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Earthquake Predictions
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THE NEW ZEALAND REGION is now subdivided
(02-29-'08) for earthquake predictions as follows:
(1) The North Island Region - within ≈400 km radius* of Rotorua at Lat -38.13° and Lon 176.22°
*The radius is 400 km plus an ≈10% error margin of about 40 km in order to include events that may occur close to the nominated regional boundary.
(2) The South Island - northwards from Ashburton (Lat -43.9°). Ashburton is about 80 km SW of Christchurch, in southern Canterbury This region will include events within ≈50 km of coast.
(3) The Southern Half of the South Island - from Ashburton to about 150 km south of the Invercargill Region (that is, all areas between Lat -43.9° and Lat -47.0°, including events within ≈50 km of the West Coast).
When an earthquake prediction is made the relevant tables below
will clearly label which region is involved. Because there are three regions, 2-3 tables may be running concurrently and readers may
need to scoll down through the top three tables to check for all current ones.
For the record, from 16 January to 29 February '08, the New Zealand Region included only those areas within an 800 km radius of Hastings, and prior to
that within a 1250 km radius of Wellington. The changes have resulted from ongoing research to improve both the accuracy and relevance of earthquake predictions for New Zealand However, further regional changes are unlikely
in the immediate future.
All earthquake predictions for the New Zealand Region are for the largest earthquake in the nominated 10-day period, plus an
error margin of about one day, but no attempt is made to make forecasts for all periods because of the constraints of private research. Each table, with its original earthquake prediction, will remain subject to revisions or updates for 10 days.
Why updates may be necessary... because earthquakes interact in a very dynamic system. Just as in reporting the weather, the latest information must be taken into account to improve forecasting.
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SCROLL DOWN FOR TABLES
STATISTICS FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION For period 13 August 2007 - 12 July 2008 (256 predictions)
SUCCESS RATES*
Mag Observed Events Predicted Events
(How many predicted?) (How many observed?)
Pred. Obs. %Correct Obs. Pred. %Correct
<M4 60 67 = 90% 58 66 = 88%
M4.0-4.9 76 85 = 89% 57 60 = 95%
M5.0-5.9 73 77 = 95% 90 96 = 94%
M6.0+ 25 27 = 93% 29 34 = 85%
___________________________________________ *These statistics are updated bi-monthly and refer to tabled predictions only, as no attempt
is made to predict all large earthquakes worldwide. Note that currently successful predictions are those which are ≈80% accurate on magnitude, and within a 10-day time window (plus an error margin of about one day), reflecting the fact that earthquake prediction is still an imprecise science. However, research here is aimed at improving this margin and currently 75% of all magnitude predictions have an error margin of only 15%. Any apparent numerical discrepancies between the two halves of the above table are due to the error margins: for example, an M6 category predicted quake might have come in at M5.8
OVERALL success rate from 256 predictions worldwide-
Observed events that were predicted (234/256) = 91.4%
Predicted events that were observed (234/256) = 91.4%
SCIENTIFIC: Correlation of Predicted & Observed Magnitudes
There is a highly significant correlation (r=0.90, P< .0001) between the full set of observed and predicted magnitudes, including 'false alarms' (Worldwide N=256 as of 12 July 2008).
EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION TABLES
M= Earthquake magnitude. See HOME page for further explanation of table entries.
Earthquake Location Maps - see the USGS web site for maps of earthquakes in these tables.
New 3-layer Table Format & Prediction Rules (25 Nov 07)
Please read following points to fully explain tables below:
1. The Original Earthquake Prediction, and details relating to it, are given in the top light blue layer of each table.
The 'expected date' (or dates) given here provide the best current estimate of when the largest earthquake event is most likely within the nominated 10-day window (date prediction made +10, or possibly ≈11 days). Please note that the time window now includes an error margin of ≈1 day which may extend it to include some closely predicted events, reflecting the fact that earthquake prediction is an imprecise science. The above estimates and other details may be updated, if necessary, in the next section of the table.
