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Earthquake Predictions
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© J G Blanco
THE GREECE REGION
This region is newly defined as all areas that fall between latitudes 36°- 40°N* and longitudes 20°- 25°E*, whereas previously the region fell within a 350 km radius of Athens. The new definition (as of 12 February 2008) represents a 45% reduction in the region under study, but it includes most of Greece and Southern Greece and thus should have more relevance to their centers of population. New research has made this refinement possible and the new focus is expected to improve the prediction or forecasting of most earthquakes for the region.
*The above region of approximately 194,500 square km is nearly equal in area to a circular region having a radius of 250 km (e.g. the Los Angeles Region as defined on this web site). The Greece Region is defined as above, plus an error margin of ≈25 km will apply to its perimeter in order to include events that may occur close to the nominated boundaries of the region.
All earthquake predictions for the Greece Region are for the largest earthquake in the nominated 10-day period, plus an error margin of about one day, but no attempt is made to make forecasts for all periods because of the constraints of private research. Each table, with its original earthquake prediction, will remain subject to revisions or updates for 10 days.
Why updates may be necessary... because earthquakes interact in a very dynamic system. Just as in reporting the weather, the latest information must be taken into account to improve forecasting.
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SCROLL DOWN FOR TABLES
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STATISTICS FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION For period 13 August 2007 - 12 July 2008 (256 predictions)
SUCCESS RATES*
Mag Observed Events Predicted Events
(How many predicted?) (How many observed?)
Pred. Obs. %Correct Obs. Pred. %Correct
<M4 60 67 = 90% 58 66 = 88%
M4.0-4.9 76 85 = 89% 57 60 = 95%
M5.0-5.9 73 77 = 95% 90 96 = 94%
M6.0+ 25 27 = 93% 29 34 = 85%
___________________________________________ *These statistics are updated bi-monthly and refer to tabled predictions only, as no attempt
is made to predict all large earthquakes worldwide. Note that currently successful predictions are those which are ≈80% accurate on magnitude, and within a 10-day time window (plus an error margin of about one day), reflecting the fact that earthquake prediction is still an imprecise science. However, research here is aimed at improving this margin and currently 75% of all magnitude predictions have an error margin of only 15%. Any apparent numerical discrepancies between the two halves of the above table are due to the error margins: for example, an M6 category predicted quake might have come in at M5.8
OVERALL success rate from 256 predictions worldwide-
Observed events that were predicted (234/256) = 91.4%
Predicted events that were observed (234/256) = 91.4%
SCIENTIFIC: Correlation of Predicted & Observed Magnitudes
There is a highly significant correlation (r=0.90, P< .0001) between the full set of observed and predicted magnitudes, including 'false alarms' (Worldwide N=256 as of 12 July 2008).
EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION TABLES
M= Earthquake magnitude. See HOME page for further explanation of table entries.
Earthquake Location Maps - see the USGS web site for maps of earthquakes in these tables.
New 3-layer Table Format & Prediction Rules (25 Nov 07)
Please read following points to fully explain tables below:
1. The Original Earthquake Prediction, and details relating to it, are given in the top light blue layer of each table.
The 'expected date' (or dates) given here provide the best current estimate of when the largest earthquake event is most likely within the nominated 10-day window (date prediction made +10, or possibly ≈11 days). Please note that the time window now includes an error margin of ≈1 day which may extend it to include some closely predicted events, reflecting the fact that earthquake prediction is an imprecise science. The above estimates and other details may be updated, if necessary, in the next section of the table.
The Expected Range in Magnitude, for each event after 14th July 2008, is given as the predicted magnitude +/-1 magnitude (previously it was given as +/-0.5M). Statistical analyses of over 100 of the latest predictions show that 95% of them can be expected to fall within +/-1M of the predicted values, regardless of the region of the world involved. From 14th July 2008, any predictions which fall outside these limits by as little as 0.1M will be regarded as unsuccessful.
2. Revisions, if required, are given in the mid blue layer of each table, and these revisions are used in the final assessments of the results. Please see the statement above explaining why updates are desirable, and note that revisions are limited to a 10-day window. Revisions usually relate to
earthquake magnitude and expected timing, but may also include location.
3. The Observed Earthquake and details (for the event we were attempting to predict) are given in the bottom dark blue layer of each table. The event recorded here is the largest earthquake for the nominated 10-11 day period. 'PENDING...' simply means that the anticipated event has not yet happened, or that we are waiting for the event to be posted on the web site.
