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Earthquake Predictions
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A high peak of the Andes, Peru © iStockphoto Inc. All rights reserved.
PERU REGION - now only areas within ≈500 km radius*
from Lima (Lat -12.09, Lon -77.04).
COLOMBIA REGION - only areas within ≈350 km radius* from Medellin (Lat 6.24, Lon -75.68).
*The radius is 350 or 500 km, respectively, plus an ≈10% error margin of about
35-50 km in order to include earthquake events that occur close to the nominated boundary of the region.
The above focus on a smaller area of Peru should allow for more
accurate and relevant predictions to be made for Lima, the capital.
The region extends on the coast from about latitude -8° near the
town of Trujillo down to latitude -16° The new definition applies
from 23 February 2008.
For the record, for earthquake predictions from 8-23 February 2008, the Peru
region included areas within 1100 km radius of Lima, and prior to 8 February
within 1500 km radius of Chimbote on the central coast.
All earthquake predictions for the Peru Region and Colombia
are for the largest earthquake in the nominated 10-day period, plus an error margin of about one day, but no attempt is made to make forecasts for all periods because of the constraints of private research. Each table, with its original earthquake prediction, will remain subject to revisions or updates for 10 days.
Why updates may be necessary... because earthquakes interact in a very dynamic system. Just as in reporting the weather, the latest information must be taken into account to improve forecasting.
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SCROLL DOWN FOR TABLES
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STATISTICS FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION For period 13 August 2007 - 12 July 2008 (256 predictions)
SUCCESS RATES*
Mag Observed Events Predicted Events
(How many predicted?) (How many observed?)
Pred. Obs. %Correct Obs. Pred. %Correct
<M4 60 67 = 90% 58 66 = 88%
M4.0-4.9 76 85 = 89% 57 60 = 95%
M5.0-5.9 73 77 = 95% 90 96 = 94%
M6.0+ 25 27 = 93% 29 34 = 85%
___________________________________________ *These statistics are updated bi-monthly and refer to tabled predictions only, as no attempt
is made to predict all large earthquakes worldwide. Note that currently successful predictions are those which are ≈80% accurate on magnitude, and within a 10-day time window (plus an error margin of about one day), reflecting the fact that earthquake prediction is still an imprecise science. However, research here is aimed at improving this margin and currently 75% of all magnitude predictions have an error margin of only 15%. Any apparent numerical discrepancies between the two halves of the above table are due to the error margins: for example, an M6 category predicted quake might have come in at M5.8
OVERALL success rate from 256 predictions worldwide-
Observed events that were predicted (234/256) = 91.4%
Predicted events that were observed (234/256) = 91.4%
SCIENTIFIC: Correlation of Predicted & Observed Magnitudes
There is a highly significant correlation (r=0.90, P< .0001) between the full set of observed and predicted magnitudes, including 'false alarms' (Worldwide N=256 as of 12 July 2008).
EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION TABLES
M= Earthquake magnitude. See HOME page for further explanation of table entries.
Earthquake Location Maps - see the USGS web site for maps of earthquakes in these tables.
New 3-layer Table Format & Prediction Rules (25 Nov 07)
Please read following points to fully explain tables below:
1. The Original Earthquake Prediction, and details relating to it, are given in the top light blue layer of each table.
The 'expected date' (or dates) given here provide the best current estimate of when the largest earthquake event is most likely within the nominated 10-day window (date prediction made +10, or possibly ≈11 days). Please note that the time window now includes an error margin of ≈1 day which may extend it to include some closely predicted events, reflecting the fact that earthquake prediction is an imprecise science. The above estimates and other details may be updated, if necessary, in the next section of the table.
The Expected Range in Magnitude, for each event after 14th July 2008, is given as the predicted magnitude +/-1 magnitude (previously it was given as +/-0.5M). Statistical analyses of over 100 of the latest predictions show that 95% of them can be expected to fall within +/-1M of the predicted values, regardless of the region of the world involved. From 14th July 2008, any predictions which fall outside these limits by as little as 0.1M will be regarded as unsuccessful.
2. Revisions, if required, are given in the mid blue layer of each table, and these revisions are used in the final assessments of the results. Please see the statement above explaining why updates are desirable, and note that revisions are limited to a 10-day window. Revisions usually relate to
earthquake magnitude and expected timing, but may also include location.
3. The Observed Earthquake and details (for the event we were attempting to predict) are given in the bottom dark blue layer of each table. The event recorded here is the largest earthquake for the nominated 10-11 day period. 'PENDING...' simply means that the anticipated event has not yet happened, or that we are waiting for the event to be posted on the web site.
PERU REGION & COLOMBIA
There may be separate tables for these regions so
please scroll down.
