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Earthquake Predictions Fiji Region within 500 km radius from Suva |
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THE FIJI REGION is defined as including those areas which fall within ≈500 km radius* of Suva at Lat -18.14° and
Lon 178.43°. The region excludes Tonga and Samoa, as of
14 Feb 2008, reducing the study region by over 80% to make predictions for Fiji more relevant.
*The radius is 500 km plus an ≈10% error margin of about 50 km in order to
include earthquake events that may occur close to the regional boundary.
Previously, from 1 December '07 to 14 February '08, the region included
those areas which fell within a 1250 km radius of the capital of Tonga (Nuku'alofa).
All earthquake predictions for the Fiji Region are for the
largest earthquake in the nominated 10-day period, plus an
error margin of about one day, but no attempt is made to make forecasts for all periods because of the constraints of private research. Each table, with
its original earthquake prediction, will remain subject to revisions or
updates for 10 days.
Why updates may be necessary... because earthquakes
interact in a very dynamic system. Just as in reporting the
weather, the latest information must be taken into account to improve forecasting.
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SCROLL DOWN FOR TABLES
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STATISTICS FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION For period 13 August 2007 - 12 July 2008 (256 predictions)
SUCCESS RATES*
Mag Observed Events Predicted Events
(How many predicted?) (How many observed?)
Pred. Obs. %Correct Obs. Pred. %Correct
<M4 60 67 = 90% 58 66 = 88%
M4.0-4.9 76 85 = 89% 57 60 = 95%
M5.0-5.9 73 77 = 95% 90 96 = 94%
M6.0+ 25 27 = 93% 29 34 = 85%
___________________________________________ *These statistics are updated bi-monthly and refer to tabled predictions only, as no attempt
is made to predict all large earthquakes worldwide. Note that currently successful predictions are those which are ≈80% accurate on magnitude, and within a 10-day time window (plus an error margin of about one day), reflecting the fact that earthquake prediction is still an imprecise science. However, research here is aimed at improving this margin and currently 75% of all magnitude predictions have an error margin of only 15%. Any apparent numerical discrepancies between the two halves of the above table are due to the error margins: for example, an M6 category predicted quake might have come in at M5.8
OVERALL success rate from 256 predictions worldwide-
Observed events that were predicted (234/256) = 91.4%
Predicted events that were observed (234/256) = 91.4%
SCIENTIFIC: Correlation of Predicted & Observed Magnitudes
There is a highly significant correlation (r=0.90, P< .0001) between the full set of observed and predicted magnitudes, including 'false alarms' (Worldwide N=256 as of 12 July 2008).
EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION TABLES
M= Earthquake magnitude. See HOME page for further explanation of table entries.
Earthquake Location Maps - see the USGS web site for maps of earthquakes in these tables.
New 3-layer Table Format & Prediction Rules (25 Nov 07)
Please read following points to fully explain tables below:
1. The Original Earthquake Prediction, and details relating to it, are given in the top light blue layer of each table.
The 'expected date' (or dates) given here provide the best current estimate of when the largest earthquake event is most likely within the nominated 10-day window (date prediction made +10, or possibly ≈11 days). Please note that the time window now includes an error margin of ≈1 day which may extend it to include some closely predicted events, reflecting the fact that earthquake prediction is an imprecise science. The above estimates and other details may be updated, if necessary, in the next section of the table.
The Expected Range in Magnitude, for each event after 14th July 2008, is given as the predicted magnitude +/-1 magnitude (previously it was given as +/-0.5M). Statistical analyses of over 100 of the latest predictions show that 95% of them can be expected to fall within +/-1M of the predicted values, regardless of the region of the world involved. From 14th July 2008, any predictions which fall outside these limits by as little as 0.1M will be regarded as unsuccessful.
2. Revisions, if required, are given in the mid blue layer of each table, and these revisions are used in the final assessments of the results. Please see the statement above explaining why updates are desirable, and note that revisions are limited to a 10-day window. Revisions usually relate to
earthquake magnitude and expected timing, but may also include location.
3. The Observed Earthquake and details (for the event we were attempting to predict) are given in the bottom dark blue layer of each table. The event recorded here is the largest earthquake for the nominated 10-11 day period. 'PENDING...' simply means that the anticipated event has not yet happened, or that we are waiting for the event to be posted on the web site.