GREECE REGION
See also Long-term Forecasts
No. 12
PREDICTED M4.6 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 19 June 22-23 June (UTC) 2008 Predicted at 0903 hrs UTC (time window open to 29 June, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >90%
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OBSERVED M5.4 Observed Date/Location |
No. 11
PREDICTED M5.2 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 9 June 2008 12-13 June (UTC) most likely Predicted at 1115 hrs UTC (time window open to 18 June, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >90%
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REVISION nil
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| OBSERVED M5.0 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 96.2% 18 June at Lat 37.66° Lon 22.68° (EMSC) Predicted 9 days ahead 90 km W of Piraieús Southern Greece |
No. 10
PREDICTED M4.2 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 19 Apr '08 19-21 Apr (UTC) '08 Predicted at 2338 hrs UTC (time window open to 29 April, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >90%
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REVISION nil |
| OBSERVED M3.8 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 90.5% 22 April, Lat 36.81° Lon 22.14° (EMSC) Predicted 2 days ahead 163 S of Pátrai Southern Greece |
No. 9
PREDICTED M4.1 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 8 Apr '08 8-14 Apr (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0013 hrs UTC (time window open to 18 April, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >85%
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REVISED to M4.0 Expected Dates Revised at 1401 hrs, 16 April 16-18 April, approx. Updated range M3.5-M4.5 |
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OBSERVED M3.7 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 92.5% 18 April at 0903 hrs, Lat 36.33° Lon 21.73° Southern Greece |
No. 8
PREDICTED M6.3 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 24 Mar '08 24 Mar-3 Apr (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0047 hrs UTC (time window open to 3 Apr, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >75%
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REVISED to M4.0 Expected Dates Revised at 0704 hrs on 3 Apr 3 April, plus ≈1 day margin Updated range M3.2-M4.8 |
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OBSERVED M4.3 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 93.0% 4 April at 1132 hrs, Lat 36.33° Lon 21.71°
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No.7
PREDICTED M5.9 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 7 Mar '08 7-9 Mar (UTC) '08 Predicted at 2149 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 17 Mar + 1 day margin) Probability of event >85%
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REVISED to M5.4 Expected Date/Location Revised at 0600 hrs on 13 March 13-14 March Updated range M5.0-M6.0 Southern Greece
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OBSERVED M4.9 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 90.7% 14 March, Lat 36.12° Lon 22.00° Predicted 25 hours ahead 237 km South of Pátrai Southern Greece |
No. 6
PREDICTED M4.8 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 23 Feb '08 23-28 Feb (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0706 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 5 Mar) Probability of event >95%
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REVISED to M5.9 Expected Dates Revised 4 Mar at 1053 hrs March 4-5 Probability of event >90% Revised range M5.0-M7.0
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OBSERVED M4.5 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 76.3% 4 March at 13:25:24 hrs Predicted 2.5 hours ahead 245 km S of Pátrai, Lat 36.03° Lon 21.81° Southern Greece
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No. 5
PREDICTED M5.2 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 16 Feb '08 16-17 February (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0038 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 26 Feb) Probability of event >90%
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REVIEWS nil
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OBSERVED M6.2 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 83.9% 20 February, Lat 36.40°N Lon 21.71°E Predicted 4 days ahead 225 km SW of Athens, 197 S of Pátrai Southern Greece
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No. 4
PREDICTED M4.9 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 4 Feb '08 4-6 Feb (UTC) '08 Predicted at 1040 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 14 Feb) Probability of event >90%
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REVISIONS nil
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OBSERVED M6.9 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 71% 14 Feb, Lat 36.57°N, Lon 21.75°E (M6.9 reported by EMSC) 235 km SW of Athens, 186 S of Pátrai Southern Greece ________________________________ NOTE: The magnitude of this important earthquake was not predicted. Readers are reminded of the statement on the Home Page of this web site that some 10-15% of earthquakes are not yet predictable, and this earthquake appears to be one of those. However, in modeling the dynamics of earthquakes, much more can be learnt from failures than from successes, and so the above important event may lead to some valuable insights.
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No. 3
PREDICTED M4.9 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 24 Jan '08 24-29 January (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0328 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 2 Feb) Probability of event >90%
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REVIEWS nil
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OBSERVED M4.4 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 89.8% 29 January at Lat 37.69N, Lon 23.52E Predicted 5 days ahead Southern Greece
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No. 2
PREDICTED M4.9 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 10 Jan '08 10-20 January (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0338 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 20 Jan) Magnitude Range M4.4-M5.4 |
Reviews nil
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OBSERVED M4.6 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 93.9% 11 January Lat 37.18 N, Lon 22.63 E Predicted 1 day ahead 124 km SW of Piraieus Southern Greece
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No. 1
PREDICTED M4.6 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 13 Dec '07 13-18 December (UTC) '07 Predicted at 0050 hrs UTC (time window remains open 10 days to 23 Dec) Probability of event >90% |
REVISION nil |
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OBSERVED M4.5 Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 97.8% 18 December '07 Predicted 5 days ahead Lat 34.31 N, Lon 25 72 E, 126 km SE Iraklion CRETE |