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Earthquake Predictions
Mexico to
Guatemala Region
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Aztec Calendar, © copyright Soren Pilman, iStockphoto Inc. All rights reserved.
THE MEXICO AND GUATEMALA REGIONS
are newly defined (for all predictions after 6 April 2008) and treated separately as the following two areas, ignoring political boundaries:
1. THE MEXICO REGION is now represented by its two most seismically active areas:
(a) 'The Colima Region' includes the earthquake-prone coastal states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, and the NW sector of Guerrero, an area enclosed by an arc sweeping
SW from Mexico City (Ciudad de México), crossing the coast of Guerrero at about 120 km NW of Acapulco. The southwest quadrant of this region takes in almost all earthquake events that occur off the above coasts.
The region has a radius of about 450 km and is centered on the city of Guadalajara Lat 20.72° Lon -103.38°, 465 km WNW of Mexico City and 160 km north from the city of Colima.
The northern half of 'The Colima Region' has few earthquakes, but the southern half has experienced 5 major earthquakes:
M7.5 in 1973 (Michoacán), M7.6 in 1979 (Guerrero), M8.0 in 1995 (Colima), M7.2 in 1997 (Michoacán) and M7.6 in 2003 (Off Colima).
Source USGS/Google Earth
(b) 'The Oaxaca Region' now includes all areas within a radius* of approximately 350 km from Oaxaca, Oaxaca at
Lat 17.05° Lon -96.72°. This region includes the earthquake-prone coastal states from Acapulco, Guerrero, down through Oaxaca
to NW Chiapas. The center of the region includes inland Puebla (200 km SE of Mexico City) which experienced an M7 in 1999. The northern arc includes Veracruz on the north coast and sweeps around through Mexico City to cross the southern coast just above Acapulco, thence out to sea covering the important offshore events before sweeping back through the northern part of Chiapas.
The region has experienced at least 8 major earthquakes:
M7.3 in 1965 (Oaxaca), M7.1 in 1968 (Oaxaca), M7.7 in 1978 (Oaxaca), M7.4 in Sept.1995 (Guerrero), M7.2 in Oct. 1995 (Chiapas), M7.1 in 1996 (Offshore Oaxaca), and M7.5 in 1999 (Oaxaca). Puebla's M7.0 also occurred in 1999. Source USGS/Google Earth
2. THE GUATEMALA REGION - newly defined (6 April '08)
to be within ≈275 km radius* of Guatemala City (Lat 14.62°N,
Lon -90.53°W), including south-eastern Chiapas, Mexico, and most of Guatemala and El Salvador, and their offshore areas.
This region, as defined, has experienced 5 major earthquakes:
M7.3 in 1970 (Offshore Chiapas), M7.5 in 1976 (Guatemala),
M7.0 in 1982 (Offshore El Salvador), M7.1 in 1983 (Offshore Guatemala), and M7.7 in 2001 (Offshore El Salvador).
Source USGS/Google Earth
*The radius of each of these regions has an additional error margin of ≈10% in order to include earthquake events close to the nominated regional boundaries.
Each earthquake prediction table (scroll down) will make it
clear as to which of the above regions is under study.
The new regions above allow for greater focus and relevance of earthquake predictions, and has been made possible by the author's latest research which continually aims to improve predictions.
For the record, from 20 February to 6 April 2008, the Mexico region was defined as only those areas within approximately a 500 km radius of Acapulco at Lat 16.84°N and Lon 99.91°W. Prior to that, from 5-20 February 2008, the region extended from latitude 24°in the north of Mexico (including the tip of Baja, CA) down to the southern border of Guatemala, while prior to 5 February the Mexico Region was defined as extending from the Gulf of California in northern Mexico down to Costa Rica along the northeast edge of the Cocos Plate. Also for the record, the Guatemala Region has been reduced by about 60% (after 6 April 2008), from a radius of 500 km down to 275 km from Guatemala City.
All earthquake predictions for Mexico and Guatemala are for the largest earthquake in the nominated 10-day period, plus an error margin of about one day, but no attempt is made to make forecasts for all periods because of the constraints of private research. Each table, with its original earthquake prediction, will remain subject to revisions or updates for 10 days.
Why updates may be necessary... because earthquakes interact in a very dynamic system. Just as in reporting the weather, the latest information must be taken into account to improve forecasting.
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SCROLL DOWN FOR TABLES
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STATISTICS FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION For period 13 August 2007 - 12 July 2008 (256 predictions)
SUCCESS RATES*
Mag Observed Events Predicted Events
(How many predicted?) (How many observed?)