The Expected Range in Magnitude, for each event after 14th July 2008, is given as the predicted magnitude +/-1 magnitude (previously it was given as +/-0.5M). Statistical analyses of over 100 of the latest predictions show that 95% of them can be expected to fall within +/-1M of the predicted values, regardless of the region of the world involved. From 14th July 2008, any predictions which fall outside these limits by as little as 0.1M will be regarded as unsuccessful.
2. Revisions, if required, are given in the mid blue layer of each table, and these revisions are used in the final assessments of the results. Please see the statement above explaining why updates are desirable, and note that revisions are limited to a 10-day window. Revisions usually relate to
earthquake magnitude and expected timing, but may also include location.
3. The Observed Earthquake and details (for the event we were attempting to predict) are given in the bottom dark blue layer of each table. The event recorded here is the largest earthquake for the nominated 10-11 day period. 'PENDING...' simply means that the anticipated event has not yet happened, or that we are waiting for the event to be posted on the web site.
NEW ZEALAND REGIONS
Two-three tables may be running concurrently,
so please scroll down.
See also Long-term Forecasts
No. 16 North Island Region
PREDICTED M3.9 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 20 Apr '08 20-30 Apr (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0405 hrs UTC (time window open to 30 April, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >85% within ≈400 km of Rotorua
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REVISION nil
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OBSERVED M4.0 Observed Date/Location Predicted 11.5 days ahead 20 km N of Wellington |
No. 15 South Island - North of Ashburton
PREDICTED M5.0 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 20 Apr '08 20-30 Apr (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0413 hrs UTC (time window open to 30 April, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >90% Southern Canterbury to Nelson Region
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REVISED to M4.4 Expected Dates |
| OBSERVED M4.6 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 95.6% 1st May, Lat -43.23, Lon 171.03 Predicted 4 days ahead 130 km West of Christchurch South Island, NZ |
No. 14 Ashburton to Invercargill, South Island
PREDICTED M3.8 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 20 Apr '08 20-30 Apr (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0423 hrs UTC (time window open to 30 April, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >85%
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REVISION nil
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| OBSERVED M3.6 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 94.7% 20 April at 1932 hrs, Lat -44.39° Lon 168.85° Predicted 15 hours ahead 210 NW of Dunedin, NZ |
No. 13 North Island Region
PREDICTED M4.2 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 8 Apr '08 8-18 Apr (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0048 hrs UTC (time window open to 18 April, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >85% within ≈400 km of Rotorua
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REVIEW nil |
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OBSERVED M4.0 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 95.2% 9 April at 0255 hrs, Lat -37.76° Lon 177.59°
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No. 12 South Island - North of Ashburton
PREDICTED M3.5 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 8 Apr '08 8-18 Apr (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0045 hrs UTC (time window open to 18 April, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >85% Southern Canterbury to Nelson Region
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REVISION nil
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OBSERVED M3.7 Observed Date/Location
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No. 11 North Island Region
PREDICTED M4.4 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 2 Apr '08 2-4 Apr (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0122 hrs UTC (time window open to 12 April, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >85% within ≈400 km of Rotorua
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REVISION nil
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OBSERVED M4.3 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 97.7% 3 April at 1824 hrs, Lat -40.69° Lon 174.67°
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No. 10 South Island - North of Ashburton
PREDICTED M4.3 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 2 Apr '08 2-4 Apr (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0146 hrs UTC (time window open to 12 April, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >85% Southern Canterbury to Nelson Region
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REVISION nil |
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OBSERVED M4.1 Observed Date/Location South Island, NZ
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No. 9 North Island Region
PREDICTED M5.2 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 15 Mar '08 15-25 Mar (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0353 hrs UTC (time window open to 25 March, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >85% within ≈400 km of Rotorua
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Revision nil
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OBSERVED M5.0 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 96.1% 17 March, Lat -39.29° Lon 174.58° Predicted 2 days ahead 220 km N of Wellington North Island, NZ
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No. 8 North Island Region
PREDICTED M5.5 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 1 Mar '08 1-11 Mar (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0403 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 11 Mar) Probability of event >90% within 400 km of Rotorua
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REVISION nil
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OBSERVED M5.6 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 98.2% 1 March, Lat -35.722° Lon 179.704° (USGS) Predicted 18 hours ahead 408 km NE of Rotorua (Google Earth) Occurred at 2255 hrs East of North Island, NZ |
No. 7 South Island - North of Ashburton
PREDICTED M5.0 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 1 Mar '08 1-11 Mar (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0130 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 11 Mar) Probability of event >90% Southern Canterbury to Nelson Region
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REVISED to M3.0 Expected Dates Revised at 0503 hrs on 9 Mar 9-11 March Updated range M2.4-M3.4
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NIL RESULT - This was our first attempted prediction for this specific region.
