted at 0636 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 8 Feb)

Probability of event >74%
Magnitude Range M5.0-M6.0 New Britain Region

Possibly the Solomon Islands

REVIEWS nil

OBSERVED M5.3 Observed Date/Location

Magnitude accuracy 88.3% 3 February, Lat -6.09 Lon 149.83

Predicted 4 days ahead 470 km NE of Port Moresby

New Britain Region

No. 5

PREDICTED M5.8 Expected Date/Location

Original prediction 10 Jan '08 10-20 January (UTC) '08

Predicted at 0917 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 20 Jan)

Magnitude Range M5.2-M6.4
Probability of Event >90% SOLOMONS REGION

Reviews nil

OBSERVED M4.6 Observed Date/Location

Magnitude accuracy 79.3% 11 January Lat -10.27, Lon 161.11E

Predicted 1 day ahead 155 km SE Honiara

Solomon Islands

No. 4

PREDICTED M6.0 Expected Date/Location

Original prediction 19 Dec '07 19-24 December (UTC) '07

Predicted at 0415 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 29 Dec)

Probability of event >80%
Magnitude Range M5.5-M6.3 SOLOMONS REGION

REVISION nil

OBSERVED M5.5 Observed Date/Location

Magnitude accuracy 91.7% 19 December '07 at 11:35:01 hrs

Predicted 7:20 hrs ahead Lat -7.06, Lon 155.74, 95 km SSE Arawa

BOUGAINVILLE, PNG

No. 3

PREDICTED M6.8 Expected Date/Location

Original prediction 4 Dec '07 4-6 December (UTC) '07

Predicted at 0010 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 14 Dec)

Magnitude Range M6.4-M7.2 NEW BRITAIN REGION

Probability of event >90% and the Solomon Islands

REVISED to M6.0 Expected Date/Location

Revised at 0410 hrs on 12 Dec '07 12-14 December '07

Updated range M5.5-M6.5 New Britain Region?

OBSERVED M5.1 Expected Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 85% 14 December '07

Magnitude adjusted 12 Dec (above) 500 km WNW of Honiara

Solomon Islands

Lat 7.14 S, Lon 156.08 E

No. 2

PREDICTED M6.9 Expected Date/Location

Original prediction 1 Nov '07 1-3 November (UTC) '07

Predicted at 0345 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 11 Nov)

Magnitude Range M6.8-M6.9 SOLOMON ISLANDS/

Probability of event >90% NEW BRITAIN REGION

REVISED to M5.8 Expected Date Revised at 2130 hrs on 9 Nov 9-10 November

Updated range M5.7-M5.8 (Time window open until 11 Nov)

OBSERVED M5.8 Observed Date/Location

Magnitude accuracy 100% 10 November '07

Predicted 9 days ahead, and

revised 18 hrs ahead Santa Cruz Islands

Lat -11.56, Lon 166.27

No. 1 (Predicted on 9 October, 2007)

PREDICTED M4.7
Probability of event >90%
Range M4.6 - M4.8

Expected Date/Location
10 Oct '07

New Britain and Solomons Region

OBSERVED M5.0
Magnitude accuracy 94% Predicted 1 day ahead

Observed Date/Location
10 Oct '07, South of Fiji

Lat -25.87, Lon 179.63

Earthquake Predictions

Solomon Islands

Bougainville

New Britain-New Ireland

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