Pred. Obs. %Correct Obs. Pred. %Correct
<M4 60 67 = 90% 58 66 = 88%
M4.0-4.9 76 85 = 89% 57 60 = 95%
M5.0-5.9 73 77 = 95% 90 96 = 94%
M6.0+ 25 27 = 93% 29 34 = 85%
___________________________________________ *These statistics are updated bi-monthly and refer to tabled predictions only, as no attempt
is made to predict all large earthquakes worldwide. Note that currently successful predictions are those which are ≈80% accurate on magnitude, and within a 10-day time window (plus an error margin of about one day), reflecting the fact that earthquake prediction is still an imprecise science. However, research here is aimed at improving this margin and currently 75% of all magnitude predictions have an error margin of only 15%. Any apparent numerical discrepancies between the two halves of the above table are due to the error margins: for example, an M6 category predicted quake might have come in at M5.8
OVERALL success rate from 256 predictions worldwide-
Observed events that were predicted (234/256) = 91.4%
Predicted events that were observed (234/256) = 91.4%
SCIENTIFIC: Correlation of Predicted & Observed Magnitudes
There is a highly significant correlation (r=0.90, P< .0001) between the full set of observed and predicted magnitudes, including 'false alarms' (Worldwide N=256 as of 12 July 2008).
EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION TABLES
M= Earthquake magnitude. See HOME page for further explanation of table entries.
Earthquake Location Maps - see the USGS web site for maps of earthquakes in these tables.
New 3-layer Table Format & Prediction Rules (25 Nov 07)
Please read following points to fully explain tables below:
1. The Original Earthquake Prediction, and details relating to it, are given in the top light blue layer of each table.
The 'expected date' (or dates) given here provide the best current estimate of when the largest earthquake event is most likely within the nominated 10-day window (date prediction made +10, or possibly ≈11 days). Please note that the time window now includes an error margin of ≈1 day which may extend it to include some closely predicted events, reflecting the fact that earthquake prediction is an imprecise science. The above estimates and other details may be updated, if necessary, in the next section of the table.
The Expected Range in Magnitude, for each event after 14th July 2008, is given as the predicted magnitude +/-1 magnitude (previously it was given as +/-0.5M). Statistical analyses of over 100 of the latest predictions show that 95% of them can be expected to fall within +/-1M of the predicted values, regardless of the region of the world involved. From 14th July 2008, any predictions which fall outside these limits by as little as 0.1M will be regarded as unsuccessful.
2. Revisions, if required, are given in the mid blue layer of each table, and these revisions are used in the final assessments of the results. Please see the statement above explaining why updates are desirable, and note that revisions are limited to a 10-day window. Revisions usually relate to
earthquake magnitude and expected timing, but may also include location.
3. The Observed Earthquake and details (for the event we were attempting to predict) are given in the bottom dark blue layer of each table. The event recorded here is the largest earthquake for the nominated 10-11 day period. 'PENDING...' simply means that the anticipated event has not yet happened, or that we are waiting for the event to be posted on the web site.
MEXICO & GUATEMALA
THREE tables (Colima, Oaxaca, Guatemala) may be running concurrently, so please scroll down.
See also Long-term Forecasts
No. 23 GUATEMALA REGION
PREDICTED M5.0 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 24 June 24-30 June (UTC) 2008 Predicted at 0318 hrs UTC (time window open to 2nd July) Probability of event >90% within ≈275 km of Guatemala City
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| OBSERVED M5.6 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 89.3% 29 June at 14.469° Lon -92.751° Predicted 5 days ahead 240 km W of Guatemala City Offshore Chiapas, Mex. |
No. 22 GUATEMALA REGION
PREDICTED M5.0 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 9 June 2008 9-18 June (UTC) Predicted at 0538 hrs UTC (time window open to 18 June, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >90% within ≈275 km of Guatemala City
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REVISION nil
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| OBSERVED M4.8 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 96% 9th June at 7:33:34 hrs Lat 13.533° Lon -90.606° Predicted about 2 hrs ahead 120 km S of Guatemala City Offshore Guatemala |
No. 21 GUATEMALA REGION
PREDICTED M6.3 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 25 May '08 25-26 May (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0838 hrs UTC (time window open to 4 June, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >90% within ≈275 km of Guatemala City
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REVISION nil |
| OBSERVED M5.7 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 90.5% 27 May at Lat 13.71° Lon -90.92° Predicted 2 days ahead 110 SSW of Guatemala City Offshore Guatemala |
No. 20 MEXICO - 'COLIMA REGION'
PREDICTED M5.4 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 25 May '08 25-30 May (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0410 hrs UTC (time window open to 4 June, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >90% within ≈450 km of Guadalajara
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REVISION nil
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OBSERVED M3.5 Observed Date/Location
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No. 19 MEXICO - 'COLIMA REGION'
PREDICTED M4.5 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 20 Apr '08 20-30 Apr (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0144 hrs UTC (time window open to 30 April, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >90% within ≈450 km of Guadalajara
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REVISION - the event below has been revised since 28 April.