See also Long-term Forecasts
No. 10 Peru Region
PREDICTED M6.3 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 10 July 10-12 July (UTC) 2008 Predicted at 0158 hrs UTC (time window open to 20 July, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >85% within ≈500 km of Lima
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REVISED to M5.6 Expected Date/Location Revised 0650 hours, 14th July 14-15th July, but window open as above
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OBSERVED M4.8 Observed Date/Location
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No. 9
PREDICTED M5.9 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 20 Apr '08 20-30 Apr (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0241 hrs UTC (time window open to 30 April, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >90% within ≈500 km of Lima
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REVISED to M4.6 Expected Dates
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| OBSERVED M3.8 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 82.6% 29 th April at Lat -13.61 Lon -76.4 Occurred same day, but days before author 185 km SSE of LIMA (Google Earth) had access to the regional printout of data Offshore near Pisco, Peru |
No. 8
PREDICTED M5.0 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 8 Apr '08 8-18 Apr (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0040 hrs UTC (time window open to 18 April, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >85% within ≈500 km of Lima
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REVISION nil |
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OBSERVED M4.8 Observed Date/Location
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No. 7
PREDICTED M6.8 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 8 Mar '08 8-10 Mar (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0719 hrs UTC (window open 10 days to 18 Mar +1 day margin) Probability of event >80%
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REVISED to M5.1 Expected Dates Revised at 0220 hrs on 11 Mar 11-18 March + ≈1 day error margin Probability of event >85% within 500 km of LIMA, PERU Updated magnitude M4.6-M5.6
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OBSERVED M4.9 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 96.1% Only 4 hrs 43 min into 20th March Predicted 9 days ahead 220 W of Lima, Lat -11.85° Lon -76.06° Off Coast of Central Peru |
No. 6
PREDICTED M5.0 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 23 Feb '08 23 Feb-4 Mar (UTC) '08 Predicted at 1111 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 4 Mar) Probability of event >90% within 500 km of Lima
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REVISION nil
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OBSERVED M4.6 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 92% 1 March, Lat -7.762° Lon -77.773 ° Predicted 7 days ahead 485 km North from LIMA Northern Peru |
No. 5
PREDICTED M7.4 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 8 Feb '08 8-10 Feb (UTC) '08 Predicted at 2238 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 18 Feb) Probability of event >75%
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REVISED to M5.9 Expected Date/Location Revised at 0146 hrs on 14 February 14-15 February, window open to 18th Revised Range M5-M6.0 Within 1100 km from Lima |
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OBSERVED M4.8 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 81.4% 17 February, Lat -13.40 ° Lon -76.81° Predicted 3 days ahead 145 km S of Lima Near Coast of Central Peru |
No. 4
PREDICTED M5.2 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 10 Jan '08 10-20 January (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0849 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 20 Jan) Magnitude Range M4.4-M5.8 |
REVIEWS nil
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OBSERVED M4.8 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 92.3% 18 January Lat -15.11, Lon -74.66 Predicted 8 days ahead 170 km SE Ica, and 420 km SE Lima Nr Coast Sth Peru
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No. 3
PREDICTED M6.9 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 7 Dec '07 7-8 Dec (UTC) 2007 likely, but Magnitude Range M6.5-7.5 time window open 10 days to 17 Dec Probability of event >75% PERU REGION Southern Peru near Ica? |
REVISED to M5.7 Expected Date/Location Revised at 1155 hrs on 17 Dec 17 December Updated range M5.5-M6.5 Southern Peru near Ica? |
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OBSERVED M5.0 Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 72.5% 10 December '07 (Compared with M6.9 prediction above as Lat 0.57, Lon -79.93 revision was made too late for this event) Nr Coast Ecuador
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No. 2
PREDICTED M6.6 Expected Date/Location Original prediction, 5 Oct '07 6-8 October (UTC) 2007 likely, but Magnitude Range M6.3-6.9 time window open 10 days to 15 Oct Probability of event >75% PERU REGION |
REVISED to M6.3 Expected Date, 12 Oct Revised at 0035 hrs on 12 Oct (Time window open until 15 Oct) Updated range M6.2-M6.4
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OBSERVED M4.5 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 71.4% 13 October '07 Lat -8.08, Lon -81.29 FAILED on magnitude, and timing was 1 hr 35 min after Off Coast of time window closed NORTHERN PERU
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No.1 (Predicted on 16 August, 2007)
| PREDICTED M5.2 Probability of event >75% Range M5.1 - M5.3 |
Expected Date/Location Nr Coast of Central Peru |
| OBSERVED M5.5 Magnitude accuracy 94.5% Predicted 1 day ahead |
Observed Date/Location 17 Aug '07, Nr Coast Central Peru Lat -13.76, Lon -76.09 |
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