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No.6 South Island - Ashburton to Invercargill Region
PREDICTED M4.5 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 1 Mar '08 1-11 Mar (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0505 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 11 Mar) Probability of event >95% Ashburton to Invercargill Region
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REVISED to M3.8 Expected Dates Revised at 0450 hrs on 9 Mar 9-11 March Updated range M3.3-4.3
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NIL RESULT - M4.3 occurred on 15 March, 4 days 'late', in the Fiordland Region. This was our first attempted prediction for this specific region.
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No. 5
PREDICTED M4.4 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 14 Feb '08 14-24 February (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0617 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 24 Feb) Probability of event >95% as newly defined above, mostly North Island |
REVISION nil
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OBSERVED M5.0 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 88% 23 February, Lat 37.34 °S Lon 177.77°E Predicted 10 days ahead Bay of Plenty (occurred 1834 hrs, UTC) 270 km E of Auckland
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No. 4
PREDICTED M5.0 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 3 Feb '08 3-5 February (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0940 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 13 Feb) Probability of event >90% as newly defined above, mostly North Island |
REVISION nil
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| OBSERVED M4.6 Observed Date/Location
Magnitude accuracy 92% 7 February '08 Lat 38.9°S, Lon 175.25°E
Predicted 4 days ahead 230 S of Auckland, 80 km W of Taupo North Island, New Zealand |
No. 3
PREDICTED M4.3 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 18 Jan '08 18-28 January (UTC) '08 Predicted at 1005 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 28 Jan) Probability of event >90% as newly defined above, mostly North Island |
REVIEWS nil
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OBSERVED M4.5 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 95.6% 28 January '08 Predicted 10 days ahead 20 km N of Metawai, Lat 38.21 S, Lon 177.51 E Bay of Plenty, North Island ________________________________ Note: M4.3 also occurred on 24 January in the Bay of Plenty on the North Island near Matata. |
No. 2
PREDICTED M5.8 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 7 Jan '08 7-17 January (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0020 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 17 Jan) Probability of event ≥88%
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REVISED to M4.9 Expected Date/Location Revised at 0125 hrs on 10 January 10-17 January '08 Updated range M4.2-M5.2 North Island Region? |
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OBSERVED M4.2 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 85.7% 16 January '08 Predicted 6 days ahead Lat 38.84 S, Lon 172.8 E, 30 km S of Gisborne, North Island ____________________________________ Note: M4.3 also occurred 110 km S of Nelson on 10 Jan (South Is.) Lat 42.21 S, Lon 172.8 E |
No. 1
PREDICTED M5.0 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 11 Dec '07 11-15 December (UTC) '07 Predicted at 0505 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 21 Dec) Probability of event >90%
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REVISION not made - please see note below table |
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OBSERVED M6.8 Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 73.5% 20 December '07 Lat 38.86 S, Lon 178.52 E, 50 km SE Gisborne North Island Region
SPECIAL NOTE: In hindsight, the modeling used here accurately predicted both the magnitude and timing (within a day) of this important M6.8 earthquake, but not the Gisborne location as the modeling is currently regional in scope. The failure to predict in this particular instance came not from the modeling, but from a regrettable failure in giving updated reports throughout the entire 10-day window.
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