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Earthquake Predictions
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© 2007 Andy Hwang, iStockphotos Inc. All rights reserved.
THE JAPAN REGION is newly defined as of 21 April
2008 and for the purpose of these predictions will now include
both the main islands as follows:
(1) HONSHU REGION - within ≈500 km* of Tokyo (no change
since 17 February 2008). Previously, for the record, between 4 Dec 2007-
17 Feb 2008. events were accepted if they fell within a 1250 km radius of Tokyo. The new region is only 16% of the former area and it is expected that this greater focus will lead to more accurate and relevant predictions for Japan's most populated region. Tokyo's coodinates are Lat 35.66°, Lon 139.82°.
This region has experienced 10 major earthquakes since 1962
as follows: M7.0 (Apr 1962), M7.0 (May 1964), M7.4 (June 1964), M7.0 (June 1968), M7.7 (June 1978), M7.0 (May 2003), M7.2 and M7.4 (both in Sept 2004), M7.2 (Aug 2005), and M7.0 (Nov 2005). Source USGS/Google Earth
(2) HOKKAIDO REGION - within ≈400 km* of Yubetsu on the north coast, Lat 44.22° Lon 143.62°.
This Japanese region, which includes the lower Kuril Islands, has experienced 15 major earthquakes and 2 great earthquakes since 1961 as follows: M7.0 (Aug 1961), M7.0 (Nov 1961), M7.0 (Apr 1962), M7.0 (June1964), M7.9 (May 1968), M7.8 (Aug 1969), M7.7 (June 17,1973), M7.1 (June 24, 1973), M7.0 (June 1975), M7.5 (Mar 23, 1978), M7.6 (Mar 24,1978), M7.0 (Feb 1980), M8.1 (Oct 4, 1994), M7.1 (Oct 9, 1994), M8.3 and M7.4 (both on Sept 25, 2003), and M7.0 (Nov 2004).
Source USGS/Google Earth
*The radius of each region has an ≈10% error margin of about 50 km to include
events close to the nominated boundary of each region.
All earthquake predictions for the Japan Region are
for the largest earthquake in the nominated 10-day period, plus
an error margin of about one day, but no attempt is made to make forecasts for all periods because of the constraints of private research. Each table, with
its original earthquake prediction, will remain subject to revisions or
updates for 10 days.
Why updates may be necessary... because earthquakes
interact in a very dynamic system. Just as in reporting the
weather, the latest information must be taken into account to improve forecasting.
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SCROLL DOWN FOR TABLES
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STATISTICS FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION For period 13 August 2007 - 12 July 2008 (256 predictions)
SUCCESS RATES*
Mag Observed Events Predicted Events
(How many predicted?) (How many observed?)
Pred. Obs. %Correct Obs. Pred. %Correct
<M4 60 67 = 90% 58 66 = 88%
M4.0-4.9 76 85 = 89% 57 60 = 95%
M5.0-5.9 73 77 = 95% 90 96 = 94%
M6.0+ 25 27 = 93% 29 34 = 85%
___________________________________________ *These statistics are updated bi-monthly and refer to tabled predictions only, as no attempt
is made to predict all large earthquakes worldwide. Note that currently successful predictions are those which are ≈80% accurate on magnitude, and within a 10-day time window (plus an error margin of about one day), reflecting the fact that earthquake prediction is still an imprecise science. However, research here is aimed at improving this margin and currently 75% of all magnitude predictions have an error margin of only 15%. Any apparent numerical discrepancies between the two halves of the above table are due to the error margins: for example, an M6 category predicted quake might have come in at M5.8
OVERALL success rate from 256 predictions worldwide-
Observed events that were predicted (234/256) = 91.4%
Predicted events that were observed (234/256) = 91.4%
SCIENTIFIC: Correlation of Predicted & Observed Magnitudes
There is a highly significant correlation (r=0.90, P< .0001) between the full set of observed and predicted magnitudes, including 'false alarms' (Worldwide N=256 as of 12 July 2008).
EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION TABLES
M= Earthquake magnitude. See HOME page for further explanation of table entries.
Earthquake Location Maps - see the USGS web site for maps of earthquakes in these tables.
