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Earthquake Predictions
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Raging surf, Waimea Bay, Hawaii. © 2005 Charles Babbitt iStockphotos Inc. All rights reserved
The Hawaii Region is now defined (5 April, 2008) as those
areas within only 250 km radius* of the Mauna Lani Resort on the
Island of Hawaii (Lat 19.94° Lon -155.86), extending to Honolulu.
Previously the region was defined as all those areas within a radius ≈500 km from Honolulu (Lat 21.31°N, Lon 157.86°W). The new focus will make earthquake predictions more relevant to the most seismically active region around the island of Hawaii and the volcano Mauna Loa.
*The radius is now 250 km plus an ≈10% error margin of about 25 km in order to
include earthquake events that may occur close to the regional boundary.
All earthquake predictions for the Hawaii Region are for the largest earthquake in the nominated 10-day period, plus an error margin of about one day, but no attempt is made to make forecasts for all periods because of the constraints of private research. Each table, with its original earthquake prediction, will remain subject to revisions or updates for 10 days.
Why updates may be necessary... because earthquakes interact in a very dynamic system. Just as in reporting the weather, the latest information must be taken into account to improve forecasting.
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SCROLL DOWN FOR TABLES
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STATISTICS FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION For period 13 August 2007 - 12 July 2008 (256 predictions)
SUCCESS RATES*
Mag Observed Events Predicted Events
(How many predicted?) (How many observed?)
Pred. Obs. %Correct Obs. Pred. %Correct
<M4 60 67 = 90% 58 66 = 88%
M4.0-4.9 76 85 = 89% 57 60 = 95%
M5.0-5.9 73 77 = 95% 90 96 = 94%
M6.0+ 25 27 = 93% 29 34 = 85%
___________________________________________ *These statistics are updated bi-monthly and refer to tabled predictions only, as no attempt
is made to predict all large earthquakes worldwide. Note that currently successful predictions are those which are ≈80% accurate on magnitude, and within a 10-day time window (plus an error margin of about one day), reflecting the fact that earthquake prediction is still an imprecise science. However, research here is aimed at improving this margin and currently 75% of all magnitude predictions have an error margin of only 15%. Any apparent numerical discrepancies between the two halves of the above table are due to the error margins: for example, an M6 category predicted quake might have come in at M5.8
OVERALL success rate from 256 predictions worldwide-
Observed events that were predicted (234/256) = 91.4%
Predicted events that were observed (234/256) = 91.4%
SCIENTIFIC: Correlation of Predicted & Observed Magnitudes
There is a highly significant correlation (r=0.90, P< .0001) between the full set of observed and predicted magnitudes, including 'false alarms' (Worldwide N=256 as of 12 July 2008).
EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION TABLES
M= Earthquake magnitude. See HOME page for further explanation of table entries.
Earthquake Location Maps - see the USGS web site for maps of earthquakes in these tables.
New 3-layer Table Format & Prediction Rules (25 Nov 07)
Please read following points to fully explain tables below:
1. The Original Earthquake Prediction, and details relating to it, are given in the top light blue layer of each table.
The 'expected date' (or dates) given here provide the best current estimate of when the largest earthquake event is most likely within the nominated 10-day window (date prediction made +10, or possibly ≈11 days). Please note that the time window now includes an error margin of ≈1 day which may extend it to include some closely predicted events, reflecting the fact that earthquake prediction is an imprecise science. The above estimates and other details may be updated, if necessary, in the next section of the table.
The Expected Range in Magnitude, for each event after 14th July 2008, is given as the predicted magnitude +/-1 magnitude (previously it was given as +/-0.5M). Statistical analyses of over 100 of the latest predictions show that 95% of them can be expected to fall within +/-1M of the predicted values, regardless of the region of the world involved. From 14th July 2008, any predictions which fall outside these limits by as little as 0.1M will be regarded as unsuccessful.
2. Revisions, if required, are given in the mid blue layer of each table, and these revisions are used in the final assessments of the results. Please see the statement above explaining why updates are desirable, and note that revisions are limited to a 10-day window. Revisions usually relate to
earthquake magnitude and expected timing, but may also include location.
3. The Observed Earthquake and details (for the event we were attempting to predict) are given in the bottom dark blue layer of each table. The event recorded here is the largest earthquake for the nominated 10-11 day period. 'PENDING...' simply means that the anticipated event has not yet happened, or that we are waiting for the event to be posted on the web site.