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OBSERVED M5.4 Observed Date/Location 'Colima Region' |
No. 18 MEXICO - 'OAXACA REGION'
PREDICTED M5.0 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 20 Apr '08 20-30 Apr (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0136 hrs UTC (time window open to 30 April, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >90% within ≈350 km of Oaxaca, Oaxaca
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REVISION nil
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| OBSERVED M5.8 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 86.3% 28 April, Lat 18.02° Lon -99.94° Predicted 8 days ahead 175 SSW of Mexico City (USGS) 358 km WNW of Oaxaca, Oaxaca (Google Earth) |
No. 17 GUATEMALA REGION
PREDICTED M6.0 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 20 Apr '08 20-30 Apr (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0157 hrs UTC (time window open to 30 April, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >85% within ≈275 km of Guatemala City
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REVISED to M5.0 Expected dates Revised at 0738 hrs on 27 April 27-30 April, plus ≈1 day margin |
| OBSERVED M4.8 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 96.0% 27 April at 09:51:55 hrs, Lat 13.28° Lon -91.78° Predicted 2 hrs 14 min ahead 200 km SW of Guatemala City Offshore Guatemala |
No. 16 MEXICO - 'OAXACA REGION'
PREDICTED M4.2 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 8 Apr '08 8-18 Apr (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0003 hrs UTC (time window open to 18 April, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >85% within ≈150 km of Copala
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REVISION nil
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OBSERVED M4.4 Observed Date/Location
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No.15 GUATEMALA REGION
PREDICTED M5.0 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 6 Apr '08 6-11 Apr (UTC) '08 Predicted at 2224 hrs UTC (time window open to 16 April, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >85% within ≈500 km of Guatemala City
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REVISION if needed is posted here
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OBSERVED M6.1 Observed Date/Location Predicted 9 days ahead 119 km S from Guatemala City Offshore Guatemala |
No.14 MEXICO REGION
PREDICTED M4.2 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 24 Mar '08 24 March- 3 April (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0613 hrs UTC (time window open to 3 Apr, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >85% within ≈500 km radius of Acapulco
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REVISION nil |
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OBSERVED M3.9 Observed Date/Location Predicted 5 days ahead Nr Coast of Oaxaca, Mex. |
No.13 GUATEMALA REGION including Chiapas, Mex.
PREDICTED M5.7 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 22 Mar '08 22-23 Mar (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0850 hrs UTC (time window open to 1 Apr, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >85% within ≈500 km of Guatemala City
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REVISED to M5.2 Expected Dates Revised at 0547 hrs on 24 March 24-28 March, but open to 1 Apr as above Updated Range M4.5-M5.5 |
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OBSERVED M4.4 Observed Date/Location |
No. 12 MEXICO REGION
PREDICTED M5.4 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 8 Mar '08 8-10 Mar (UTC) '08 Predicted at 2052 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 18 Mar) Probability of event >85% within 500 km of Acapulco
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REVISED to M5.0 Expected Date/Location Revised at 0006 hrs on 12 March 12-18 March Updated range M4.5-M5.5 within 500 km of Acapulco
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OBSERVED M4.1 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 82% 13 March, Lat 16.36° Lon -99.09° Predicted one day ahead 340 km S from Mexico City Offshore Guerrero, Mexico
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No. 11 GUATEMALA REGION
PREDICTED M6.4 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 23 Feb '08 23-25 Feb (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0025 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 4 Mar) Probability of event >75% within 500 km of Guatemala City
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REVISED to M5.0 Expected Dates 3-4 March Revised at 0405 hrs on 3 March Probability of event >90% Updated range M4.0-M5.5
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OBSERVED M4.3 Observed Date/Location 3 days late... 170 km SW Guatemala City |
No. 10 MEXICO REGION
PREDICTED M4.9 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 23 Feb '08 23 Feb-4 Mar (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0025 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 4 Mar) Probability of event >95% within 500 km of Acapulco
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REVISION nil
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OBSERVED M4.5 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 91.8% 1 March '08, Lat 17.233° Lon -99.872° Predicted 7 days ahead 255 SSW of Mexico City Guerrero, Mexico |
No. 9
PREDICTED M5.5 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 5 Feb '08 5-15 Feb (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0905 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 15 Feb) Probability of event >90%
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REVISIONS nil
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OBSERVED M6.4 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 85.9% 12 February at Lat 16.41° Lon -94.16° Predicted 7 days ahead 625 km ESE of Mexico City Oaxaca, Mexico |
No. 8
PREDICTED M5.4 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 22 Jan '08 22-31 January (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0928 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 31 Jan) Probability of event >90%
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REVIEWS nil
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OBSERVED M5.4 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 100% 23 January '08 at 0549 hrs Predicted over 20 hrs ahead Off Coast Chiapas, Mex.
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No. 7
PREDICTED M6.8 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 5 Jan '08 5-15 January (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0440 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 15 Jan) Probability of event >75% Guatemala Region? |
REVISED to M4.6 Expected Date/Location Revised at 0152 hrs on 10 January 10-15 January UTC Updated Range M4.4-M5.5 Chiapas Region? Probability of event >88% |
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OBSERVED M4.8 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 95.8% 10 January '08 (UTC) at 1804 hrs Predicted 16 hrs ahead Lat 14.46, Lon -89.75 Guatemala
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No. 6
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