New 3-layer Table Format & Prediction Rules (25 Nov 07)
Please read following points to fully explain tables below:
1. The Original Earthquake Prediction, and details relating to it, are given in the top light blue layer of each table.
The 'expected date' (or dates) given here provide the best current estimate of when the largest earthquake event is most likely within the nominated 10-day window (date prediction made +10, or possibly ≈11 days). Please note that the time window now includes an error margin of ≈1 day which may extend it to include some closely predicted events, reflecting the fact that earthquake prediction is an imprecise science. The above estimates and other details may be updated, if necessary, in the next section of the table.
The Expected Range in Magnitude, for each event after 14th July 2008, is given as the predicted magnitude +/-1 magnitude (previously it was given as +/-0.5M). Statistical analyses of over 100 of the latest predictions show that 95% of them can be expected to fall within +/-1M of the predicted values, regardless of the region of the world involved. From 14th July 2008, any predictions which fall outside these limits by as little as 0.1M will be regarded as unsuccessful.
2. Revisions, if required, are given in the mid blue layer of each table, and these revisions are used in the final assessments of the results. Please see the statement above explaining why updates are desirable, and note that revisions are limited to a 10-day window. Revisions usually relate to
earthquake magnitude and expected timing, but may also include location.
3. The Observed Earthquake and details (for the event we were attempting to predict) are given in the bottom dark blue layer of each table. The event recorded here is the largest earthquake for the nominated 10-11 day period. 'PENDING...' simply means that the anticipated event has not yet happened, or that we are waiting for the event to be posted on the web site.
JAPAN REGION
Two tables may be concurrent so please scroll down
See also Long-term Forecasts
No. 23 Honshu Region
PREDICTED M5.8 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 27 Aug 27-29 Aug (UTC) 2008 Predicted at 0105 hrs UTC (time window open to 6th Sept ) Probability of event >90% within ≈500 km of Tokyo
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OBSERVED M5.3 Observed Date/Location |
No. 22 Hokkaido Region
PREDICTED M6.5 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 11 July 11-21 July (UTC) 2008 Predicted at 0642 hrs UTC (time window open to 21st July, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >85% within ≈400 km of Yubetsu, North Coast
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REVISED to M5.2 Expected Date/Location
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OBSERVED M4.7 Observed Date/Location |
No. 21 Hokkaido Region
PREDICTED M5.0 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 24 June 24-30 June (UTC) 2008 Predicted at 0425 hrs UTC (time window open to 2nd July) Probability of event >90% within ≈400 km of Yubetsu, North Coast
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OBSERVED M5.5 Observed Date/Location |
No. 20 Honshu Region
PREDICTED M5.7 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 18 June 18-28 June (UTC) 2008 Predicted at 0647 hrs UTC (time window open to 28 June, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >90% within ≈500 km of Tokyo
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| OBSERVED M4.7 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 82.4% 26 June at Lat 38.837° Lon 140.569° Predicted 8 days ahead 360 km NNE from Tokyo Eastern Honshu |
No. 19 Honshu Region
PREDICTED M5.3 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 22 May '08 22-24 May (UTC) '08 Predicted at 2306 hrs UTC (time window open to 1 June, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >90% within ≈500 km of Tokyo
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REVISED to M5.0 Expected Dates |
| OBSERVED M4.7 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 94.0% May 28 at 39.104° Lon 140.488° Predicted two days ahead 385 km N of Tokyo Eastern Honshu |
No. 18 Honshu Region
PREDICTED M5.0 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 20 Apr '08 20-24 Apr (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0050 hrs UTC (time window open to 30 April, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >90% within ≈500 km of Tokyo
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REVISION nil
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| OBSERVED M5.2 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 96.2% 23 April, Lat 33.552° Lon 141.021° (USGS) Predicted 3 days ahead 260 km SSE from Tokyo Off East Coast of Honshu |
No. 17 Hokkaido Region
PREDICTED M5.0 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 21 Apr '08 21 Apr- 1 May (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0318 hrs UTC (time window open to 1st May, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >90% within ≈400 km of Yubetsu, North Coast
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REVISION nil
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| OBSERVED M5.8 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 86.2% 29 April, Lat 41.479° Lon 141.966° (USGS) Predicted 8 days ahead 107 ESE of Hakodate, Hokkaido Hokkaido Region |
No. 16
PREDICTED M6.6 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 6 Apr '08 6-7 Apr(UTC) '08 Predicted at 2310 hrs UTC (time window open to 16 April, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >70% within ≈500 km of Tokyo
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REVISED to M5.5 Expected Dates Updated range M5.0-M6.0 Probability of event >85% |
