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Earthquake Predictions
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© 2007 Andy Hwang, iStockphotos Inc. All rights reserved.
THE JAPAN REGION is currently represented by two
sub-regions involving the main islands as follows:
(1) HONSHU REGION (Central to Southern Region)
Newly defined on 1st September 2009 as within ≈500 km* of center 248 km SSE of Nagoya, Honshu, at Lat 33.144 and Lon 138.040.
This region, which includes Tokyo, has experienced 5 major earthquakes since 1962 as follows: M7.0 (Mar 1978), M7.1 (Aug 1998), M7.4 (Aug 2000),
M7.2 and M7.4 (both in Sept 2004)
Source USGS/Google Earth
(2) HOKKAIDO REGION - within ≈500 km* of Yubetsu on the north coast, Lat 44.22° Lon 143.62°.
This Japanese region, which includes the lower Kuril Islands, has experienced 15 major earthquakes and 2 great earthquakes since 1961 as follows: M7.0 (Aug 1961), M7.0 (Nov 1961), M7.0 (Apr 1962), M7.0 (June1964), M7.9 (May 1968), M7.8 (Aug 1969), M7.7 (June 17,1973), M7.1 (June 24, 1973), M7.0 (June 1975), M7.5 (Mar 23, 1978), M7.6 (Mar 24,1978), M7.0 (Feb 1980), M8.1 (Oct 4, 1994), M7.1 (Oct 9, 1994), M8.3 and M7.4 (both on Sept 25, 2003), and M7.0 (Nov 2004).
Source USGS/Google Earth
*The radius of each region has an ≈10% error margin of about 50 km to include
events close to the nominated boundary of each region.
All earthquake predictions for the Japan Region are for the largest earthquake in the nominated period, plus an error margin
of about one day, but no attempt is made to make forecasts for all periods because of the constraints of private research. Each table, with its original earthquake prediction, will remain subject to revisions or updates for 10 days.
Why updates may be necessary... because earthquakes
interact in a very dynamic system. Just as in reporting the
weather, the latest information must be taken into account to improve forecasting.
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SCROLL DOWN FOR TABLES
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STATISTICS FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION For period 13 August 2007 - 12 July 2008 (256 predictions)
SUCCESS RATES*
Mag Observed Events Predicted Events
(How many predicted?) (How many observed?)
Pred. Obs. %Correct Obs. Pred. %Correct
<M4 60 67 = 90% 58 66 = 88%
M4.0-4.9 76 85 = 89% 57 60 = 95%
M5.0-5.9 73 77 = 95% 90 96 = 94%
M6.0+ 25 27 = 93% 29 34 = 85%
___________________________________________ *These statistics are updated periodically and refer to tabled predictions only, as no attempt
is made to predict all large earthquakes worldwide. Note that currently successful predictions are those which are ≈80% accurate on magnitude, and within a 10-day time window (plus an error margin of about one day), reflecting the fact that earthquake prediction is still an imprecise science. However, research here is aimed at improving this margin and currently 75% of all magnitude predictions have an error margin of only 15%. Any apparent numerical discrepancies between the two halves of the above table are due to the error margins: for example, an M6 category predicted quake might have come in at M5.8
OVERALL success rate from 256 predictions worldwide-
Observed events that were predicted (234/256) = 91.4%
Predicted events that were observed (234/256) = 91.4%
SCIENTIFIC: Correlation of Predicted & Observed Magnitudes
There is a highly significant correlation (r=0.90, P< .0001) between the full set of observed and predicted magnitudes, including 'false alarms' (Worldwide N=256 as of 12 July 2008).
EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION TABLES
M= Earthquake magnitude. See HOME page for further explanation of table entries.
Earthquake Location Maps - see the USGS web site for maps of earthquakes in these tables.
New 3-layer Table Format & Prediction Rules (25 Nov 07)
Please read following points to fully explain tables below:
1. The Original Earthquake Prediction, and details relating to it, are given in the top light blue layer of each table.
The 'expected date' (or dates) given here provide the best current estimate of when the largest earthquake event is most likely within the nominated 10-day window (date prediction made +10, or possibly ≈11 days). Please note that the time window now includes an error margin of ≈1 day which may extend it to include some closely predicted events, reflecting the fact that earthquake prediction is an imprecise science. The above estimates and other details may be updated, if necessary, in the next section of the table.
The Expected Range in Magnitude, for each event after 14th July 2008, is given as the predicted magnitude +/-1 magnitude (previously it was given as +/-0.5M). Statistical analyses of over 100 of the latest predictions show that 95% of them can be expected to fall within +/-1M of the predicted values, regardless of the region of the world involved. From 14th July 2008, any predictions which fall outside these limits by as little as 0.1M will be regarded as unsuccessful.
2. Revisions, if required, are given in the mid blue layer of each table, and these revisions are used in the final assessments of the results. Please see the statement above explaining why updates are desirable, and note that revisions are limited to a 10-day window. Revisions usually relate to
earthquake magnitude and expected timing, but may also include location.
3. The Observed Earthquake and details (for the event we were attempting to predict) are given in the bottom dark blue layer of each table. The event recorded here is the largest earthquake for the nominated 10-11 day period. 'PENDING...' simply means that the anticipated event has not yet happened, or that we are waiting for the event to be posted on the web site.
JAPAN REGION
Two tables may be concurrent so please scroll down
See also Long-term Forecasts
These Long-term Forecasts now give the approximate timing of the largest regional earthquakes for the lunar month ahead.
The Short-term tables below will be used to make revisable and, generally, more precise earthquake predictions for some of the important events that are indicated as being imminent in the Long-term Forecasts.
No. 27 Hokkaido Region
PREDICTED M4.8 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 27 Jan February 1st +/-3 days (UTC) 2009 Predicted at 2104 hrs UTC (time window open to 5th February) Probability of event >85% within 500 km of Yubetsu
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| OBSERVED M4.6 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 95.8% 2nd February at Lat 40.32 Lon 143.88 Predicted 6 days ahead 370 km SE of Sapporo, Hokkaido (USGS/NEIC & Google Earth sources) Hokkaido, Japan |
No. 26 Honshu Region
PREDICTED M5.0 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 16 Jan 16-25 January (UTC) 2009 Predicted at 0944 hrs UTC (time window open to 25th January) Probability of event >90% within 500 km of Tokyo
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OBSERVED M4.9 Observed Date/Location |
Previous tables have been deleted to save space
km ESE from Pt. and