See also Long-term Forecasts
No. 11
PREDICTED M6.5 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 20 Apr '08 20-30 Apr (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0315 hrs UTC (time window open to 30 April, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >85% within ≈500 km of Suva
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REVISED to M5.2 Expected Dates
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| OBSERVED M5.1 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 98.1% 30 April, Lat -17.39° Lon 175.89° Predicted 3 days ahead 280 km WNW of Suva, Fiji |
No. 10
PREDICTED M5.2 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 8 Apr '08 8-15 Apr (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0056 hrs UTC (time window open to 18 April, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >85% within ≈500 km of Suva
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REVISION nil
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OBSERVED M6.4 Observed Date/Location
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No. 9
PREDICTED M5.3 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 10 Mar '08 10-20 Mar (UTC) '08 Predicted at 1105 hrs UTC (window open to 20 March, plus ≈1 day margin) Probability of event >85% within 500 km of Suva, plus ≈50 km margin
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REVISION if needed is posted here
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| OBSERVED M5.0 Observed Date/Location
Magnitude accuracy 94.3% 22 March at 21:39:07 hrs, Lat -20.2° Lon -177.81° Predicted 12 days ahead 455 km ESE Suva
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No. 8
PREDICTED M6.3 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 7 Jan '08 7-17January (UTC) '08 Predicted at 0245 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 17 Jan '08) Probability of event ≥73% Fiji Region seems likely location |
REVISED to M5.9 Expected Date/Location Updated Range M5.0-M6.3 9-17 January '08 Probability of event >88% Fiji Region Revised at 1200 hrs on 9 January |
| OBSERVED M6.5 ObservedDate/Location
Magnitude accuracy 90.8% 15 January '08, Lat -21.90, Lon 179.52 Predicted 6 days ahead Fiji Region
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No. 7
PREDICTED M6.4 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 22 Dec '07 22-25 December (UTC) '07 Predicted at 0455 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 1 Jan '08) Probability of event >67% Tonga seems likely location |
REVISED to M5.8 Expected Date Revised at 0225 hrs on 22 Dec 22 Dec '07- 1 Jan '08 Updated range M5-M6
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| OBSERVED M5.7 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 98.3% 30 December '07 Lat -19.35, Lon -123.85 Predicted 8 days ahead TONGA |
No. 6
PREDICTED M6.8 Expected Date/Location Original prediction, 27 Nov '07 27-30 November (UTC) '07 Predicted at 2215 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 7 Dec) Probability of event >80%
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REVISED to M5.0 Expected Date/Location Revised 2340 hrs on 3 Dec UTC 3-7 December '07 (UTC) Updated range M4.8-M5.2 (Time window remains open to 7 Dec) Fiji-Tonga Region
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OBSERVED M5.1 Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 98% 1 December '07 Lat -21.49, Lon 106.31
Largest quake of 10-day period Fiji Region |
No. 5
PREDICTED M7.4 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 15 Nov '07 16-17 November (UTC) '07 Predicted at 1950 hrs UTC (time window open 10 days to 25 Nov) Probability of event >90% |
REVISED to M6.6 Expected Date Revised at 0320 hrs on 18 Nov 18-20 November '07 Updated range M6.5-M6.7 (Time window open until 25 Nov)
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OBSERVED M6.3 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 95.4% 19 November '07 00:52:12 hrs Predicted 21.5 hrs ahead. Original prediction 3 days ahead of FIJI REGION this the largest quake of 15-19 Nov. Lat -21.07, Lon 178.74 |
No. 4 (Predicted at 2230 hrs on 20 October, UTC, 2007)
See red updates in table (reviewed 2215 hrs on 27 Oct)
PREDICTED M6.6 (Originally predicted M6.4) |
Expected Date/Location 21-28 Oct '07
Tonga/Fiji/Vanuatu/Loyalty |
OBSERVED M6.2 Magnitude accuracy 93.9% Original prediction 1 day ahead |
Observed Date/Location Solomon Islands Region Lat -6.55, Lon 154.67 (Geoscience Aus.) Location NW of expectation |
No. 3 (Predicted at 0200 hrs on 14 October, 2007)
| PREDICTED M4.8 Probability of event >90% Range M4.7 - M5.0 |
Expected Date/Location Fiji /Loyalty Islands Region |
OBSERVED M5.2 Magnitude accuracy 92.3% Predicted 2 hrs ahead
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Observed Date/Location Lat -21.24, Lon 169.13 Fiji Region also had an M 4.5 |
No. 2 (Predicted on 5 October, 2007)
| PREDICTED M5.4 Probability of event >90% Range M5.0 - M5.7 |
Expected Date/Location Fiji Islands Region |
| OBSERVED M5.2 Magnitude accuracy 96.3% Predicted 1 day ahead |
Observed Date/Location Lat -23.27, Lon -177.26 |
No. 1 (Predicted on 3 October, 2007)
| PREDICTED M6.9 Probability of event >90% Range M6.8 - M7.0 |
Expected Date/Location Fiji Islands Region |
| OBSERVED M6.3 Magnitude accuracy 91.3% Predicted 2 days ahead |
Observed Date/Location Lat -25.13, Lon 179.43 |