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OBSERVED M5.8 Observed Dates
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No. 15
PREDICTED M5.7 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 24 Mar '08 24-26 Mar (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0205 hrs UTC (time window open to 3 Apr, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >85% within ≈500 km of Tokyo
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REVISIONS nil
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OBSERVED M5.3 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 93.0% 24 March, 03:40:11 hrs, Lat 37.12° Lon 141.27° Predicted 1 hr 35 min ahead 220 km NE of Tokyo Nr East Coast Honshu
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No. 14
PREDICTED M6.6 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 8 Mar '08 8-11 Mar (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0332 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 18 Mar + 1 day margin) Probability of event >80%
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REVISED to M5.3 Expected Dates/Location Revised at 0025 hrs on 12 March 12-18 March (+ 1 day error margin) Probability of event >85% within 500 km of Tokyo Updated range M4.7-M5.7 Japan Region
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OBSERVED M4.8 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 90.6% 16 March, Lat 31.884° Lon 142.208° Predicted 4 days ahead 475 km SSE of Tokyo Izu Islands Region
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No. 13
PREDICTED M5.0 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 18 Feb '08 18-28 February (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0928 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 28 Feb) Probability of event >90%
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REVIEWS nil
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OBSERVED M5.0 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 100% 21 February, Lat 33.663N, Lon 140.385E Predicted 3 days ahead 230 km SSE of Tokyo Izu Islands, Japan
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No. 12
PREDICTED M5.4 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 5 Feb '08 5-15 Feb (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0330 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 15 Feb) Probability of event >90%
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REVISED to M6.3 Expected Date/Location Revised 0136 hrs UTC on 13 Feb 13-15 February Revised Range M5.0-M7.0 possibly in Honshu area Probability of event >75% Japan Region |
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OBSERVED M4.9 Observed date/Location Magnitude accuracy 78% 14 February, Lat 40.90, Lon 142.48 (EMSC) (compared to M6.3 in revision above) 635 NNE of Tokyo, Japan Nr E Coast Honshu ________________________________ NOTE: M5.3 also occurred at 0037 hrs on 10 February near the East Coast of Honshu indicating a strong possibility of M6.3 to follow (as is shown in the revised section of the table above), however, this M6.3 earthquake failed to eventuate. |
No. 11
PREDICTED M6.3 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 22 Jan '08 22-31 January (UTC) '08 Predicted at 2205 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 31 Jan) Probability of event >74% Hokkaido Region? |
REVISED to M5.2 Expected Date/Location Revised at 0515 hrs on 29 Jan UTC 29-31 January Updated Range M4.8-M5.8 Honshu Region?
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OBSERVED M4.7 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 90.4% 31 January '08 Predicted 2 days ahead Nr East Coast Honshu Lat 38.45 N, Lon 142.30 E (EMSC) |
No. 10
PREDICTED M6.3 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 9 Jan '08 9-19 January (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0115 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 19 Jan) Probability of event >73% Honshu Region? |
REVISED to M6.0 Expected Date/Location Updated range M5.5-M6.5 13-19 January Revised at 0335 hrs on 13 Jan (UTC) Honshu Region? |
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OBSERVED M5.4 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 90% 18 January, Lat 25.20N, Lon 140.85 E Predicted 5 days ahead 1170 km South of Tokyo Volcano Islands
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No. 9
PREDICTED M6.2 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 21 Dec '07 21-24 December (UTC) '07 Predicted at 1040 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 31 Dec) Probability of event >67% |
REVIEWS nil
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| OBSERVED M6.0 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 96.8% 25 December '07 Lat 38.5 Lon 141.97 Predicted 4 days ahead Nr East Coast Honshu |
No. 8
PREDICTED M6.0 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 9 Dec '07 9-14 December (UTC) '07 Predicted at 2135 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 19 Dec) Probability of event >80%
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REVISED to M5.8 Expected Date/Location Revised at 0655 hrs on 16 Dec 16-19 December '07 Updated range M5.4-M6.2 within 1250 km of Tokyo JAPAN REGION Honshu area? |
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OBSERVED M4.8 Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 80.0% 16 Dec '07, Lat 40.18, Lon 144.8 Occurred before above revision and Off East Coast Honshu thus is compared with M6.0 above |
No. 7
PREDICTED M6.8 Expected Date/Location Original prediction, 27 Nov '07 27-30 November (UTC) '07 Predicted at 0915 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 7 Dec) Probability of event >80%
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REVISED to M6.4 Expected Date/Location New revision at 0115 hrs on 6 Dec |