HAWAII REGION
See also Long-term Forecasts
No. 12
PREDICTED M3.9 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 20 Apr '08 20-30 Apr (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0122 hrs UTC (time window open to 30 April, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >85% within ≈250 km of Island of Hawaii
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REVISION nil
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OBSERVED M2.9 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 74.4% 29 April, Lat 20.02 ° Lon -155.67° |
No. 11
PREDICTED M3.2 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 8 Apr '08 8-13 Apr (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0052 hrs UTC (time window open to 18 April, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >85% within ≈250 km of Island of Hawaii
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REVISED to M3.5 Expected Date Revised at 0841 hrs on 13 Apr 13 April, but time window open until ≈18th
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OBSERVED M2.9 Observed Date/Location
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No. 10
PREDICTED M3.9 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 24 Mar '08 24-29 Mar (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0526 hrs UTC (time window open to 3 Apr, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >90%
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REVISED to M2.8 Expected Dates |
| OBSERVED M2.5 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 89.3% 5 April at 2:30:32 hrs, Lat 20.87° Lon -155.39° Predicted two days ahead 157 km ESE of Honolulu |
No. 9
PREDICTED M3.2 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 9 Mar '08 9-19 Mar (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0745 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 19 Mar + 1 day margin) Probability of event >90%
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REVISIONS nil
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OBSERVED M3.4 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 94.1% 14 March, Lat 19.428° Lon -155.616 Predicted 5 days ahead Island of Hawaii 311 km SE of Honolulu, HI
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No. 8
PREDICTED M3.2 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 4 Feb '08 4-7 Feb (UTC) '08 Predicted at 1225 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 14 Feb) Probability of event >95%
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REVISIONS nil
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OBSERVED M3.6 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 88.9% 6 February at 1113 hours Predicted 2 days ahead Island of Hawaii |
No. 7
PREDICTED M5.2 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 22 Jan '08 22-31 January (UTC) '08 Predicted at 2304 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 31 Jan) Probability of event >90%
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REVISED to M3.4 Expected Date/Location Revised at 2052 hrs on 30 Jan UTC 30-31 January
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OBSERVED M2.4 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 70.6% January 31, Lat 19.43, Lon -155.40 Volcano, Hawaii
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No. 6
PREDICTED M3.5 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 10 Jan '08 10-20 January (UTC) '08 Predicted at 00030 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 20 Jan) Probability of event >95%
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REVISED to M3.3 Expected Date Revised at 0950 hrs on 13 January 13-20 January |
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OBSERVED M2.9 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 87.9% 16 January Lat 19.29, -155.52 Predicted 3 days ahead 18 km S of Volcano Island of Hawaii _________________________________ Note: M3.2 also occurred only 3hrs 25 minutes 'late' after the time window closed on 20 January. This quake occurred 23 km SE of Waimea, HI, at Lat 19.87, Lon -155.52 on 21 January UTC.. |
No. 5
PREDICTED M3.2 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 14 Dec '07 14-16 December (UTC) '07 Predicted at 2318 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 24 Dec) Probability of event >90% |
REVISED to M3.1 Expected Date Revised at 0055 on 23 Dec UTC 23 - 24 December |
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OBSERVED M2.8 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 87.5% 19 December '07 Lat 19.42 N, 155.62W Predicted 5 days ahead ISLAND OF HAWAII |
No. 4
PREDICTED M3.8 Expected Date/Location Original prediction, 17 Nov '07 17-19 November (UTC) '07 Predicted at 0445 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 27 Nov) Probability of event >75% |
REVISED to M3.1 Expected Date Revised at 0138 hrs on 27 Nov 27 November Updated range M3.0-M3.2 (Time window open until 27 Nov only)
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OBSERVED M2.5 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 80.6% 23 November '07 Pedicted 6 days in advance 16 km N of Kalaoa, HAWAII The largest quake in 10- day window Lat 19.87, Lon -156.04
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No. 3 (Predicted at 0415 hrs on 23 October, 2007)
PREDICTED M5.0 Probability of event>75% Range M4.8-5.2 |
Expected Date/Location Hawaii |
OBSERVED M4.0 |
Observed Date/Location Island of Hawaii Lat 19.33, Lon -155.12
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No. 2 (Predicted at 0500 hrs on 16 October, 2007)
See red updates in table (Revision 2330 hrs on 17 Oct UTC)
PREDICTED M3.0 (Original prediction M3.6) Probability of event >75% Range M2.8-3.2 (Original Range M3.5-3.6) |
Expected Date/Location (Original dates 16-17 October) Hawaii Region |
OBSERVED M3.2 Predicted 5 days ahead. Quake just over 1 hour later than expected 'window' |
Observed Date/Location Lat 19.34, Lon -155.30 |
No. 1 (Predicted on 10 October, 2007)
See red updates in table (Revision 2300 hrs 13 October)
PREDICTED M2.4 (Original Prediction M5.0) Range M1.0 - 2.6 (Original Range M4.9-M5.1) |
Expected Date/Location Hawaii Region |
OBSERVED M2.2 Predicted 1 day ahead |
Observed Date/Location 14 Oct '07, 13 km W of Puako Hawaii Lat 19.94 Lon -155.99 |